The debate over the top pick in the National Football League draft will begin to heat up over the next six weeks. Pseudo-experts with big boards and the ubiquitous mock drafts are appearing with regularity. Want proof of the hype surrounding the draft? Teams and fans set up war rooms to manage the flow of information. What time does society crumble?
Brady Quinn, if you believe the hype, possesses all the intangibles while LSU’s JaMarcus Russell is a safe pick according to many. If Quinn looks like a star, it’s reasonable to expect him to have played well in big games. It didn’t happen often. In fact he looked lost when under pressure. One thing you’ll hear constantly is Quinn’s a sure thing. Just like the Titanic, correct.
Russell is a strong armed quarterback with exceptional size. Yet, even for JaMarcus there’s a downside. Some believe he takes too much time in the pocket and in the NFL everyone is big and fast. Will he adjust?
Frankly the draft’s first selection is overrated. Need proof:
1990: Indianapolis — Jeff George
1991: Dallas — Russell Maryland
1992: Indianapolis — Steve Emtman
1993: New England — Drew Bledsoe
1994: Cincinnati — Dan Wilkinson
1995: Cincinnati — Ki-Jana Carter
1996: NY Jets — Keyshawn Johnson
1997: St. Louis — Orlando Pace
1998: Indianapolis — Peyton Manning
1999: Cleveland — Tim Couch
2000: Cleveland — Courtney Brown
2001: Atlanta — Michael Vick
2002: Houston — David Carr
2003: Cincinnati — Carson Palmer
2004: San Diego — Eli Manning
2005: San Francisco — Alex Smith
2006: Houston — Mario Williams
How many are wearing Super Bowl rings as significant contributors, not reserve players? Take a guess and try not to Google the question. Tom Brady, selected after everyone went to bed, has three.
Hype: It’s what’s for dinner.
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Article comments
1 - RJ Elliott
Good article.
But how many of the last seventeen #1 picks you listed have been busts?
Point is, if you have a #1 pick in a draft, you are almost certain of getting a damn good player, if not one of the NFL's elite.
2 - Craig Lyndall
The next article should show what kind of cap numbers a number one pick costs and why it is almost impossible for a player with a salary that high to contribute appropriate value vs. salary cap percentage.
As the Steelers have proven, you are much better off being a good talent evaluator in the bottom half of the first round, so you can end up with guys like Troy Polamalu for much less money.