One positive the Dallas Mavericks can take into this series is knowing that with their extremely deep bench, they have a number of players they can use to defend Shaq and hopefully contain him below his average.
Whether or not they succeed remains to be seen.
Now, we must look at the net PER the teams get out of their five positions. Net PER is a measure of how much production a team is being given, by a player or an overall position.
Point Guard: Neither team's point guards have outplayed their opponents' point guards, but Miami has done a better job of being outplayed at this position. Advantage: Dallas (-0.5 to -4.6)
Shooting Guard: Mostly due to having Dwyane Wade on the roster, Miami has a decided edge at this position. Advantage: Miami (+8.8 to -1.7)
Small Forward: Maybe Miami shouldn't even play with a small forward. Just kidding. Sort of. Advantage: Dallas (+3.5 to -5.5)
Power Foward: Two words: Dirk Nowitzki. Advantage: Dallas (+14.8 to +1.2)
Center: Two more words: Shaquille O'Neal. Advantage: Miami (+12.1 to -5.2)
Overall Net PER: Miami trumps Dallas by a slim margin (+1.1).
Although Miami has a slight edge in overall net PER, Dallas does win the battle at three individual postions and it must be said that Dallas has put up its numbers against superior teams, beating two of the top four regular-season teams (San Antonio and Phoenix), making them slightly more impressive. In addition, the Heat have yet to face a team as deep and as malleable as the Dallas Mavericks.
Also, did I mention Dallas has home-court advantage?
Prediction: Dallas wins in 7 games.
Stats courtesy of 82games.com
Article comments
1 - Q Bit
The numbers don't seem very helpful as some of the margins appear to be within the statistical errors.
I think the series will be decided on mismatches, and how effectively Heat can slow down the ultra quick guards of Dallas.
2 - David Barbour
What do you mean the numbers don't seem very helpful? They show you just how evenly matched the two teams are.
And saying that a series will be decided on "mismatches" is much less helpful.
3 - Q Bit
I also explained why. If what I said is less helpful, then fine, I don't have a problem with that.
I didn't intend to undermine your analysis, I only pointed out that slim margins are not clearcut indicators.
Relax (if you can).
4 - RJ Elliott
Dallas in 4...
5 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 1-0...
6 - David Barbour
Every series has to start 1-0. Let's not get too excited here.
7 - Matthew T. Sussman
Actually every series starts 0-0.
</nitpick>
8 - David Barbour
Very good point.
9 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 2-0... ;-)
10 - David Barbour
Boy, was I way off.
11 - David Barbour
Or maybe not. And that, boys and girls, is why you don't leave a comment until after a game is over.
12 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 2-1 after a huge comeback by Miami in the 4th quarter...
Shaq is still playing relatively poorly, however...