NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Week 17 - Page 2

Of course, to truly understand the various wild card possibilities you need slide rules, Gantt charts, 3-D modeling software, and even then it could come down to a coin flip. That aside, at least we know who has a reason to fight and who doesn't, right?

Yes we do, until about 4 p.m. on Sunday. Teams can go from a fighting chance to drawing dead in the late games based on what happens in the early games. For example, if Detroit happens to top Dallas in the 1 p.m. game (absurd, but bear with me), then Philly wins the NFC East and cannot improve with a win in the later 4:00 game. How fast do you think the Eagles starters come out if the Cowboys loss is final at say 4:30? 4:30:01? How is a fella supposed to gamble in such an environment?

There are worse examples. Here is Green Bay's current playoff scenario according to ESPN.com, who presumably have the capital budget to afford the mainframes needed to track all this:

Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth with:

1. A win plus a NY Giants win + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYG, or

2. A win plus a NY Giants loss or tie plus a St. Louis loss or tie, or

3. A win plus a NY Giants loss or tie plus a Carolina win, or

4. A win plus a NY Giants loss or tie plus an Atlanta win, or

5. A tie plus a NY Giants loss plus a St. Louis loss plus an Atlanta loss or tie plus a Carolina loss or tie

The Giants play the Redskins on the first game of the week on Saturday night. Green Bay plays Chicago in the last game of the week on Sunday night. Their fate could be sealed, unsealed, and resealed before kickoff.

The Giants should win. Even as dysfunctional as they have been they should beat the Redskins, right? The Pack should win also, practically speaking. The Bears have no reason to start anyone with any talent on defense, and they beat the Lions only via a late game turnover last week. So if they both win, we go to a "strength of victory" tie-breaker.

The strength of victory tie-breaker is the combined winning percentages of all the teams that each team has defeated this year. This, of course, won't be known until the week's games are over. But if it's close, how well off are the Packers for having a bonus victory against a hibernating Bears team with a top winning percentage versus a 5-10 Washington team? A brief description of the situation from Madison.com:

Article Author: David Mazzotta

David Mazzotta is author of the comic novels Apple Pie and Business as Usual.

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