Brady did his best Jake Plummer imitation but the Pats managed to recover 5 out of 5 fumbles to cancel that out. Know what? The Colts recovered all the fumbles in their game, too. At Football Outsiders they make the point that while causing fumbles is a matter of effort and skill, which team recovers is essentially random. If I believed in fate, I would say Manning vs. Brady was pre-ordained.
To cut to the chase: I picked the Pats to win the Super Bowl two weeks ago (and, in fact, five months ago) and I am not changing. But at the end of the regular season, I would have loved to get a fluky series or two that eliminated San Diego and Baltimore and had the Pats facing the Colts. Now I'm not so comfortable.
With Peyton underperforming again (after yet another unreal regular season) and the Pats coming into the playoffs hotter than all get out, it seems like just another repeat of the typical post-season Pats and Colts. But this time there are some new twists. Such as this business of the Colts D coming out of nowhere — should we judge them by the last two games of the first 16? And then there is Adam Vinatieri. Mike Vanderjagt is no longer around to potentially undermine the Colts season. In previous years, you could have counted on VanderGACK to have missed at least two of Sunday's five field goals, potentially letting the Ravens recover. A chance at a missed field goal is no longer a possible out for the Colts opponents. Considering the Pats are the ones who let Vinatieri go in the off-season, they are ripe for some serious karmic adjustment.
So it seems things may be a wash. The game is in Indy, but you've got to give the Pats the edge because of history, because Belichick is better than Dungy, because (last week excepted) the Pats have been playing lights out, and because I don't see Brady leaving a big ol' dookie on the field two weeks in a row. Vegas is giving the Colts the standard 3 point home field advantage, but while I'm still picking the Pats, I wouldn't bet the spread on this game. No way. (I would however take the +155 money line currently at MGM Mirage.)
Article comments
1 - Matthew T. Sussman
Anyone else think the Saints should put the eye black vertically on their right cheek in support of Drew Brees?
2 - RJ Elliott
Dude. I know I'm wrong about 42% of the time, but:
Bears Win Big.
It's gonna be like 34 degrees out there on Sunday. The Saints are a warm-weather dome road team. And they barely won at home last week. They're toast.
3 - david mazzotta
I wish I was wrong only 42% of the time.
Dude. I can't imagine the Bears winning big. They aren't the team they were in the first half of the season.
And beating the Eagles (who were probably the best team in the NFC) means a lot more than beating the lame-ass Seahawks (who were one of the worst).
Although, I will be secretly rooting for the Bears because I still hope to spend Super Bowl Sunday in Chicago at Ditka's.
4 - RJ Elliott
Did anyone else see Ditka on PTI the other day? The guy was barely coherent, but he sure sounded like he's seriously thinking about running against Dick Durbin for the Senate in 2008...
5 - alessandro nicolo
Either way, is the NFC going to pull a National League St. Louis Cardinals thingy in the SB?
6 - Mark Saleski
what, you mean that they'll take themselve way too seriously and then be surprised when a superior team comes in a beats the snot out of them? gee, i hope so.
7 - david mazzotta
I'm heading out to watch the late game with TInkerbell, but that Vasher interception seals it.
Four turnovers and an intentional grounding in the end zone. Pathetic.
RJ - I am not worthy. And neither are the Saints.
8 - RJ
I suspect the AFC Championship Game will be a bit closer... :-/
9 - david mazzotta
Wowie Zowie what a game!! I told you you should watch!!
I take solace in the confirmation of myself as a first rate negative indicator.
10 - Matthew T. Sussman
If it makes you feel better*, NE-NO was also my call. I just didn't want a black coach in the Super Bowl.
* - Probably doesn't.
11 - RJ Elliott
I was *cough* 2-0 *cough* this week...
So maybe I'm only wrong 41% of the time? :-/
12 - david mazzotta
Black coaches are the new Jerome Bettis homecoming. I can't wait to hear Michael Irvin's take.
I'm glad to see Dungy in. He deserves it after building up that Tampa team years ago only to have Coach Chuckie end up reaping the benefit.