In fact, a quick scan of the latest DVOA ratings suggests a pretty high correlation between teams making the playoffs and those with high DVOA. The biggest anomaly is the Seahawks. DVOA marks Seattle as the 26th ranked team in the league; the 7th worst. How did they get a home game in wild card weekend? Location, location, location.
At the moment, the DVOA based playoff slate would be San Diego, Baltimore, New England, Jacksonville, Indy, and Cincy in the AFC. Chicago, Philly, New Orleans, Dallas, New York Giants, and Carolina in the NFC. That's not a bad line-up; most importantly there's no undeservings like Seattle. More importantly, everyone would have to be sure to play hard this week or risk losing their seeding.
OK, yes, I know. I would like the NFL to have a DVOA based objective so my DVOA based picks would be better. So sue me.
But what does DVOA say about the actual current playoff situation? Well, if you take DVOA as an accurate measure of the relative superiority of the teams, you can run a simulation of the upcoming week's games to see how things play out.
The Mike Harris Playoff Odds Report has done exactly that — 50,000 times, in fact. The results indicate that the AFC wild cards are extremely likely to be the Broncos and Jets with Cincy as a dark horse possibility. Leaving the Jags, Titans and Chiefs with only a tiny fraction of outs.
In the NFC the Giants are strongly expected to stumble into the wild card spot that isn't taken by Philly or Dallas. And Philly is strongly favored to take the NFC East.
I've wandered far a field here and not surprisingly lurched into some stat geekery, but you expected that by now. The point is that the Week of Shame is ruled by emotion and circumstance not rational analysis. When winning games or even playing your best is not necessarily the goal, we need to be extra careful making picks.
But first, let's do the house cleaning.
Results
3-3 versus the spread. Another sub-mediocre performance. I have had one decent week against the spread this year. The rest of the time it has been grinding losses and sister kissings. For the year we are 27-32, giving a net loss of $820. Good riddance 2006, don't let the door hit ya.
Article comments
1 - RJ Elliott
Why didn't you pick Dallas over Detroit on the Money Line? Dallas needs to win, and Detroit wants to lose.
Hell, even I picked the Lions to lose!
2 - RJ Elliott
Er, please delete comment #1... :-/
3 - david mazzotta
Oh, RJ, so sad. Now we don't get to see how Millen screws up the first pick.
Fittingly for this season I finished with a grinding loss of 3-5 against the spread.
Also fittingly, though the money line was only 4-6, the big payoffs mean I came out up. Woot!
4 - Matthew T. Sussman
Exactly how much is the editor's cut?
5 - RJ Elliott
Yes, but looking on the bright side, we get to see how will Millen screw up the 2nd pick!