NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Week 14 - Page 7

The 'Niners are giving 5 to the Pack in the San Fran. The Pack have hosed me the last two weeks straight. Why would I suppose they can cover against the 'Niners? Because it's the 'Niners. And besides the Packers D should be well rested after taking last week off. Pick: Packers +5

In another improbable spread, the Texans are giving 2 to the Titans in Houston. DVOA says that Houston is slightly better after the home adjustment which is statistically conceivable, but the fact that Vegas is going along with it is surprising. Sometime perception is clear enough that it has to override the numbers. Pick: Titans +2

The Giants are getting 3 from Carolina, who need the home adjustment to be statistically superior. Both these teams are trapped in the seething cauldron of mediocrity that is the NFC wild card race, but the once beat up Giants are getting healthier and they seemed much more poised in their loss to Dallas than Carolina did in losing to the Eagles. Gotta take the points. Pick: Giants +3

Games where the spread is too low
Seattle is giving 3 to Arizona in the desert. Remarkably, after the home adjustment, the Cards are the higher rated team. But not only am I not taking the Cards, I'm pulling a reverse and giving the points, mostly because the ratings are still incorporating the Hasselbeck-less games. I sense the 'Hawks are out to prove something whereas the Cards are just living out the last days of Dennis Green. Pick: Seahawks -3

The Pats are only giving 3.5 to the Fins in Miami. Presumably this is partly due to the pathetic game they played against the Lions last week, and partly due to Miami having actually won a few games in the second half of the season. The Pats are better than they played in Detroit. And I have been saying that the Fins have seriously problems all through their recent victories. Time to put up or shut up on that. Pick: Patriots -3.5

The Jets are giving the Bills 3.5 in the Meadowlands. Not much to say here except the Jets are on a nice roll and if they can slam the Pack in Lambeau they should be able to take the Bills at home by more than a field goal. Pick: Jets -3.5

The Chargers are giving a touchdown to the Broncos in San Diego. When their deadly plug-and-play running game slipped a bit (although it is still decent) and Bad Jake made his return, I think Shanahan saw that there would be no Super Bowl for them this year, and decided to treat the rest of the season as prep for next year. Conversly, the Chargers are convinced that this year belongs to them. And it may just. Pick: Chargers -7

Article Author: David Mazzotta

David Mazzotta is author of the comic novels Apple Pie and Business as Usual.

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