The Cowboys are getting 9.5 points from the highly-motivated Redskins in DC. There will be no Romo and no T.O. in this game, but much is being made of the possible return of Terry Glenn and Brad Johnson will be Romo's replacement and he is known to harbor a grudge against the 'Skins for dropping him in 2000 after a pro bowl year in favor of Jeff George. There's also a rivalry factor at play here. As with the Colts, I just can't pass up the points here. I don't expect the Cowboys to win, but even their scrubs will want to make it close. Pick: Dallas +9.5
I hate making picks like this, but the Week of Shame leaves us no alternative. What we're doing here is not solid analysis based on stats. We're playing the game of trying to read emotions and everyone in Miami is playing for their job. And they know it. The Tuna effect begins. Pick: Miami +3
One of the most telling spreads is in the Seattle/Atlanta game. Seattle has nothing to play for and that means Seneca Wallace. But does Atlanta have anything to play for? Not really. So apparently the thinking is if both teams have nothing to play for, you take the talent differential out of the equation, thus Atlanta gives the standard 3 points as the home team. Except even if it's not in the equation, the talent differential is still there. Weird. Pick: Seattle +3
Both the Chargers and the Steelers need wins to avoid Jacksonville in round one. The Steelers play in Baltimore, giving the moribund Ravens a mere 3.5 points. The choice is clear. Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5
San Diego is in Oakland and not only motivated to win, but LaDainian Tomlinson has publicly stated he wants the rushing title. I'm looking forward to the trash talk battle between Warren Sapp and Phillip Rivers. Maybe we can get Jerry Springer in as a special guest referee. Pick: San Diego -8
Money Line Picks (spreadsheet)
I gotta put a big disclaimer on the Week of Shame money line picks. The formula does not take into account teams not playing their best. In fact, the money line formula is based on the assumption that teams will always play their best personnel with the intent of winning the game. So naturally, it sees all these great teams as underdogs and thinks it's an embarrassment of riches. Yikes. There are 11 money line bets and I'm currently sitting on about a $700 dollar cushion. I'm going to need some of these to come through. Then I am going to rethink the money line process and maybe eliminate the week 17 picks altogether.
Article comments
1 - Matthew T. Sussman
Since it's Week 17, and you're ahead, shouldn't you be resting your picks and just put in the backup?
2 - RJ Elliott
Vince Young has no guts.
3 - david mazzotta
Well, it could have been worse. Looks like I break even on the point spread and drop around half my cushion on the money line.
You're right Suss. I should have just taken the week off.
4 - david mazzotta
Yes RJ. Which QB was it that had to have his linemen carry him to the line of scrimage in a key game a few years back?(Was it McNabb?) Doubt we'll be seeing aything like that from Vince.
On the other hand, if Young can't run, he just guy in pads who throws like a girl.
Now I hate the Titans even more.