Goat Coefficient
Tom Coughlin: 7i (Where i equals the square root of -1, a number that cannot be represented in the world of rational numbers. Coughlin's gaff only makes him a goat in the imaginary world where all people understand probability.)
Last minute update on the Giants: Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame wonders whether the final sequence in the Giants victory was all about the point spread. Since that is essentially an accusation of gambling, I would be careful. It worked out for me because I laid the points but, hmmm...
Last Week
4-3 versus in the spread brings us to 23-12-2, or $5030 returned from an outlay of $4070 for a $960 gain. The money line was down this week thanks to the inane officiating in Cleveland. Bear with me; I will be bitter about this for a while. A loss of $132.37 cuts our annual profit down to $886.08.
Spread Picks (spreadsheet)
The only thing remotely resembling a misidentified favorite is the Eagles giving 3 to the visiting Giants, but that's only after we give Philly the benefit of the home field advantage. There's no way I can see to call this one. I'm sure the money line formula will select the Giants. Pass.
Then next closest thing is San Diego even up with Tennessee. You know I hate attributing success to a single player, but there was a shocking change with the return of Albert Haynesworth (similar to Bob Sanders return to the Colts at the end of last year) to the Titans defense. DVOA says San Diego is a stronger team, but Tennessee's numbers are still going be weighted towards the games when "Riverdance" was out, and the Chargers have a proven ability to throw up a stinker. Besides, the money line formula will almost certainly pick San Diego so I'll have no choice when we get there. Pass.
Well, well, well. Doesn't that team I'm not writing about look beatable these days? We all forget that that pro football is a game of adjustments and match-ups (and by we I mean me). Little by little, teams are staring to figure out how to get to them. A solid running game and heavily-varied zone blitz packages can keep you in the game. Sound like the Steelers to you? Things are getting interesting. Look, they needed to mount major comebacks to beat the Eagles and the Ravens. The Steelers are significantly better than each of those teams — even better than the Ravens on D. Pittsburgh can loaf from time to time, but if you can't get it up to play Pats, when can you? Pick: Pittsburgh +11
Article comments
1 - Ashley Allinson
Finding Fault is fitting, as almost everyone was wrong this week. Anthony Smith wasn't the only one making promises last week. Right up until game time, experts agreed that the Steelers were the league's best and last shot to imperfect perfection. After watching yesterday's game, one can only wonder could all the experts be so wrong. Looking at it drive-by-drive shows that predictions and promises, made by players and the media alike, were nowhere near perfect.
1st Quarter:
Steelers strike, driving the most successful first-possession of any team in the league this year versus the Patriots... 26-yard FG... 3-0, Steelers
Pats' transition game proves itself, again, as league best, countering with an opening-drive score of their own, Moss' 18th of the season... 7-3, Pats
Steelers 2nd possession: Sack (loss of 9); On the ground, sets up 3rd and 16... Davenport, the Steelers' 3rd-down back, back this week. End of First. 7-3, Pats
2nd Quarter:
Pittsburgh's offense falls victim to a New England defensive stop. Ensuing punt, and subsequent 5-yard penalty to the Steelers, lands Pats' offense at their own 36.
7-3, Pats
Immediate Pats touchdown pass, 63 yards, Brady to Moss, their 2nd in 2 minutes.. What's the secondary doing? 10-second scoring drive. 14-3, Pats
Pittsburgh returns punt to the 22. Wille Parker gains 30 yards on the ground, 4 more in the air. 32-yard lollipop touchdown pass to Davenport. 5-play, 77-yard drive. 14-10, Pats
Pats return to their own 26... Three-and-out. 14-10, Pats.
Ensuing punt is recovered by Pats' special teams. Possession to New England with great field position on Pittsburgh's 34... Five of Pittsburgh's last 6 offensive possessions have resulted in a turnover. Pats' offense goes three-and-out. 48-yard field goal is wide to the right.
14-10, Pats.
Pittsburgh takeover possession at their own 38. Pittsburgh converts 4th-and-inches, Davenport delivering 2 yards (on the ground yet in the air) to get to midfield. Immediate false start penalty by Pittsburgh's offense, promptly followed by a Pittsburgh holding call. Rothleisberger scrambles to within 1 yard of a first down. Timeout Pittsburgh. 4th-and-inches attempt converted for the second time on drive...in the air, up the middle to the 36 yard line. Timeout Pittsburgh. 44-yard field goal attempt is converted by Jeff Reed. 14-13 Pats.
New England bobbles the kick, stranding themselves inside their own 20. Drive to the 37 by the 2-minute warning. Brady to Moss for substantial gain over midfield, followed by a 32-yard pass to Gaffney. Yardage gained is partially negated by a 10-yard penalty by the Pats' offense.
42-yard field goal attempt is converted by Gostkowski. 17-13, Pats. End of the first half.
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3rd Quarter:
Pittsburgh return to the 29 but go three-and-out. 44-yard punt.
Pats' ball on their own 11 yard line. Brady throws 21 yards to Moss, followed by a 9-yard pass to Stallworth. Jabbar Gaffney left wide open in the end zone, catching Brady's 56-yard touchdown pass. Extra point converted. 24-13, Pats.
Rossum runs ball back for a substantial Pittsburgh gain, only to be offset by a Pittsburgh penalty. Pittsburgh then goes three-and-out. Seventh consecutive Pittsburgh failure at a 3rd-down conversion. 24-13, Pats.
Pats recover with good field position. 15th-straight completion drives the Pats into field-goal range. Pats attempt fourth-and-one conversion; Pats convert, in the air, to Welker. Inside the Red Zone. Pittsburgh commit a holding penalty, half the distance to the goal, First-and-goal, Pats. Injury Timeout, Pittsburgh. Brady throws, complete, to Welker for a touchdown. The pass is Brady's 45th of the season for Brady, taking him over 4,000 passing yards. Extra point is converted. 31-13, Pats.
Short kick is recovered by the Steelers on their own 43. Parker drives the Pittsburgh offense to well within field-goal range, ending the 3rd quarter. 31-13, Pats.
4th Quarter:
Steelers attempt a Fourth-and-goal, Hines Ward stifled by the Pats' defense just short of the goal line. 31-13, Pats.
Pats obtain possession on their own one. Let's see if Pittsburgh's defense really is the best in the league. Brady completes 5 consecutive passes to Welker for 64 yards. Time out, Pats. In the red zone, Moss can't handle Brady's bullet into the end zone. Pats settle for a 28-yard field goal. 34-13, Pats.
Steelers return kickoff to their own 22. Ward receives for 13 yards on third and 10 for a first down. Parker catches for a first down, then runs for another first down on next play. Time out, Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh fails to execute, losing their possession on downs. 34-13, Pats
Pats recover on downs at their own 20 as the crowd directed chants of "MVP!" to Tom Brady and "Guarantee!" to the Steelers. Pats' go three-and-out, however. 34-13, Pats
Kick off and 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty sees the Steelers recover with good field position, but they run out of clock.
New England wins their 13th straight game, 34-13. It appears as if great offense beats great defense...Certainly when we're talking about the 2007 Patriots.
2 - RJ Elliott
Good thing you didn't go to Vegas this week... :-/
3 - david mazzotta
Ashley -- Those of us who made predictions about that game had our legs cut out from under us by Anthony Smith. If he hadn't gotten the Pats all worked up we would have turned out to be right. That's the story I'm sticking to.
RJ -- Not only was I not in Vegas, I was on the road and almost completly out of communication with anything. All I could do was steal a glimpse at a TV now and then. I had no idea how things ended up until I got home just a few minutes ago.
It's going to be a while until I come to terms with the Lions taking Dallas to the last seconds. Where did that come from?
Actually, now that I calculate it, it's another down week but not a complete disaster. It looks like 3-4 on the spread and down a little shy of $100 on the ML.
I'm in survival mode now. No big screw ups over the next three weeks and I should end up ahead for the year.