NFL Week 11 - Winning By Losing

Part of: NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool

The Chargers upset of the Colts was nearly unimaginable. Not quite Appalachian-State-over-Michigan unimaginable, but pretty close. Even considering their loss to the Pats in the previous week, the Colts were on their way to being a team of historical greatness. Football Outsiders has a database of statistical info that goes back to 1996. At the end of Week 9, they checked to see what teams had the highest DVOA through the first nine weeks. Number one was this year's Patriots. Not surprising. Number two was this year's Colts. So everything you have read about the Pats overshadowing the great Colts season is true. We are not just witnessing two teams separating themselves from the pack this year. We are witnessing a McGwire/Sosa dynamic — two pantheon-worthy performances in the same season.

Rounding out the top five are the '96 Packers (13-3, won Super Bowl), the '01 Rams (14-2, lost Super Bowl), and a tie between the '99 Rams (13-3, won Super Bowl) and the '01 Eagles (11-5, lost to the Rams in NFC Championship). Interestingly, this year's Cowboys come in at number seven.

Through nine weeks the Colts were head and shoulders above all those teams. The Pats were head, shoulders, torso and well... you see what I driving at. The Chargers, on the other hand were a disappointingly average team. They looked like a top drawer group before the season started, but despite occasional flashes of brilliance they have consistently dashed expectations all year, culminating in being Adrian Peterson's play toy the week before.

The extent to which stars had to align for the Chargers to eek out a two-point victory was astounding. The Colts had to go into the game with their offense decimated (down two starting offensive linemen, a starting tight end, and their first and third receivers). Peyton Manning, probably the most effective QB in history, had to throw 6 interceptions (rain assisted). They had to fall behind by 23 points at the in the first half. In the final minutes, they had a long interception return pulled back because of an inadvertent whistle and a first down reversed on a booth-initiated review over a dispute of a few inches. Adam Vinatieri, one of the most storied kickers in history, had to miss two field goals, including a chip-shot game-winner. After all that San Diego still only won by two and Indy was in it until the final seconds.

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Article Author: David Mazzotta

David Mazzotta is author of the comic novels Apple Pie and Business as Usual.

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  • 1 - Matthew T. Sussman

    Nov 16, 2007 at 3:34 pm

    I was this close to changing it to Super Bowl XLI.DCLXXXIII

  • 2 - RJ

    Nov 17, 2007 at 1:40 am

    You are both funny guys.

    If the Lions don't win this week, they will be 6-4. 6-4, and playing the red-hot Packers the following Thursday [known nationally as Turkey Day]. And Kevin Jones is questionable for both this Sunday and next Thursday. And their schedule doesn't get much easier after that.

    Color me nervous. :-/

  • 3 - Matthew T. Sussman

    Nov 17, 2007 at 11:59 pm

    6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC.

    Unfortunately, 6-4 in the NFL is like 5.99999-4 in the CFL.

  • 4 - RJ

    Nov 19, 2007 at 10:07 pm

    The Money Line was a bitch this week...

    :-/

    The Spread Picks were epic though.

  • 5 - david mazzotta

    Nov 19, 2007 at 10:40 pm

    Unless the Titans suddenly morph into the Patriots, it's looking like the spread picks will be 4-2-1.

    The line picks are a complete disaster. Looks like a loss of about $345.

    I'm pretty sure a loss on the money line coupled with a gain on the spread has never happened before in the three years I've been doing this.

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