If I had stayed away from these two I would have been 4-1 instead of 4-3. Ifs and buts... Yet I suppose being 7-5 for the season is acceptable.
The other real disappointment was Atlanta stomping the Dolphins. I felt pretty sure of my pick of the Dolphins. Sadly, God ignored my plea from last week and did not deliver me from Gus Frerotte. I would have rather they just put the ball in Ricky Williams hands at the end of the game (first verifying that he wasn't holding a big ole spliff, naturally). I think it is of the utmost import to note that Gus Frerotte is a former Lions quarterback.
On to this week's picks. Same methodology. We'll look for substantial differences between the latest weighted DVOA, as measured by Football Outsiders, and the current point spread in from Vegas.com (as of roughly 12:15 AM Thursday). I wrote in more detail about this method in Week 8. Here is the summary spreadsheet for this week. Two words: slim pickings.
As always we start with games where the team with the superior DVOA is the underdog. We have two:
KC is 34.6 points superior in DVOA but is getting 2.5 points on the spread. This, I am guessing, is a reaction to Priest Holmes being out for the season (an event that is in no way accounted for in DVOA). I think Larry Johnson will work out fine, and the weather in Buffalo should be good over the weekend. Pick: KC +2.5
Dallas is 24.6 points superior to Philly and is getting 3 points. I suppose this could be a we're-finally-rid-of-TO-let's-celebrate-by-winning game for Philly, but the fact is they are still banged up and have all the same on field issues they've had all season. Pick: Dallas +3.
Next up we look for games where teams with a substantial DVOA advantage are only giving a few points. There is not a whole lot to work with here. Washington over Tampa Bay giving a point on the road is borderline. Neither the 'Skins or the Bucs are anything approaching trustworthy. Both can stink like a skunk in an outhouse on any given Sunday.