The following is a combination of two entries which I originally posted on my blog last night/early this morning.
Part 1
if (preg_match('/If Santana keeps pitching like he has for the last year-and-a-half — and there's no reason why he shouldn't, unless he somehow loses control of the changeup that vaulted him into the elite rank of pitchers — he'll command major money when free agency finally rolls around for him in 2009.
His ERA this season probably won't be as low as the 2.61 he posted last year, but he should bring it in somewhere between 3.00 and 3.15 which is pretty sweet in these offence-crazy days.
Don't miss a chance to catch a game that this guy pitches in. In two years time, when people talk about pitchers, there'll be Johan Santana and Mark Prior in one breath and then all the rest.
Part 2
if (preg_match('/| Pitcher | Age | Team | Years | Total $ | $ Per Year |
| Carl Pavano, SP | 29 | NY Yankees | 4 | $39,950,000 | $9,987,500 |
| Brad Radke, SP | 32 | Minnesota | 2 | 18,000,000 | 9,000,000 |
| Derek Lowe, SP | 31 | Los Angeles | 4 | 36,000,000 | 9,000,000 |
| Eric Milton, SP | 29 | Cincinnati | 3 | 25,500,000 | 8,500,000 |
| Matt Clement, SP | 30 | Boston | 3 | 25,500,000 | 8,500,000 |
| Russ Ortiz, SP | 30 | Arizona | 4 | 33,000,000 | 8,250,000 |
| Odalis Perez, SP | 27 | Los Angeles | 3 | 24,000,000 | 8,000,000 |
| Kris Benson, SP | 30 | NY Mets | 3 | 22,500,000 | 7,500,000 |
| Kevin Millwood, SP | 30 | Cleveland | 1 | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 |
| Jaret Wright, SP | 29 | NY Yankees | 3 | 21,000,000 | 7,000,000 |
| Jon Lieber, SP | 34 | Philadelphia | 3 | 21,000,000 | 7,000,000 |
| Paul Wilson, SP | 31 | Cincinnati | 2 | 8,200,000 | 4,100,000 |
| Orlando Hernandez, SP | 35 | Chicago Sox | 2 | 8,000,000 | 4,000,000 |
| Cory Lidle, SP | 32 | Philadelphia | 2 | 6,300,000 | 3,150,000 |
That's an average of $7,213,392.86 per year for the bunch, even with the lower salaries for Wilson, Orlando Hernandez, and Lidle. An average of less than three million dollars per year less than Santana signed for. And none of those guys are anywhere near the pitcher that Santana is. The best deals in the bunch are Radke, Clement, Odalis Perez, and Hernandez.
Article comments
1 - Eric Olsen
you are nothing if not eclectic John! Thi looks like a very good deal for the Twinkies but the Millwood deal with the Indians is even better (although only one year) if he is close to healthy. In fact the Juan Gonzalez deal (about $400K plus incentives) is THE deal of the year, period, if he even plays 100 games, hits 25 home runs, and gets 80 RBIs, all of which are pretty well guaranteed IF he can get in the time without breaking down
BTW, your font style seems to bleeding over past the post.
Thanks!
2 - John MacKenzie
I don't agree with you about Millwood, except that it's good that it's a one-year deal, Eric. His two best looking seasons, 1999 and 2002, were under the fine coaching eye of Leo Mazzone. And those two seasons look better in Millwood's ERA line than they actually were. The good things about those seasons is that he showed the best K/9 and K/BB ratios of his career.
Another thing that looks good but isn't is that Millwood gave up many, many less hits in those two seasons than he has in other years. It looks good, and it helps the ERA; problem is, it's not a sustainable ability. As Voros McCracken has shown with his DIPs system, pitchers have little-to-no control over whether or not a batted ball in play goes for a hit.
So Millwood's two best seasons were largely the result of good luck alloyed with the pitching sagacity of Leo Mazzone. I don't see him being likely to recreate that magic in Cleveland.
When we throw out the two seasons which were aberrations, we're left with the career line of a league-average, inning eating pitcher who's probably worth about what Paul Wilson is being (over)paid.
If Juan Gone reaches the numbers you suggest, he will be a steal for the Indians. Big if, though, given his track record for injury.
I tried to fix the font style. Sorry about that.
3 - Eric Olsen
fixed, looks fine - if he has a career average year, it will be a very good deal for the Indians