Examining DVOA, specifically weighted DVOA which put more emphasis on recent games, the second tier of the AFC (below the Pats) is now a jumble. Note that both the Jags and Chargers have surpassed the Colts in weighted DVOA (and all four are above the NFC's best, Dallas). Part of that may be that the Colts have been on cruise control for a couple of weeks, but it certainly means that the flaky Steelers and the yet-to-be-determined sixth seed are already on shaky ground.
Let me reiterate that at the moment the Jaguars (or Jag-wires, if you are Terry Bradshaw) are the second best team in football, and the fourth seeded division champ will have to play them in the first round. If Pittsburgh loses they are stuck with the Jags. If Pittsburgh wins and San Diego loses, the Chargers are stuck with the Jags. Advice to both Pittsburgh and San Diego: You really, really, really don't want to lose this week if you plan on winning a playoff game.
As for the sixth seed, my how things changed. Last week the Browns were sitting pretty for the last wild card and even had dreams of snatching the AFC North out from under the Steelers. The Titans were just kind of hanging around. Suddenly we find the Titans in the driver's seat for sixth seed and Cleveland with crossed fingers to be in the post season. Not what I expected at all.
I really came to be rooting for the Browns over the course of the season, primarily because they were startling proof of the Fool's First Law: The offensive line is the most important part of your team. The markedly excellent play of the O-line is what made Derek Anderson look good and Braylon Edwards excel and Jamal Lewis revive. Put me on record as supporting Joe Thomas for Rookie of the Year (yes, even over Adrian Peterson). Of course, the line can give the QB all the time in the world but if he chooses to throw passes directly to the opposition, you're going down — I'm talking to you, Derek Anderson.
Strangely, because of the vagaries of tie-breakers, it doesn't matter if the Browns win or lose this week. It all depends on the Titans (tie games aside). If Tennessee loses the Browns are in. If Tennessee wins the Browns are out. So the Browns can rest their starters and we should see Brady Quinn, right? That'd be fun, but no. In the astronomically unlikely event that the Titans tie the Colts, a Browns win does matter. And the Titans don't play until Sunday night so the Browns can't take that chance.
Article comments
1 - Matthew T. Sussman
Since it's Week 17, and you're ahead, shouldn't you be resting your picks and just put in the backup?
2 - RJ Elliott
Vince Young has no guts.
3 - david mazzotta
Well, it could have been worse. Looks like I break even on the point spread and drop around half my cushion on the money line.
You're right Suss. I should have just taken the week off.
4 - david mazzotta
Yes RJ. Which QB was it that had to have his linemen carry him to the line of scrimage in a key game a few years back?(Was it McNabb?) Doubt we'll be seeing aything like that from Vince.
On the other hand, if Young can't run, he just guy in pads who throws like a girl.
Now I hate the Titans even more.