The playoff race is very close to September, and these are the 13 teams that are either guaranteed or close to (within 3 games) one of the 8 playoff invites:
- Cardinals
- White Sox
- Red Sox
- Braves
- Yankees
- A's
- Angels
- Indians
- Phillies
- Marlins
- Mets
- Astros
- Nationals
- Padres
(The Twins are 5 1/2 back of the Wild Card ... go on a run and I'll include you in this. Plus I said the Mets were out, and I still believe that, but for the purposes of this post I'll include you since you're only 2 games behind Philly)
Let's look at perhaps the most crucial element of a playoff team's chances: the bullpen. In a playoff race as tight as this, a bad bullpen could be a divisional rival's best friend. If a team can't hold a close lead, not only will a team lose a couple extra games, but momentum can get sucked out of the clubhouse faster than a Kyle Farnsworth fastball.
Starting with teams with the worst record:
San Diego Padres. It never hurts to have the active leader and 2nd-all time in saves (Trevor Hoffman) as your stopper. This year he is 33-for-35 in save ops. Behind him are 5 solid relievers, only one of which has an ERA higher than 4: Scott Linebrink, Antonio Otsuka, Chris Hammond, Rudy Seanez and Paul Quantrill. Since this team won't be able to score 10 or hold a team to 2, they will have close games in the postseason and will need to count on these 6 to hold the other team to one run for every three innings they pitch. And with a bullpen ERA of 3.48 so far — putting them 2nd in the NL in that category — this team shall not be counted out once they make the playoffs.
Washington Nationals. While the team has taken a bit of a dive since the All-Star Break (yeah, they're in last place now), they're still much in contention for the Wild Card, and you can't blame closer Chad Cordero. Going into the All-Star game with 31 saves, he has added 10 more plus lowered his ERA from 1.13 to 0.96 (note: it's hard to lower a 1.13 ERA!) The rest of the 'pen, like Cordero, was unheard of prior to this year: Hector Carrasco, Gary Majewski, Luis Ayala and Joey Eischen. They solidified that 'pen with a veteran middleman with a couple of WS rings: Mike Stanton, whom the Yankees threw away earlier this year. Livan Hernandez ought to count as a reliever as well, since when he pitches, the pen gets the night off.
Article comments
1 - Tan The Man
The problem with Lidge is that he might be throwing too many innings. Added with last season + playoffs, he's looking at 200 innings since last spring training. He might wear down.
2 - Matthew T. Sussman
Last season Lidge was a workhorse for a closer. He threw 107 innings total last year during his first closer role. This year he's thrown 53 1/3 innings so far, which is actually not too much compared to the other WC-chasing teams. It's less than all of them except the Mets� Braden Looper (53 innings).
Now, the concern is that with 13 K/9, he'll throw a lot of pitches. And yes, his cumulative pitch count for the season has been above average. He's thrown more pitches than Todd Jones in seven fewer innings, and since he walks batters as much as anyone else, his pitch count will rise above others.
Good catch on the fatigue factor, since he is relatively new to this. But with one month left in the season, I don't expect the two-year total to reach 200 IP.
3 - Tan The Man
Well, since the Astros made it to the league championship, Lidge pretty much pitched every game that series against the cardinals. Including spring training+playoffs, Lidge has pitched many.
4 - Bob A. Booey
Lidge is a God. He's the closest thing to Gagne a few years ago and he's out-Gagned Gagne the last two years. And who knows if Gagne will ever come back as the old Gagne?
Did I mention Eric Gagne?
That is all.
5 - Bob A. Booey
It's too bad the Twins have fallen behind, because Joe Nathan's become a remarkable closer, undoubtedly one of the Top 5 in the whole game the last few seasons. He's having a great, great year and has a pretty amazing scoreless streak going lately.
That is all.
6 - Bob A. Booey
And who else thinks Mariano Rivera is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young right now?
That is all.
7 - Tan The Man
He's the MVP, not Cy Young.
8 - Bob A. Booey
No way. Arod, Vlad and Ortiz are having way too productive seasons for a pitcher to win MVP this year.
It's not 1984 when no one could hit and Willie Hernandez looked good enough -- a reliever won't be MVP these days unless he doesn't blow a save and has an ERA just over 1.00 and strikes out almost 15 hitters per nine ninnings pitched.
It'll be Mariano's turn for the Cy Young because Buerhle and Garland have come back to Earth and because Colon's come on late and isn't getting much buzz. Plus, Mariano will get the Lifetime Achievement Award kind of effect in voting.
Clemens deserves another Cy in the NL, but it'll be Chris Carpenter, it looks like. Clemens is a God, though.
That is all.