The biggest game of the college football year kicks off at 3:00 p.m. Saturday. Blogcritics’ Jay Skipworth and Josh Hathaway present cases for both teams and offer their picks for the big game.
Three Keys for Florida Victory by Jay Skipworth
1) Florida’s Defense.
It is safe to say Alabama hasn’t faced a tougher test than the one waiting this Saturday. Florida’s league leading defense is built in pressure, aggressiveness, and taking the ball away from the opponent. It is as hard to move the ball consistently against Florida as it is to score points – only nine times this season has the other team crossed the goalline against the Gators. Moreover, Florida is good as stuffing the run – only giving up 2.6 yards per attempt – which puts the onus on Alabama’s passing game even more. The Gators defensive backfield has produced 20 INTs this year and in a game against big, physical wide receivers of LSU (comparable to Alabama’s squad), Florida held them to 11 catches for 96 yards. That’s darn impressive. The loss of Carlos Dunlap on the defensive line due to suspension is noteworthy and he will be sorely missed. However, Florida possesses strength in scheme and quality depth which helps to cover for that loss and gives them a distinct advantage in this game.
2) Florida’s Coaching Staff.
It is not a matter of Florida’s staff being better than Alabama’s as much as it is Florida’s staff has experience in these games and beyond and it all starts with the head coach, Urban Meyer. It’s hard to describe Meyer without using the word “winner” in the report. Five double-digit win season, four conference titles, two undefeated regular seasons, two BCS Championships, a number one overall NFL draft pick, a Heisman trophy quarterback, and 95 total wins over his nine-year head coaching career. At Florida, he’s 56-9 overall and this may not even be the best team he’s fielded for the Gators. The supporting staff is excellent (don’t be surprised to see some of them plucked from the sidelines by season’s end) and they get maximum effort from highly-touted players. That’s not a small feat. It’s rare for Alabama’s Nick Saban to be equaled by the opposing sideline. Florida’s Meyer may just be better.
3) Tim Tebow.
Without going into too much hyperbole, Tebow is the X-factor, been there done it all, leader every team covets at the signal caller position. Even when it doesn’t seem possible for him to do something else, he finds ways to do it. Tebow’s won 34 times as a starter and lost only five times (four of those coming in his first year as starter). He’s thrown 84 TDs against 15 interceptions and rushed for a league record 56 TDs. Besides the insane stats, the leadership skills are undeniable and, maybe, unbeatable in big games like this one. Last year going into the fourth quarter, Florida was against the ropes and then Tebow made plays – with his arm no less – to bring them back to two fourth quarter scores against roughly the same Alabama team he’ll face Saturday. It’s hard to go against this guy with the big prizes are on the line.
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Article comments
1 - Matthew T. Sussman
Remember in 2006 when Ohio State-Michigan were No. 1 and No. 2, and the game was a crazy 42-39 finish? Back then I argued that the game was so good and so close, they should play again for the BCS championship.
I don't see it happening again, because of all the other undefeateds, but it's a tempting proposal if it's as good as last year's UF-Alabama game.
2 - Jay Skipworth
Suss,
That's a good example. I, like you, think there are other teams that would move into consideration if Texas falls to Nebraska, but the rematch talk with surface nonetheless.
3 - Josh Hathaway
Jay, I don't think Alabama can knock Tebow out of the game but do think they can have success limiting him and wearing him down. He'll never give up and he'll never relent but I think a relentless pounding can diminish him over four quarters and Alabama can do that.
As for Florida's offensive totals versus last year, I don't think they've faced as many good defenses as Alabama did this year. The Tide have faced stacked fronts and blitzes aimed at McElroy. Florida is better at them but they won't be surprised. Similarly, the aspects of Florida that have changed make them easier for Alabama to defend. Florida is a great, great champion team who can absolutely repeat but the gap has narrowed in my mind.
4 - Jay Skipworth
I'd go as far to say the gap between these two teams and the rest if the league has widened.
As far as defensive fronts, Florida has seen people stack it for three years. Also, they played some of the same opponents with similar results. Alabama did better against Miss. State and Arkansas mainly because UF uncharacteristically turned it over in those games. Alabama will have to force turnovers and limit Florida's offense from third and short situations. Alabama is capable and we'll see if they can put it all together Saturday.
5 - SteveFC
Good article Jay, although I do think Bama wins this one. Florida isn't as good as last season, while Bama is about the same, but more balanced. Their running game isn't as good, but their passing has improved. Florida is more reliant on Tebow than they were last season and doesn't have the playmakers that Bama does. If you ask me if Tebow goes down, can Florida win, I say no. If you ask me if Ingram goes down, can Bama win, I say certainly.
6 - FCEtier
Well written, thorough research, nice attention to details. Both writers made solids points in favor of their position. I hope the game is well played and that penalties are not a major factor.
I'm not a betting man and if I was, I would not bet against a Saban-coached defense!
'Bama by 6 or less.
7 - spencer
I dont care who wins I like bothe teams!
8 - spencer
tewbo is good I hope he goes to the NFL and plays on the colts