NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Week 17 - Page 3

[T]he teams the Packers had beaten were a combined 33-72. The teams the Giants had beaten were a combined 46-59, giving New York an advantage of 13 games.

Given Chicago's NFC-best record, a Packers victory would help Green Bay's strength-of-victory chances immensely.

The Packers would then be rooting for the teams they beat to win their games (Detroit to beat Dallas, Minnesota to beat St. Louis, Miami to beat Indianapolis, Arizona to beat San Diego and San Francisco to beat Denver) and the teams that New York beat to lose (Dallas to lose to Detroit, Carolina to lose to New Orleans, Tampa Bay to lose to Seattle and Houston to lose to Cleveland).

How convoluted is that? I hope all the little ten-year-old cheeseheads have brushed up on their spreadsheet skills for this weekend. The whole thing just makes you yearn for the straightforward clarity of the BCS.

Tiebreakers bring to mind a word that begins with "cluster" and rhymes with fire-truck. You can rid yourself of tiebreakers through tournament-style, neutral-field play à la the NCAA tourney, but I can't imagine the NFL going for that, especially the neutral field part of it. Think of all those publicly financed stadiums losing out on playoff revenue.

And that still doesn't resolve the Week of Shame. If you're locked in before the regular season is over, there is still no incentive to play all-out in your throwaway games. The only thing that would do that was if your seeding was determined by quality of play rather than won-loss record and tie-breakers. It would require a measure that places value on every play of every game, regardless of outcome. One that takes into account opponent strength. One that is not influenced by popularity. One like DVOA.

Per DVOA, the top seeds in the AFC are the Chargers and Ravens. That rates a big fat "duh."

In the NFC, the Bears are still on top, although there has been a measurable slackening over the past three weeks (not just the trash time versus the Lions last week). Instead of the Saints at number two, DVOA puts the Eagles there. That's a tough call, but it is arguable that the Eagles have fewer holes than the Saints, who have an exploitable pass defense. It's not airtight, but it's not unreasonable either.

Article Author: David Mazzotta

David Mazzotta is author of the comic novels Apple Pie and Business as Usual.

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