Far be it for me to inundate you with the vast array of commentary supporting it over the past couple of months, but common wisdom currently holds that Alex Rodriguez, All-Star third baseman for the New York Yankees, is in line to recieve a contract this offseason that is anywhere from eight to ten years in length and has an overall value of anywhere between 225 and 300 million dollars.
Excuse me for being stunned by the fact that absolutely nobody seems to be even batting an eyelash at the status quo in this situation. I appreciate that Alex is a phenomenal hitter and anywhere from moderately above average to well above average defensively (depending on who you ask), but that doesn't make the current thinking logical.
Sure, you could argue that the market is flush with money right now, and that Alex has earned his cut of the pie. However, the simple statement that the contract speculation is based on is absolute manure - that statement being that "if Rodriguez made X amount of dollars in his last contract, and he is still performing at All-Star levels, then he should make more than X dollars in his next contract."
It is widely believed that the contract originally provided Alex was bordering on insane. The contract as a whole is worth roughly $252 million over the course of ten years, though like most contracts, it is full of escalators, so that Rodriguez made somewhere in the neighborhood of $23 million in the first few years and is making about $27 million this year (and through the remainder of the contract, though Rodriguez can opt out at any time in that period).
Texas Rangers owner Tom Hicks says he regrets not getting production from an aging Juan Gonzalez more, but his myriad errors as owner leave lots open to questioning. Sure, Rodriguez had played five very impressive full seasons to that point (.320 avg, .970 ops, 37 HR and 117 RBI per season) and showed no signs of slowing down, but investing such a large sum of money in one player is certainly foolish.
For one thing, when you have so much money tied up in one player, it severely limits what you can do to fill in a roster around him or replace him if he happens to get injured. On top of that, even if you view his added value in terms of what a player is truly worth [as far as how much an All-Star caliber player can increase your gate revenue - in general terms as an attraction, and in broader terms of increased winning (and, thusly, post-season revenue)], Rodriguez still isn't worth what he's getting now (his current salary is a full $10 million per year higher than the next highest-paid non-Yankee, Manny Ramirez).
Article comments
1 - rangersorrobbers
Thanks for the link to my site, but you lost me with the sudden reference to Juan Gonzalez in the middle of discussing ARod.
While creative, I don’t see any way that ARod would take that contract. It would need a more solid floor.
Also, I don’t know who would pay him that much. While the Yankees are getting about $7 million from my team - the Rangers - thanks to Tom Hicks’ horrible ownership, they’re also paying a hefty “luxury tax” to MLB’s revenue sharing scheme. I think they’re currently paying about a 40% tax? So that would mean that Alex is costing the Rangers $7 million and the Yankees $30.8 million (27 + 10.8(tax) - 7(Rangers)).
Side note: in total, that means that $37.8 million of revenue from fans and advertisers (via TV and Radio revenues) are linked to ARod. You think the (very powerful) players union is going to sit idly by and let him and Boras go a team not paying the salary tax? I bet the union will be lobbying Alex to stay in NY or sign with a team that will be taxed at or close to the rate the Yankees are being taxed in order to keep that $10.8M (or more) in the total salary pool across the league.
So that severely limits which teams are a fit to sign Alex.
Based on 2007 salaries, the Yankees are paying $189M, followed by:
2. Boston Red Sox $143M
3. New York Mets $115M
4. Los Angeles Angels $109M
5. Chicago White Sox $108M
6. Los Angeles Dodgers $108M
7. Seattle Mariners $106M
8. Chicago Cubs $99M+
Add in big market clubs who have low salaries for thier revenue-making capabilities, and the Rangers, Astros, Phillies and maybe (it’s a stretch and may sound weird) the Nationals in a new stadium could be players.
Realistically, that’s the list of potential bidders.
Now through out the Rangers. Amongst dozens of other reasons, if ARod opts out and saves them the $7M per season, Tom Hicks and GM Little Jon Daniels will be too busy wetting their pants to consider signing Alex.
Forget Seattle - they’re about maxed on salary and ARod’s been there, done that.
I don’t see Alex going cross-town to the Mets.
In fact, I think we have to handicap against him going to the NL. It would take more, and the team would have to take a bigger risk without the DH spot there as a fallback spot should an injury or age rapidly diminish his ability to play the field.
I think that alone tosses the Astros, Cubs, and Phillies out.
So, we’re left with the Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Dodgers and dark-horse Nats.
I don’t think the White Sox will pony up enough to match the others, nor will the Nats.
That leaves a quasi-reverse of the Babe sale or off to Los Angeles.
And each team’s willingness to go all-in for ARod, may be serously affected by how they do this post season. If the Dodgers or Angels win the World Series without ARod, they may not believe they need him.
I think the Red Sox make a serious push whether they win it all or not. If they get ARod, they almost certainly elect not to exercise their club option on Manny. They let Lowell walk, stick ARod at 3B and fill Manny’s spot with… does it matter? Pick a prospect of mid-tier FA.
But Los Angeles may be appealing to ARod. A student of the game, he may be inticed by the Dodgers. They’ve got some great young talent that’ll be breaking through, and could be contenders for a long stretch. Could be a baseball/Dodgers version of Shaq bringing glory back to the Lakers.
And then, the Angels still need a bat to go with Vlad (it’s sick to imagine ARod and Vlad in the same order). With Figgins and Cabrera getting on base ahead of them - WOW. And even if they let Colon go, they have no urgent need to sign a big arm anytime soon with Lackey and Escobar at reasonable prices through ‘09 while Weaver, Saunders, Santana several prospects are ready to hold down the back of the rotation.
So, at least three teams are likely to bid up the price, and $corr Bora$ will milk that for all it’s worth and more. I’d expect ARod the get at least another $250M with maybe a big movie contract thrown in.