I don't believe in Luck. At least not in the sense of a force that determines uncertain outcomes. I believe in randomness, tendency, and probability. I believe in stochastic processes. I believe in reversion to the mean. I believe in playing the smart odds, and not trusting my gut to tell me what this mysterious force called Luck is going to make happen. In that sense, Luck is simply Fatalism Lite.
But I was just in Vegas and I have never been so close to cursing my stars and damning providence than I was last weekend. Succinctly put, I ended up down. Not by a debilitating amount; roughly enough to buy me and a half-dozen friends a nice dinner out in Ann Arbor which, judging from the prices I saw along the Strip, corresponds to a light lunch for two in Vegas.
It wasn't the money or the losing that bothered me. I've lost in Vegas before. You're supposed to lose. They've designed the entire city to make that happen. If you know someone that claims to always win in Vegas, they are either lying or they haven't gone enough.
The only time I really get down on myself for losing is if I lose because I did something stupid, something I should have known better than to do. That wasn't my problem this trip. I think I can safely say I did not make a single major misjudgment. And ironically, that is the reason losing bothered me so much.
You see, I didn't just lose; I got crushed. I played Blackjack and Three Card Poker at the tables and Hold 'Em in the poker room. Not only did I get my ass handed to me in all circumstances, I was never up for an instant. There was not a single moment when I was ahead. Not one. I sat down, started losing, and the only question was how long would I be able to play until my stake was gone. I think I lost something like 12 straight hands at Three Card Poker at one point. I probably played a total of five hours of blackjack and only once did I get blackjack. In fact, I doubled down on 11 four times and lost all four hands.
The thing is, I know how to play these games. I know basic strategy in Blackjack, and I know how to measure pot odds and slow play cautious players in Hold 'Em. And yet, for the first time ever, I found myself in looking at my stack of chips and figuring how many more hands I could lose before it was gone. The concept of reversion to the mean implies that eventually things will turn around and I'll end up winning at some point. Didn't happen. I kept on playing correctly, playing sharp, and I kept on losing.
Article comments
1 - Tinkerbell
STILL REJOICING!!!! STILL REJOICING!!! Am counting the minutes until the Sunday night 8 pm game!!!
I'm sorry I said you gamble worse than Britney Spears, but it's true. Maybe you could pick up a tip or two from K-fed.
2 - Matthew T. Sussman
Be glad you didn't gamble better than Britney Spears, or else Perez Hilton would have up-skirt shots of Mazzotta.
3 - Jill Bryan
I completely agree with your assessment of the Monday Night Football guest commentator.
Jimmy Kimmel couldn't have been more entertaining or less annoying.
How's the leg, Joe? hahahahahhahaaaaaa
I love it.
4 - Tinkerbell
I didn't know Mazzotta wore fishnets.
5 - david mazzotta
I was ready for my close up. The spa at Caesar's offers a Brazilian.
6 - RJ Elliott
"Pick: Ravens +3"
Dude, but a rabbit's foot. :-/
7 - RJ Elliott
Buy* a rabbit's foot, even... :-/
8 - david mazzotta
Rabbit's foot, horseshoe, salt over the shoulder, knock wood, human sacrifice to the gambling gods...
9 - T. Michael Testi
This reminds me of an old saying that can be applied... if you want to make a million by gambling make sure you start off with 10 million.
The problem with Eli is not Eli as much as it is with the QB Coach; Kevin Gilbride. This guy is incompetent. He has already been fired from at least 4 or 5 teams. He comes in to a situation that good and so he seems to have some success and then things go down hill. I would blame him more than Eli (yes, I know he throws the ball, but there is some one telling him to). I suspect Gilbride will be going (or should be) soon. Remember what happened after Fossel was let go? The Ravens began to win.
Sorry for you losses, but nice story!
10 - david mazzotta
T. Michael - I buy that completely. Eli was erratic when he entered the league but instead of improving he's regressed. I'd love to know exactly what Gilbride is actually doing to "help" him.
At this point, the entire coaching staff of the Giants is suspect. It's worth more discussion in an upcoing column.
(I just realized that this was the second Thanksgiving weekend the Giants wrecked for me. Last year it was Feely. What did I ever do to them?)
11 - david mazzotta
The 4 pm games have just started. I'm 1-4 v. the spread and 0-2 v. the line.
I have no words for this.
12 - RJ Elliott
I'm 7-8 so far, picking the games straight up. It's been a tough week... :-/
13 - RJ Elliott
How'd you end up?
14 - david mazzotta
3-6 versus the spread, which has become lost cause.
3-3 versus the line, but up in money because of the bias for underdogs.
I was on the verge of losing both ways until Delhomme decide to throw to the wrong color uniform at about 11:45 last night.