My Phillies went off and got themselves eliminated from the National League Wild Card. That doesn't mean I'm not going to have fun by playing God here and predicting who will become top dog for the 2003 season.
First, with only a few games in the regular season to go, there is only one playoff spot so far undecided. The NL Central division. Right now the Cubs and Astros are right there and it could go either way. I am going to guess that the Cubs take it. Hell, they deserve it.
So this is how the standings should look at the end of the season.
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (with the possibility of Houston)
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins
AL East: New York Yankees (surprise)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Oakland Atheletics
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Socks
In the five game division series, Atlanta will play either Chicago or Houston. San Fransico will play Florida. New York and Minnesota will face off, as will Oakland and Boston.
Atlanta vs Chicago/Houston: Atlanta will have home field advantage (as if they need it) regardless which team they face. I would personally love to see either team beat Atlanta, however, Atlanta will take it in four games.
San Francisco vs Florida: San Francisco has the home field advantage here. San Francisco has the better team, in my opinion, however Florida has the momentum. They've been going back in forth in the wild card for the past two months and just plowed over teams to finally take it from the Phillies. They're on an adrenaline high and don't really know what they're in for, which will probably make it easier. I still have to pick San Francisco, however. It will take all five games to decide.
New York vs Minnesota: New York is admitedly has not dominated this year like past years. But they're still winners. And it wouldn't be a post season with out them. And they have home field advantage. Minnesota has steadily grown stronger over the past number of years as Cleveland has loosened their grip on the division, and completely let go two years ago. It will take all five games to decide, and game five will be close. But New York will waltz away with it.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - TDavid
When the Mariners choked (yet again) it stole my momentum for the playoffs [sigh]
Would be nice to see your predictions come true though, except I'd rather see the cubbies and the red sox in the world series. Both of them have wanted for some time (Boston longer of course) for the big prize.
2 - The Theory
i agree. just not realistic. atlanta is just a steamroller right now. i just don't see any team beating them in a series without divine intervention.
3 - Eric Olsen
I don't know: as long as Bonds is in there, the Giants look very tough, and they have the unfinished business of last year as motivation. The experience of last year may count for a lot.
Atlanta oftens looks unbeatable going in to the playoffs, but usually finds a way to make themselves beatable.
Good post!
4 - The Theory
Without Bonds, I wouldn't have put the Giants to pass Florida.
But I agree, eric. the braves do tend to choke in the post season. But this year has been such a spectacular year for them that I think they won't even think about past mishaps.
5 - TDavid
Bonds is a freak of nature (and I mean that in a positive way). It's too bad that he was bashing Babe Ruth awhile back, though.
6 - The Theory
Bonds is one of the best all-round players of our time. He's a team player. He doesn't just hit home runs, he also hits singles and doubles. He steals a base. He fields a damn fine outfield. Although, he can't pitch, maybe it's something he could work on?
7 - TDavid
My point, Theory, was that there was no reason for him to say bad things about the Babe. There will never be another homerun hitter like the Babe. The guy hit more homeruns than his league one year. Bonds -- or any other player -- would have to hit several hundred homeruns to eclipse that feat.
It's sort of like Cy Young's 500+ wins. That's not going to happen with current rotations as they are.
None of this diminishes Barry Bond's great talents on the field today. A-Rod and he are the two best players today, I think. However I also think it's too bad that he felt the need to bash the Babe.
Why? For what purpose?
8 - The Theory
i wasn't saying anything to refute what you said. nor was i trying to. i was just adding to your part about the freak of nature blip.
9 - TDavid
Understood, Theory, but my question remains: I wonder *why* he said those things about the Babe? What for? This wasn't/isn't necessarily a question for you directly but for anybody who might know more about that situation.
I never saw a very good explanation for that.
10 - Chris Arabia
2 cents:
1. I think the Cubs have actually been waiting longer for a WS win. It just seems longer for the BoSox because they have been a perennial contender.
2. The Red Sox choke reputation is more myth than reality.
1986 - they blew the WS, yes, but the Mets were a much better team. The Sox got by with an inferior bullpen and it finally killed them (they had blown the lead and had the crappy bullpen) BEFORE Buckner's error.
but they had an even more dramatic WIN in the ALCS just to get there, down to their last strike down 2 runs away to California, trailing 3-1 in games.
1978 - yes, they lost to the yankees, but again, the yankees had much better pitching and were a smidge stronger. yes, they blew a big lead, but they also won 8 straight to close a 3.5 game gap on last day to force the playoff. the yanks caught some breaks that day--not just dent, the pinella sun ball that would have won it in the 9th (he blindly flailed and snagged the ball).
1975 lost in 7 to superior reds team, but came back in game 6 from 6-3 down in the 8th.
1967 Cards were better team, sox "impossible dream" name stemmed in part from miracle performance, got to game 7.
1999 yanks were better (so was cleveland), 1998 indians better, 1995 indians better, 88 and 90 oakland better.
as some sports dude recently mentioned, the only team that was a favorite AND choked was the 46 team.
the club had other collapses pre-playoffs, the reputation is largely hype.
11 - The Theory
Ok, UPDATE: Cubs won today, so Houston is out of the equation.
12 - Steve Rhodes
The Giant will beat Atlanta (if they even get past the Cubs). They did it last year. They can do it again.
It is improbable, but there could be another Bay Bridge series. Hopefully without an earthquake this time.
I imagine the criticism of Ruth is partly because of the abuse and death threats Hank Aaron endured as he closed in on Ruth's record.
There was a good column in the Miami Herald on Bonds.
13 - Dave
Nice post. I'm glad you have my Sox beating the Yanks, even if you have Ted's boys rolling my Sox in five (unlikely). That would be a series with an outrageous number of runs scored given both teams' structures, and you just can't predict which team will have three run innings and which will have eight run innings.
One minor correction: You said Boston might have home field advantage. Of course, I've got the benefit of hindsight now that the playoffs have started, but Boston could not get home field -- the Wild Card by definition does not get home field advantage even if its record is better than the oponent. Normally the wild card plays the best team in the league (Yanks have the best record this year) but the wild card is not allowed to play a divisional rival in the divisional series. That brings up the question of why they call it the divisional series, but we can leave that quandry for another day.
14 - Eric Olsen
TT, you called the final standings right on - after the first three games yesterday I'm going with the Cubs and Sox in the Series, with the Cubs winning for the first time in 70 years - Sox still under the Curse.
15 - Taloran
Not to refute the comment about Bonds and A-Rod being the two best players in the league today, but....
A-Rod is only the best shortstop by a slim margin. Jeter and Garciaparra are dang close. Jeter's defense might be a little stronger than the other two, A-Rod's the best power hitter of the three, but Garciaparra might have the best combination of power, batting average and defensive skills.
Go Sox! Break the Curse!
16 - Chris Arabia
Curse me? Curse you!
No curse, no curse. (#10)
17 - Eric Olsen
Chris, you just keep whistling pst the old graveyard.
Tal, good analysis of the shortstops, BUT Jeter, as much as I hate the Yankees, is the proven winner. That counts for more than anything. Jeter has been the best player on the best team of the last ten years - I'd take him first if I was picking a team.
Go Tribe in 2004!!
18 - Mark Saleski
the sox and the cubs in the series would be a beautiful thing, just for the cool pairing alone.
i can't really say who i think would be because, being from new england, i know almost nothing about the rest of the cubs pitching staff except for what i saw last night: wood was freakin' great.
19 - Taloran
re Eric's comment 17:
I think that if the drafts and free agent market had gone differently, and either Nomar or A-Rod had wound up playing for the Yankees, then THAT shortstop would be, as you said, "the best player on the best team."
I was taught to be a foaming-at-the-mouth Red Sox fan by my great-grandmother, grandmother and mother, so my draft choice would be different simply because I'm a homey. However, Jeter's defensive play in the WS against the D-Backs two (?) years ago was jaw-droppingly astounding.
Here are a few simple stats on the three (defensive stats since '97, offensive stats for career):
Errors
Average
Triples
Home Runs
Jeter
115
.317
41
127
Garciaparra
133
.323
47
173
Rodriguez
102
.308
22
345
A-Rod came up in '94, Jeter in '95, and Nomar in '96 (though Nomar counted as a rookie the next season). So, if one missed the first pick of the draft, it wouldn't be too terribly horrible to settle on the second or third best SS in the game - whoever that might be!
Dang! Darn program is stripping my table, so the formatting on the stats isn't as nice as I would have liked.
20 - Eric Olsen
I'd take all three and move A-Rod to third and Nomar to second. Now THAT would be an infield.
21 - Craig Lyndall
The Shortstop Wars are easy in my mind. I don't think you can compare Jeter or Garciaparra to A-Rod.
A-Rod puts up superior numbers if you consider the lineup he hits in.
He doesn't have a lineup with Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Nick Johnson, and oh yeah, this guy named Jason Giambi.
He also doesn't have a lineup with Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.
I agree that Jeter is more historically significant at this point because he has been a major part of the most dominating team, but I think if they were all viewed objectively, the list would go like this.
1. A-rod
2. Garciaparra
3. Jeter
22 - Natalie Davis
Go Sox. I want that curse BS done with. And a Sox/Cubbies series would be awesome!
Last night on Craig Kilborn, there was a mock debate between a Sox diehard and a Cubs aficionado. It devolved from a trash-talking fest over whose team would win in a Sox-Cubs World Series into a shouting match over which team sucked harder, with each fan insisting his own team was the worst out of their desperation to win something, anything. My favorite line: "You suck because you can't see how badly my team sucks!"
23 - Taloran
So, Eric says Jeter is the best because he plays for the best team, and Craig says A-Rod is the best because he plays for the worst team.
Poor Nomar.
24 - Taloran
Who put up the beer poll? Warsteiner is misspelled, and they left out Sierra Nevada Pale Ale!
25 - Natalie Davis
NO-MAAAAAAAH!
Jeter's good, but I want the Yankees to lose so badly my vision is blurring. I don't care who wins, so long as the Yankees tank.
For my brother's sake, I must do this: O-R-I-O-L-E-S! Magic, magic, we'll make it happen in 2004. (How's that for dreaming the impossible dream?)