RJ's Pick: Dallas by 3
Philadelphia 2-1 at Chicago 1-2 - 8:15 PM (Line: Philadelphia by 3)
Last Week: Philadelphia beat Pittsburgh, 15-6. The Eagles defense racked up a total of nine sacks. Chicago lost at home to the Buccaneers in overtime, 27-24. Brandon Lloyd caught six passes for 124 yards and a score (his first TD since 2005) in the loss.
What To Expect: Donovan McNabb should have great success against the Bears secondary. Matt Forte will struggle to get more than a yard or two per carry against the Eagles run defense. Kyle Orton will likely spend a significant portion of the game laying on his back, with a very large man on top of him. (He might like that more than you'd think.) What I'm saying is, don't expect a close game.
RJ's Pick: Philadelphia by 10
*Monday September 29, 2008*
Baltimore 2-0 at Pittsburgh 2-1 - 8:30 PM (Line: Pittsburgh by 5.5)
Last Week: Baltimore beat Cleveland, 28-10. Le'Ron McClain rushed for two touchdowns, the first (and second) of his career. Pittsburgh lost to the Eagles, 15-6. The Steelers were held to just 33 yards rushing on 19 attempts.
What To Expect: Ravens QB Joe Flacco has a flaccid (lol) quarterback rating of 55.7 through two games. But Baltimore has a solid defense, one of the best in the league, and we saw just how bad the Steelers looked against a good defensive team last week. Also, Willie Parker is injured and will not be able to play. However, Pittsburgh has one of the top defensive units in the league themselves. I expect a very low-scoring game (bet the under!).
RJ's Pick: Pittsburgh by 3
[Bye Week Teams: Detroit Lions 0-3, Indianapolis Colts 1-2, Miami Dolphins 1-2, New England Patriots 2-1, New York Giants 3-0, Seattle Seahawks 1-2]
(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)
WEEKLY RESULTS (2008):
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - RJ Elliott
Here are some other "expert" picks worth taking a look at.
2 - EEL
Here are my picks for week 4. 11-5(straight up) last week.
(Straight up )Week 4
Bengals
Jags
Broncs
Falcons
Jets
49ers (Always)
Pack
Titans
Chargers
Bills
Cowgirls
Eagles
Ravens- Monday
GOOD LUCK !!!
3 - smokytla
Okay, as I promised, I'm gonna post the results from my research. What I am posting is the result of 83 people's picks (from sources such as espn, cbs, msn, sporting news and many more). The collective winning record (from the winning overall pick for each game)from these experts, for the season, is 35 and 12. This is better than any individual expert. I only have a 30-17 record because, instead of going with the research, I just "HAD to go with my niners and the packers etc" 8^) Anyhoo, the highest "expert" record I have on my spreadsheet is 34.
I am going to post the collective winning picks and the breakdown of how many picked which team. I'll post 2 different ways...the total picks, then the breakdown of just people who have 33 & 34 wins for the season. For this particular week, the winning pick is the same for both breakdowns. Other weeks, the overall may be one team but the higher scoring experts might be different....
Out of 83 sources
NO 69 picks to SF 14 picks
NYJ 48 to AZ 35
GB 57 to TB 26
Car 76 to Atl 7
Cin 61 to Cle 22
Jax 78 to Hou 5
Ten 65 to Min 18
Den 73 to KC 10
SD 75 to Oak 8
Buf 71 to StL 12
Dal 78 to Was 5
Phi 61 to Chi 22
Pit 65 to Bal 17 (only 82 because Jaworski doesn't pick the mon night game)
For the top 7 scorers of the season (the 33 and 34 scores)
NO 6-1
NYJ 5-2
GB 4-3
Car 7-0
Cin 6-1
Jax 7-0
Ten 7-0
Den 6-1
SD 6-1
Buf 6-1
Dal 7-0
Phi 6-1
Pit 7-0
I hope this information is useful! Please let me know because my feelings won't be hurt if you wanna tell me that I'm just using up valuable blog space.... 8^)
4 - alessandro
Smokytla, good work. Interesting.
5 - Adam
Things are going well for me going into the fourth week 32-15. At espn I am beating all but 3 experts, who I am all tied with oddly enough, and losing to Accuscore by one game. But Accuscore is a machine, (which will one day become self aware and rule us all) so I'm not getting down on myself too much.
I will also say RJ, you go with the road team far too much. The safe choice is usually the right choice. All 4 of my bad picks last week were home teams beating road teams. But I am going to give myself a muligan on the Pats vs the Fins game as there should be a rule you can only score so many TD's in one game.
And now my picks for week 4...
1. The Titans will beat out the Vikings, who are now realizing that being pumped up during the off season doesn't actually make you a better team.
2. Denver will win over the Cheifs and my fantasy star Cutler (who I usually drafted in the 5th or 6th round) will have another steller game.
3. I think the Saints can beat out the 49er's in their own house. They had a good game offensively last week, and I think home team advantage helps the defense more as well. I've also yet to give the 49ers the much coveted "Consistant" badge either.
4. I also think the Jets will beat out the still over rated Cards at home. I do think it will be a close high scoring game though with 2 gunslingers in the pocket.
5. I'm going to go with the Pack on the road over Tampa, even though they are a good team. I just think the Pack is better.
6. Carolina will win one at home as well and DJ Hackett will have a excellent game because he is starting on my a couple of my fantasy teams because of other being on a bye week. He was good back in Seattle if he was healthy after all.
7. The Jags are just going to walk all over the Texans, enough said.
8. I think the Bengels will beat the Browns in what could be the most unexciting game of the year. Unless of course the Rams and the Cheifs meet this year which I think they don't.
9. The Chargers will also beat out the rival Raiders, who are still doing better than I thought they would this year.
10. The Bills are going to send the few Rams fans home before the half as they walk all over the home team. Trent Green will get the bench and Steve Jackson will just start taking snaps and running it to shave off the 1 second a hand off requires. Okay, probably not but it would be funny.
11. Dallas will beat the Redskins, but the Skins will still have a good showing when all is said and done.
12. The Eagles will also beat the Bears, who will also play a respectable game but just got beat by a better team.
13. And finally the Steelers will beat out the Ravens, but probably in a close low scoring game. I will also get a text msg from a drunk army buddy about how last week against the Eagles was just a fluke and his team is going all the way this year.
6 - alessandro
Min, Den, NO, NYJ, GB, Car, Jac, Cin, SD, Buf, Dal, Phi, Bal.
7 - DOM
week 4 = predicatble?
smokylta cool stuff... i like how 12 out of 14 games are at least 3 to 1! the other two games jets vs cards and tb vs pack.. well theyre pk on spread as well..
anyways.. 28-19 overall..
Browns
Vikings
Broncos
Saints
Arizona
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Jags
Chargers
Bills
Dallas
Eagles
Steelers
8 - RJ Elliott
EEL: Thanks for the picks. Nice to see someone else pick the 49ers!
smokytla: Thank you for taking the time and the effort to post the results of your research. (Not a waste of space at all!)
Adam: Thanks for contributing. You may be right about my road picks ... we'll find out one way or the other in about 24 hours!
alessandro: Thanks as always.
DOM: Same as above.
I would greatly appreciate it if everyone could "Digg" my weekly NFL articles. If you're not registered there, I promise you it's quick, easy, and free. Thanks.
- RJ
9 - smokytla
Glad you guys like ... 8^) I will continue to post my findings then ... RJ, you had a link to Sunday Countdown -- that is actually one of my sources.
How does one "digg" your articles/register?
It was a lonnnnnng week -- can't wait til 10am tomorrow!
-Smoky T
10 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
Carolina 24, Atlanta 9 - RJ 0-1
Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 12 - RJ 1-1
Jacksonville 30, Houston 27 (in OT) - RJ 2-1
KC 33(!), Denver 19 - RJ 2-2
11 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
NO 31, SF 17 - RJ 2-3
Jets 56(!), Arizona 35 - RJ 2-4
12 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
TB 30, GB 21 - RJ 3-4
Tennessee 30, Vikings 17 - RJ 4-4
13 - RJ Elliott
ESPN's NFL "Experts" through eight games:
Wickersham 6-2
Fleming 5-3
Hoge 4-4
Jaworski 4-4
Schlereth 4-4
Allen 4-4
Mortensen 5-3
Golic 6-2
Accuscore 5-3
Pick 'em 5-3
14 - smokytla
I'm so pissed ... I found out Palmer wasn't playing and was going to change to Cle but got sidetracked and didn't.... wah! And, hello, what's up with KC? And St Louis? And the frickin raiders? Thought this week was going to be much more predictable! Sigh. So far, the best "expert" score is 7 ... one of my sources has 4 out of 6 experts who picked 7! I think only 3 others got a 7! What a disappointment this week again....
15 - smokytla
okay, so i worried too soon about St Louis and Raiders ... phew ... after KC (and Miami last week) I got prematurely worried. 8^)
16 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
SD 28, Oakland 18 - RJ 5-4
(It's official: The Raiders are choke-artists! Leading 15-3 at home going into the 4th quarter, they give up 25 points and the final 15 minutes and lose again. Lane Kiffin will likely be unemployed by the time this comment goes through...)
17 - smokytla
okay, so i worried too soon about St Louis and Raiders ... phew ... after KC (and Miami last week) I got prematurely worried. 8^)
18 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Buffalo 31, Rams 14 - RJ 6-4
(Scott Linehan is probably toast now, too...)
19 - RJ Elliott
smokytla - How about that Redskins-Cowboys game?
20 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Redskins 26, Dallas 24 - RJ 6-5
21 - smokytla
Happy bout the Cowgirl loss even though I did pick them (all but one in my pool did) -- maybe they will have a little humility now and humble"ness" ....?? Nah, never ... especially as long as they have "third person" "nobody can catch me" TO on their team) 8^)
22 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Bears 24, Eagles 20 - RJ 6-6
23 - EEL
Man my picks looked like crap this week 5-10. I picked a few upsets but the wrong ones ! Someone explain the play callin on 1st and goal for the EAGLES game ( NO WESTBROOK )?
24 - smokytla
EEL
I didn't do much better -- only got 7 for the week. And somebody really does need to explain what's gotta be the stupidest play call of the day. Uh, hello ... what WERE they thinking? I was dumbfounded by that maneuver. It was like they wanted to lose the game. Frustrating day yesterday for sure.
25 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Steelers 23, Baltimore 20 (in OT) - RJ 7-6 (and I nailed the spread!)