Once and for all, hopefully this whole draft debacle with Greg Oden ends the NBA’s recent obsession with big men. There will always be tall men playing in the league, but looking for the next Dirk Nowitzki is a lost cause.
Despite all of the warning signs against drafting Greg Oden, the Portland Trail Blazers went ahead on June 28, 2007 and picked him anyway. Why? Apparently, his being a center proved too valuable too pass up.
I don’t know a single person who doesn’t salivate whenever the seven-foot “Blonde Bomber” (Dirk Nowitzki) swishes a three-pointer, but you’ve got realize that he’s as rare as they come. Taking away basketball god Tim Duncan out of the equation since he’s a mixture of center and power forward goodness, the last dominant center of the last fifteen years is Shaquille O’Neal.
NBA executives have gotten spoiled after Shaq was drafted in 2002 and subsequently dominated the paint. Shaq is that rare breed that has reinvented what a center should be: an overpowering dunk machine. Looking at the last few drafts, the only player that has found success as a true center is Yao Ming with his career points and rebounds per game averages of 18.5 and 8.9. I’m not even looking at Phoenix Suns star Amare Stoudemire since he mixes positions à la Duncan, and we’ll sweep the Detroit Darko experiment under the rug.
The reality is the game has sped up, and point guards and playmakers like Steve Nash and Jason Kidd have much more impacts on their teams than a tall guy constantly shifting in and out of the paint. Look at what LeBron James has done for the Cleveland Cavaliers or Dwyane Wade for the Miami Heat (especially when Shaq retires) or Carmelo Anthony for the Denver Nuggets. What has 2005 first overall pick Andrew Bogut done for the Milwaukee Bucks? How long has it taken the Los Angeles Clippers to recover from drafting Michael Olowokandi?
Article comments
1 - nate dogg
Yep, what's more important is to get a really good big man, not just a center. If your main scorer on your team is a big man, you will likely shoot a higher percentage because they will be taking their shots closer in.
If you don't have a very good big man, you have to have two-three perennial All-Stars to have a chance. Look at New Jersey, their small trio of Kidd/Jefferson/Carter hasn't done much at all. If they get Kristic back this year and he puts up 18-20 points and 10 rebounds, and can be counted on as a go-to scorer, then the Nets suddenly are the favorites. But it will be Kristic that will put the Nets over the top.
2 - RJ
Shaq was drafted in 2002? (Sorry for the lame typo-bash...)
It's true that a Shaq or a Hakeem or a Dirk (or a Duncan or a Stoudemire) is a great rarity, while more mobile playmakers like Wade and Jordan and LeBron and Kobe (and even Carmelo) are more plentiful, and therefore are a safer bet.
But it has to be pointed out that the payoff a team receives by landing a truly excellent "big man" is unparalleled.
A team with a younger version of Shaq becomes an instant contender. The supporting cast can be comprised of mainly scrubs, but with a truly talented center they are going to win a lot of games and probably make the playoffs.
The same cannot be said about teams who add a superstar guard or small forward. For example, the addition of Carmelo Anthony certainly made the Denver Nuggets a better team, but they haven't become a credible contender, and haven't even made it out of the First Round of the playoffs since he's been there. Kobe Bryant's Lakers missed the playoffs the first year after Shaq left, while Shaq's new team, the Miami Heat, led the Eastern Conference in regular season wins.
All I'm saying is, the risks are clearly higher when drafting a potential "superstar" center, but the potential rewards are higher as well.
3 - E. H. Munro
The Celtics didn't sign Ray Allen (you may be thinking of Allan Ray), they traded the fifth pick and garbage to the Supersonics for him. As I've written elsewhere, losing the lottery was the best thing that ever happened to the Celtics, not because of Oden (as I'd said it previously), but because it forced them to abandon their disastrous youth movement and trade for vet stars. The NBA is a veterans' league, and now Boston has three vet all-stars. Both Seattle and Portland are going to suck like Britney Spears after 12 shots of tequila next year due to rosters larded with players barely old enough to drink legally. Thankfully Boston's off that treadmill.
4 - Stevie B
Alonzo Mourning was a decent Center drafted after Shaq, but I agree that no center has reached his level of dominance in the last decade or so.