My Prediction:
1 — Chicago Cubs
2 — St. Louis Cardinals
3 — Milwaukee Brewers
4 — Cincinnati Reds
5 — Houston Astros
6 — Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are strong favorites in the NL Central once again. They've kept together most of the key players from 2008, while other teams in the division are either taking a step back or just struggling to stay in place.
The team is returning its top four starters in Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden. It's a strong group, although there are concerns about Harden's ability to make 20 starts, let alone 30. The team also took a big step back at closer, losing Kerry Wood to free agency and replacing him with trade acquisition Kevin Gregg. The Cubs have clearly overrated Gregg, due to his status as a proven closer. They've still got a great safety net in Carlos Marmol, but the Cubs will see a big difference between Gregg and the departed Wood.
Chicago has a unique depth to their offense. Last year the Cubs led the league in runs scored, despite the fact that no one on the team received (or deserved) strong MVP support. In other words, nobody on the team was great, but a lot of people were good. The 2008 team remains mostly intact, adding in right fielder Milton Bradley. Bradley is a fine hitter, but there's some concern about keeping him in the lineup, particularly as he won't have the option of DH-ing like he had with Texas in 2008. And of course, there's his prickly personality, which has created problems with umpires, announcers and team management throughout his career. The Bradley contract is a calculated risk, but the potential reward is significant.
The biggest worry facing Chicago this year is that they've lost a good deal of their depth. The damage was done with the trade that sent Mark DeRosa to Cleveland. Not only was DeRosa a better second base option than anyone the Cubs have now, he was a great insurance policy all over the diamond. He would have been especially valuable for the Cubs this year given Bradley's injury history. If Bradley were injured, DeRosa could shift to the outfield without the team losing a lot of offense. As it is, the Cubs will be stretched if injuries hit, either in the outfield or the infield.
Right now the team is planning a center field platoon of Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome. That's not bad, but the team is exposed if either man has to play full-time. Especially since their backup outfielder is Joey Gathright, whose acquisition has to be considered a significant mistake. Bradley and Alfonso Soriano have to carry the outfield offense, because the alternatives aren't very promising.
Article comments
1 - Matthew T. Sussman
Dusty Baker jokes are like Lay's chips. Betcha can't make just one.