The LA Times had the first leak, and USA Today reported Sunday that the Florida Gators jumped ahead of Michigan in the BCS poll, pitting Florida against Ohio State on January 8th for the BCS Championship Game on FOX.
On Sunday the two human polls pushed Florida from No. 4 to No. 2 on the heels of the USC loss and the Michigan sabbatical, effectively killing any drama of this result. The margin by which the Gators snuck by the Wolverines is quite compelling:
- 2670 to 2632 on the Harris,
- 1529 to 1526 on the AP, and
- 1470 to 1444 on the Coaches Poll.
So that means it's time for my thoughts:
1) Avoiding rematches should be part of the bylaws or SOP of the Bowl Championship Series. Using this year as an example, if Michigan were to play the Buckeyes again and beat them, the season series would be 1-1, yet Michigan would be crowned the victors? Don't think so.
Wolverines, you had your shot in the Horseshoe. Nice effort. Way to build off last year. There is a lovely consolation prize behind Door #1. Enjoy the Rose Bowl — See ya in the spring.
2) Let us say that there are only 50 of the 119 Division 1 teams that can truly have a shot at the #1 spot each year - the only 100% confidence way to see who is best is to play 49 games on a neutral field all at the same time with no injuries. There are less than 13 regular season games each year — an incredibly small statistical sampling of needed matchups to determine a true regular season pecking order. 13 games provides less than a 25% confidence level.