What To Expect: The Colts are last in the league in rushing yards per game. They are next-to-last in yards allowed on the ground per game. Shockingly, they are 0-2 at home. And they haven't even really played anybody yet: Chicago (2-2), Minnesota (1-3), and Jacksonville (2-2). The Texans give up a lot of points, but they have a decent pass defense. This is sort of an unpredictable matchup. I'll go with Indy, under the (relatively safe) assumption that Peyton Manning will find a way to get it done.
RJ's Pick: Indianapolis by 1
Tampa Bay 3-1 at Denver 3-1 - 4:05 PM (Line: Broncos by 3.5)
Last Week: Tampa Bay beat Green Bay, 30-21. Earnest Graham was terrific, rushing for 111 yards and a TD on 20 carries. Denver lost to Kansas City, 33-19. Eddie Royal made 9 catches for 104 yards, but also fumbled the ball away once.
What To Expect: Tampa Bay is (surprisingly, to me at least) in the top-ten in most offensive categories. However, one category that is not true for is points-per-game. That's because of a sub-par red zone offense. In 18 trips to the RZ in four games, they have just 7 TDs. While that might seem like a good deal if you have Buccaneers kicker Matt Bryant to your fantasy team, I don't think Jon Gruden is all that happy about it. (By the way, my heart goes out to the entire Bryant family, who are no doubt still in unimaginable pain after a truly tragic loss.) The Broncos have the league's number one offense in total yards. Jay Cutler is having a terrific year, although he needs to watch those INTs. Defensively, the Broncos are abysmal. This should be a high-scoring game. It's usually wise to go with the Broncos at home unless you have a really good reason not to, which there doesn't seem to be here.
RJ's Pick: Denver by 7
Buffalo 4-0 at Arizona 2-2 - 4:15 PM (Line: Cardinals by 1)
Last Week: Buffalo beat St. Louis, 31-14. Fred Jackson gained 46 yards and scored a touchdown (the first of his career) on just 7 rushing attempts. Arizona got crushed by the New York Jets, 56-35. This game deserves some comment. The Cardinals turned the ball over seven times, including three Kurt Warner interceptions (and three more Kurt Warner fumbles). Yet Warner managed 472 passing yards for the game, and three Cardinals wide receivers had over 100 receiving yards. The score was actually 34-0 at halftime, before Arizona cut the lead to 34-21 late in the 3rd quarter. Weird, wild stuff.
What To Expect: The Bills are 4-0 for the first time since the other Bush was President. Their offense isn't really all that spectacular, but their defense is holding opponents to fewer than 16 points-per-game. The Cardinals have dropped two straight. Their offense is pretty one-dimensional: Kurt Warner throws the ball an average of 35 times a game, while their running backs average just 3.5 yards per carry. This one could go either way, but I think you have to pick the undefeated team over the team that's lost two in a row.
Article comments
1 - RJ Elliott
NEWS FLASH: Bears suspend defensive tackle Tommie Harris.
2 - EEL
Here are my picks for WEEK 5. Hope i do better than last week! ( NO SPREAD )
BILLS
TITANS
PANTHERS
COLTS
CHARGERS
BEARS - SORRY R.J :-)
PACKERS
GIANTS
REDSKINS
BRONCOS
COWGIRLS
49ERS - 9 ERS !
JAGS
SAINTS
3 - Anthony D
No way 49ers are going to win!!!!!!
4 - Jack Y
BALTIMORE (+3.0) over Tennessee
Atlanta (+6.5) over GREEN BAY
DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago
Kansas City (+9.5) over CAROLINA
Indianapolis (-3.0) over HOUSTON
San Diego (-6.5) over MIAMI
Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Seattle (+7.0) over NY GIANTS
DENVER (-3.0) over Tampa Bay
New England (-3.0) over SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati (+17.0) over DALLAS
Buffalo (+1.0) over ARIZONA
Pittsburgh (+4.0) over JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) over Minnesota
5 - smokytla
Hey everyone! I'm posting this week's research. This week is out of 82 "expert" picks with the exception of the NO game cuz Jaworski doesn't pick and the GB/Atl game only has 74 picks since 2 sources seem to have missed that game for some reason. The first set is of the total picks (which, using the winning team out of the total picks has a record of 43 wins for the season which is 1 better than any individual expert), the second is of all "experts" who have a season record of 40, 41 and 42 ... and the third is narrowed down to just the 3 who have a record of 42.
82 total picks:
Car 77-5
Ten 59-23
Chi 66-16
Ind 65-17
GB 69-5
SD 69-13
NYG 75-5
Phi 67-15
Den 65-17
AZ 44-38
NE 68-14
Dal 78-4
Jax 60-22
NO 67-14
"Experts" with Season record of 40 and up:
Car 18-0
Ten 13-5
Chi 14-4
Ind 13-5
GB 18-0
SD 15-3
NYG 18-0
Phi 18-0
Den 15-3
AZ 15-3
NE 15-3
Dal 18-0
Jax 15-3
NO 16-2
Top 3 "experts" ... with 42 as their season recordCar 3-0
Ten 3-0
Chi 3-0
Ind 2-1
GB 3-0
SD 3-0
NYG 3-0
Phi 3-0
Den 3-0
AZ 2-1
NE 2-1
Dal 3-0
Jax 2-1
NO 3-0
Hopefully it will be a better week this week and hope this info helps....
6 - RJ Elliott
Thanks EEL and Jack Y for your picks, and smokytla for posting the results of your research.
I believe this was the longest NFL Picks article I've ever written. Would anyone mind terribly if next week was unusually brief? I have an insane amount of school work to do over the coming week or so ... :-/
7 - CallmeMaddy
Nice picks. I'm not very good at picking, but I'm going with Pittsburgh. Mainly, because Pittsburgh's my team.
Oh, and I believe they are starting Moore (3rd string rb, because Mendenhall--who I hate--is out) and they resigned Gary Russell (Ew ...)
The offensive line really does suck. Poor Ben.
Sigh. Well, I hope the Steelers beat the Jags. They're a tough team, so I'm worried.
Maddy
8 - alessandro
Car - But if you're playing the spread I'd go with KC.
NO - Two unpredictable teams. Passing over running for this one.
Det - Orton is suddenly prolific but a dead-cat bounce for the Lions here.
GB - I hate these game-day QB decisions. Still, I just can't bring myself to pick the Falcons and see them go 3-2 to GB's 2-3.
SD - Miami is much improved and can possibly win, but SD will prove too much for the fish.
Sea- My contrarian pick of the week. Yeah, yeah the 'Hawks suck on the road but some things are in their favor here; healthy and no Burress.
Phi - I just wish Reid made better play calling in key situations. Iggles could easily be 4-0.
Ind- Big division game. Hou hasn't been kind to me. Watch them win. Bastards.
Den - How the heck did Garcia end up 3rd string?
No respect, no respect I tell ya. Sad about Bryant. Terrible.
Ari - Buf 5-0? Doesn't sound right but it can happen here.
Jac - Pittsburgh narrowly dodged Baltimore. They won't here.
NE - A new documentary is in the making: Finding Good Tom Brady.
Dal - The Cowboys haven't convinced me. Wade doesn't seem right to me. Nonenevertheless, they should beat WKRP in Cincinnati.
Bal - I have no feel for the Houston's, Tennessee's and Baltimore's of this world. I'm pathetic and worthless that way.
9 - DOM
36-24 overall
Carolina
Detriot
Packers
Chargers
Giants
Eagles
Titans
Colts
Denver
Arizona.. a desent team AT HOME thats lost two in a row doesnt wnt to make it three in a row.
49ers.. we will see in the first quarter what the bye week did for the patriots. coming into the bye they scored 17 pts against KC. 19 pts against the jets. and 13 points against Miami. 49ers are a far better team (on paper)... we'll see if the 49er's prep for this game will be the right one..
go niners!
Dallas
Pitsburgh
Vikings
10 - Adam
After a rough week last week I am at 40-20 going into week 5. One espn expert has pulled ahead of me, and accuscore still remains on game ahead.
Okay, better late than never. I'll make this quick.
Carolina
Chicago
GB
Chargers
Seahawks (gotta go with my team, go Branch and Engram!)
Eagles
Titans
Colts
Denver
Buffalo
49ers
Dallas
Jacksonville
11 - Adam
Oh yeah, Saints as well.
12 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
Carolina 34, KC 0(!) - RJ 1-0
Bears 34, Lions 7 - RJ 1-1
Atlanta 27, GB 24 - RJ 2-1
Miami 17, SD 10 - RJ 2-2
Giants 44(!), Seattle 6 - RJ 3-2
Washington 23, Eagles 17 - RJ 4-2
13 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
Tennessee 13, Baltimore 10 - RJ 4-3
Indy 31, Houston 27 - RJ 5-3 [Sage Rosenfels blew it in the 4th quarter! It's a sign of the Apocalypse!]
Denver 16, TB 13 - RJ 6-3
Arizona 41(!), Bills 17 - RJ 6-4
14 - RJ Elliott
Final Scores:
NE 30, SF 21 - RJ 7-4
Dallas 31, Bengals 22 - RJ 8-4
Pittsburgh 26, Jaguars 21 - RJ 9-4
15 - RJ Elliott
ESPN's NFL "experts" through 13 games:
Wickersham 6-7
Fleming 7-6
Hoge 8-5
Jaworski 7-6
Schlereth 9-4
Allen 6-7
Mortensen 8-5
Golic 8-5
Accuscore 8-5
Pick 'em 8-5
16 - EEL
DOM,
9ERS HAVE HAD THERE CHANCES FOR 2WEEKS STRAIGHT AND JUST CAN NOT DO IT ! THE INT'S J.T.O THROWS ARE KILLERS, OUR OFFENSIVE LINE IS BAD, HE JUST HAS NO TIME TO THROW THE BALL!
17 - EEL
R.J
WAS HOPEING YOU COULD WRITE A LITTLE MORE BUT THAT'S OK . ( JUST KIDDING ) :-) (I WOULDNT MIND AT ALL).
18 - EEL
R.J
DO THINK (MIAMI) COULD BE FOR REAL NOW ? OR DO YOU THINK ITS LUCK. THEY DID PLAY GOOD BALL ON SUNDAY ! I CANT TAKE THAT FROM THEM. THERE DEF WAS SUPRISINGLY GOOD.
19 - RJ Elliott
Final Score:
Vikings 30, Saints 27 - RJ 9-5
20 - RJ Elliott
ESPN's NFL "experts" -
Wickersham 6-8
Fleming 7-7
Hoge 9-5
Jaworski 7-6
Schlereth 9-5
Allen 6-8
Mortensen 9-5
Golic 8-6
Accuscore 8-6
Pick 'em 8-6
21 - RJ Elliott
Through 5 weeks:
Mortensen 50-24
Accuscore 49-25
Fleming 47-27
Hoge 47-27
Schlereth 47-27
Golic 46-27
Pick 'em 46-28
Jaworski 42-27
RJ 45-29
Allen 45-29
Wickersham 43-31
22 - RJ Elliott
EEL,
Yes, Miami has been very surprising. I still don't think they are a playoff-caliber team, though.
23 - RJ Elliott
RJ ATS in Week Five: 4-9-1 [OUCH!]
RJ ATS through five weeks: 31-41-2 [D'OH!]
(By the way, the two missing lines from my column this week were Dallas over Cincinnati by 17(!), and Green Bay over Atlanta by 7.)
24 - EEL
R.J
If Miami keeps playing the way they are. They "might" have a shot, long way to go! Tell you what though they could make it tough for a few teams !
25 - RJ Elliott
Week Six picks are up!