As baseball season has opened with exciting games and a surprising amount of offense, I've been playing catch-up on all the "preview" columns and magazines. I love to see which teams experts and writers are picking to win it all and which players they have taking him individual awards. This year, I have noticed a very interesting trend in regard to the American League MVP Award. Namely, that people are making some very surprising picks.
The Cleveland Indians host a plethora of sudden MVP candidates among their young stars, most noticeably do-it-all outfielder Grady Sizemore. The A's are being hailed as a World Series contender and many pundits have latched on to Oakland shortstop Bobby Crosby as an MVP candidate to boot. No less authorities on the game than Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, and Harold Reynolds have all predicted MVP hardware for Crosby.
On some level, these "reach" picks make sense. One reason is that everybody loves to pick a sleeper. It is the reason that you see people try to guess the upsets in the NCAA Tournament. It is more fun to be right about George Mason reaching the Final Four than it is to correctly pick UCLA to play in the title game. It is natural to see "creative" predictions, because being right is a lot more impressive when you are coming out of left field.
However, with the American League, I think it goes deeper than that. The prime candidates are Vlad Guerrero (injury concerns), A-Rod (unlikable and a boring choice since he won last year and in 2003), David Ortiz (still limited by his DH position), and Manny Ramirez (clearly insane). None of these players are appealing choices, so the desire to take a shot on someone fresh and exciting is even more appealing.
While it might make sense to cast your lot with a guy like Sizemore or Crosby, Is there any historical precedent for predicting a second or third-year player to win the AL MVP? Let's take a look at the last 10 winners and see what recent history tells us about the award. Where any of these winners young breakout stars?
1996 - Juan Gonzalez, OF, Texas Rangers. Juan Gone won the award in his sixth full season and already posted seasons of 43 and 46 home runs and in 1993 hit .310 with 46 home runs and 118 RBI.
Article comments
1 - Matthew T. Sussman
Jim Rome would say this was a "GREAT TAKE." MVPs may be given to the best season but it's polished with a lacquer of respect, meaning "what did you do in the previous years?"
So I'll have to go out and say that Travis Hafner is a candidate, because last year he finished 5th in the MVP voting and that was his "breakout year." (Although the '04 numbers were just as dandy.)
Granted, "Pronk" has yet to be named to an All-Star team (although I think he was a 31st man candidate).
2 - Adam Hoff
Hafner is a very good pick. He's like Teixeira in that he's only in his fourth "full" season, but he's had monster numbers that constitute prior breakout seasons. Other than Ichiro, no one has won before their fifth season in the past 10 years, but these guys have had such accelerated careers that they could do it and it wouldn't be an abberation at all. In fact, I would put them both in my "real" top five, along with A-Rod, Ortiz, and Vlad. Then the other four guys I listed above. That list was more to point out guys that would be more likely to bust out with a surprise MVP than guys like Crosby and Sizemore. Call them more realistic sleepers.
3 - Matthew T. Sussman
Ah, I see. But yeah I definitely think Vlad gets another trophy this year. Hafner -- if he can hit .300/30/100 again and 40 doubles, which oughta get his OPS around 1.000 -- will finish in the top five again.
4 - Adam Hoff
Early returns:
Only Crosby (from the "stay away from the youngster" group), and Konerko are off to slow starts. Every other player mentioned is playing well early, which is pretty wild.
Your guy Pronk is off to a terrific start, going .423/5/7 so far. Other guys looking good early:
Vlad: .483/1/5
Chavez: .300/5/9
Matsui: .393/3/8
Wells: .385/2/3
Also, we can probably rule out Michael Young and Mark Teixeira, since the Rangers are off to a 2-7 start and showing no signs of being able to contend in the AL West.
What does this tell us? Probably nothing. However, through the first week and a half of the season, Hafner, Chavez, and Matsui are playing great and look like some solid candidates to run with A-Rod, Vlad, and Ortiz.
5 - Matthew T. Sussman
Yeah, ain't telling us much. Because right now Ramon Hernandez is the MVP.
6 - Adam Hoff
Time for an update on the five "breakout" AL MVP candidates:
1. Ortiz. .288/9/17 with a 1.127 OPS.
2. Young. Hitting .371 with 13 runs and 13 RBI.
3. Wells. .400 with nine jacks and an AL-leading 22 RBI.
4. Konerko. .367/6/19 for hottest team in baseball.
5. Chavez. .286/8/17 on the junk food diet.
All these guys are playing well, but right now Wells has to be the April MVP in the American League. We'll see if he and the Jays can keep it going.