I went 10-6 last week. That puts me at 29-18 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.
Here are my picks for the NFL's Week 4:
*Sunday September 28, 2008*
RJ's Lame-Game Of The Week: Cleveland 0-3 at Cincinnati 0-3 - 1:00 PM (Line: Cincinnati by 3)
Last Week: Cleveland was beaten by Baltimore, 28-10. The Browns managed just 169 total net yards and turned the ball over three times (all Derek Anderson INTs). Cincinnati lost to the Giants in overtime, 26-23. T. J. Houshmandzadeh caught 12 passes for 146 yards and a TD in the loss.
What To Expect: The Bengals have essentially no pass rush (just one sack for the entire team through three games). This is good news for Derek Anderson, who's been sacked 7 times already this season. Anderson isn't used to facing much pressure; he was sacked just 14 times all of last year (and he started in 15 games). The pass rush has clearly rattled him so far this season: He's thrown five interceptions and has a dismal quarterback rating of 43.5. So the fact that he'll presumably have plenty of time in the pocket this week leads me to believe that the Browns will be able to put some points on the board for a change (they've scored just 26 points total this year, last in the NFL). Therefore, I think they'll pull off the upset on the road.
RJ's Pick: Cleveland by 2
Minnesota 1-2 at Tennessee 3-0 - 1:00 PM (Line: Tennessee by 3)
Last Week: Minnesota beat the Panthers, 20-10. The offense dominated the time-of-possession, and the defense sacked Jake Delhomme five times and forced two fumbles. Tennessee defeated Houston, 31-12. LenDale White ran for two scores and the defense intercepted Matt Schaub three times.
What To Expect: The Vikings have an excellent run defense and are clearly a better offensive team with Gus Frerotte under center. The Titans have a great all-around defense (they've given up just 29 points total this season, best among NFL teams that have played three games), and are clearly a better offensive team with Kerry Collins starting at quarterback. I don't expect a blowout, but I do believe the home team will get it done.
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - RJ Elliott
Here are some other "expert" picks worth taking a look at.
2 - EEL
Here are my picks for week 4. 11-5(straight up) last week.
(Straight up )Week 4
Bengals
Jags
Broncs
Falcons
Jets
49ers (Always)
Pack
Titans
Chargers
Bills
Cowgirls
Eagles
Ravens- Monday
GOOD LUCK !!!
3 - smokytla
Okay, as I promised, I'm gonna post the results from my research. What I am posting is the result of 83 people's picks (from sources such as espn, cbs, msn, sporting news and many more). The collective winning record (from the winning overall pick for each game)from these experts, for the season, is 35 and 12. This is better than any individual expert. I only have a 30-17 record because, instead of going with the research, I just "HAD to go with my niners and the packers etc" 8^) Anyhoo, the highest "expert" record I have on my spreadsheet is 34.
I am going to post the collective winning picks and the breakdown of how many picked which team. I'll post 2 different ways...the total picks, then the breakdown of just people who have 33 & 34 wins for the season. For this particular week, the winning pick is the same for both breakdowns. Other weeks, the overall may be one team but the higher scoring experts might be different....
Out of 83 sources
NO 69 picks to SF 14 picks
NYJ 48 to AZ 35
GB 57 to TB 26
Car 76 to Atl 7
Cin 61 to Cle 22
Jax 78 to Hou 5
Ten 65 to Min 18
Den 73 to KC 10
SD 75 to Oak 8
Buf 71 to StL 12
Dal 78 to Was 5
Phi 61 to Chi 22
Pit 65 to Bal 17 (only 82 because Jaworski doesn't pick the mon night game)
For the top 7 scorers of the season (the 33 and 34 scores)
NO 6-1
NYJ 5-2
GB 4-3
Car 7-0
Cin 6-1
Jax 7-0
Ten 7-0
Den 6-1
SD 6-1
Buf 6-1
Dal 7-0
Phi 6-1
Pit 7-0
I hope this information is useful! Please let me know because my feelings won't be hurt if you wanna tell me that I'm just using up valuable blog space.... 8^)
4 - alessandro
Smokytla, good work. Interesting.
5 - Adam
Things are going well for me going into the fourth week 32-15. At espn I am beating all but 3 experts, who I am all tied with oddly enough, and losing to Accuscore by one game. But Accuscore is a machine, (which will one day become self aware and rule us all) so I'm not getting down on myself too much.
I will also say RJ, you go with the road team far too much. The safe choice is usually the right choice. All 4 of my bad picks last week were home teams beating road teams. But I am going to give myself a muligan on the Pats vs the Fins game as there should be a rule you can only score so many TD's in one game.
And now my picks for week 4...
1. The Titans will beat out the Vikings, who are now realizing that being pumped up during the off season doesn't actually make you a better team.
2. Denver will win over the Cheifs and my fantasy star Cutler (who I usually drafted in the 5th or 6th round) will have another steller game.
3. I think the Saints can beat out the 49er's in their own house. They had a good game offensively last week, and I think home team advantage helps the defense more as well. I've also yet to give the 49ers the much coveted "Consistant" badge either.
4. I also think the Jets will beat out the still over rated Cards at home. I do think it will be a close high scoring game though with 2 gunslingers in the pocket.
5. I'm going to go with the Pack on the road over Tampa, even though they are a good team. I just think the Pack is better.
6. Carolina will win one at home as well and DJ Hackett will have a excellent game because he is starting on my a couple of my fantasy teams because of other being on a bye week. He was good back in Seattle if he was healthy after all.
7. The Jags are just going to walk all over the Texans, enough said.
8. I think the Bengels will beat the Browns in what could be the most unexciting game of the year. Unless of course the Rams and the Cheifs meet this year which I think they don't.
9. The Chargers will also beat out the rival Raiders, who are still doing better than I thought they would this year.
10. The Bills are going to send the few Rams fans home before the half as they walk all over the home team. Trent Green will get the bench and Steve Jackson will just start taking snaps and running it to shave off the 1 second a hand off requires. Okay, probably not but it would be funny.
11. Dallas will beat the Redskins, but the Skins will still have a good showing when all is said and done.
12. The Eagles will also beat the Bears, who will also play a respectable game but just got beat by a better team.
13. And finally the Steelers will beat out the Ravens, but probably in a close low scoring game. I will also get a text msg from a drunk army buddy about how last week against the Eagles was just a fluke and his team is going all the way this year.
6 - alessandro
Min, Den, NO, NYJ, GB, Car, Jac, Cin, SD, Buf, Dal, Phi, Bal.
7 - DOM
week 4 = predicatble?
smokylta cool stuff... i like how 12 out of 14 games are at least 3 to 1! the other two games jets vs cards and tb vs pack.. well theyre pk on spread as well..
anyways.. 28-19 overall..
Browns
Vikings
Broncos
Saints
Arizona
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Jags
Chargers
Bills
Dallas
Eagles
Steelers
8 - RJ Elliott
EEL: Thanks for the picks. Nice to see someone else pick the 49ers!
smokytla: Thank you for taking the time and the effort to post the results of your research. (Not a waste of space at all!)
Adam: Thanks for contributing. You may be right about my road picks ... we'll find out one way or the other in about 24 hours!
alessandro: Thanks as always.
DOM: Same as above.
I would greatly appreciate it if everyone could "Digg" my weekly NFL articles. If you're not registered there, I promise you it's quick, easy, and free. Thanks.
- RJ
9 - smokytla
Glad you guys like ... 8^) I will continue to post my findings then ... RJ, you had a link to Sunday Countdown -- that is actually one of my sources.
How does one "digg" your articles/register?
It was a lonnnnnng week -- can't wait til 10am tomorrow!
-Smoky T
10 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
Carolina 24, Atlanta 9 - RJ 0-1
Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 12 - RJ 1-1
Jacksonville 30, Houston 27 (in OT) - RJ 2-1
KC 33(!), Denver 19 - RJ 2-2
11 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
NO 31, SF 17 - RJ 2-3
Jets 56(!), Arizona 35 - RJ 2-4
12 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
TB 30, GB 21 - RJ 3-4
Tennessee 30, Vikings 17 - RJ 4-4
13 - RJ Elliott
ESPN's NFL "Experts" through eight games:
Wickersham 6-2
Fleming 5-3
Hoge 4-4
Jaworski 4-4
Schlereth 4-4
Allen 4-4
Mortensen 5-3
Golic 6-2
Accuscore 5-3
Pick 'em 5-3
14 - smokytla
I'm so pissed ... I found out Palmer wasn't playing and was going to change to Cle but got sidetracked and didn't.... wah! And, hello, what's up with KC? And St Louis? And the frickin raiders? Thought this week was going to be much more predictable! Sigh. So far, the best "expert" score is 7 ... one of my sources has 4 out of 6 experts who picked 7! I think only 3 others got a 7! What a disappointment this week again....
15 - smokytla
okay, so i worried too soon about St Louis and Raiders ... phew ... after KC (and Miami last week) I got prematurely worried. 8^)
16 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
SD 28, Oakland 18 - RJ 5-4
(It's official: The Raiders are choke-artists! Leading 15-3 at home going into the 4th quarter, they give up 25 points and the final 15 minutes and lose again. Lane Kiffin will likely be unemployed by the time this comment goes through...)
17 - smokytla
okay, so i worried too soon about St Louis and Raiders ... phew ... after KC (and Miami last week) I got prematurely worried. 8^)
18 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Buffalo 31, Rams 14 - RJ 6-4
(Scott Linehan is probably toast now, too...)
19 - RJ Elliott
smokytla - How about that Redskins-Cowboys game?
20 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Redskins 26, Dallas 24 - RJ 6-5
21 - smokytla
Happy bout the Cowgirl loss even though I did pick them (all but one in my pool did) -- maybe they will have a little humility now and humble"ness" ....?? Nah, never ... especially as long as they have "third person" "nobody can catch me" TO on their team) 8^)
22 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Bears 24, Eagles 20 - RJ 6-6
23 - EEL
Man my picks looked like crap this week 5-10. I picked a few upsets but the wrong ones ! Someone explain the play callin on 1st and goal for the EAGLES game ( NO WESTBROOK )?
24 - smokytla
EEL
I didn't do much better -- only got 7 for the week. And somebody really does need to explain what's gotta be the stupidest play call of the day. Uh, hello ... what WERE they thinking? I was dumbfounded by that maneuver. It was like they wanted to lose the game. Frustrating day yesterday for sure.
25 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Steelers 23, Baltimore 20 (in OT) - RJ 7-6 (and I nailed the spread!)