If I had stayed away from these two I would have been 4-1 instead of 4-3. Ifs and buts... Yet I suppose being 7-5 for the season is acceptable.
The other real disappointment was Atlanta stomping the Dolphins. I felt pretty sure of my pick of the Dolphins. Sadly, God ignored my plea from last week and did not deliver me from Gus Frerotte. I would have rather they just put the ball in Ricky Williams hands at the end of the game (first verifying that he wasn't holding a big ole spliff, naturally). I think it is of the utmost import to note that Gus Frerotte is a former Lions quarterback.
On to this week's picks. Same methodology. We'll look for substantial differences between the latest weighted DVOA, as measured by Football Outsiders, and the current point spread in from Vegas.com (as of roughly 12:15 AM Thursday). I wrote in more detail about this method in Week 8. Here is the summary spreadsheet for this week. Two words: slim pickings.
As always we start with games where the team with the superior DVOA is the underdog. We have two:
KC is 34.6 points superior in DVOA but is getting 2.5 points on the spread. This, I am guessing, is a reaction to Priest Holmes being out for the season (an event that is in no way accounted for in DVOA). I think Larry Johnson will work out fine, and the weather in Buffalo should be good over the weekend. Pick: KC +2.5
Dallas is 24.6 points superior to Philly and is getting 3 points. I suppose this could be a we're-finally-rid-of-TO-let's-celebrate-by-winning game for Philly, but the fact is they are still banged up and have all the same on field issues they've had all season. Pick: Dallas +3.
Next up we look for games where teams with a substantial DVOA advantage are only giving a few points. There is not a whole lot to work with here. Washington over Tampa Bay giving a point on the road is borderline. Neither the 'Skins or the Bucs are anything approaching trustworthy. Both can stink like a skunk in an outhouse on any given Sunday.
Article comments
1 - Eric Olsen
great story David, really kept my interest though I have barely been following the NFL so far this year, very well written.
I could easily spend three days in Vegas without gambling, though
2 - pimpin critic
TO IS A FUCKING HIPACRITIC AND IS NOT ALL HE CRACKED UP TO BE
3 - CJ3J2005
T.O. IS A NOTHING NOBODY THE ONLY THING IS TO SAY IS HE HAS A NAME T.O. IS A FUCKING HIPACRITICTICAL AND IS NOT ALL HE CRACKED UP TO BE
4 - Matthew T. Sussman
The Eagles aren't finished -- but they were smart pick at the time.
5 - david mazzotta
Correction: In the recap I have KC +2.5 over Oakland. It should be KC +2.5 over Buffalo.
6 - RJ
RESULTS:
Kansas City +2.5 over Buffalo - Wrong
Dallas +3 over Philadelphia - Unknown...
Seattle -6.5 over St. Louis - Right
New York Giants -9.5 over Minnesota - Wrong
Green Bay +9.5 over Atlanta (shudder) - Right
So. 2-2 so far...
7 - David Mazzotta
Yikes. If you had told me that both Green Bay and Minnesota would not only beat the spread, but win outright, I would've backed away from you, very slowly.
Now my fate hangs in the balance on Monday.
8 - Bennett
Great post! Again, I learn so much.
Loved the reference to last week's comments about "Vegas in my mind", that was SO the perfect answer!
"Green Bay +9.5. (Just writing the words is making my jaw tighten enough to crack a molar or two.)"
Awesome! I picked this one wrong and gave 14 points.
Nice call.
9 - David Mazzotta
Talk about squeaking one out! I think I need a vacation. (Maybe Vegas?)
10 - Matthew T. Sussman
I always squeak out my picks, and they just lie on the floor collecting flies.