In terms of how much more efficient these teams have been than their opponents, the numbers are the same, as each team has is plus six. Although Dallas scores five more points than does Miami per 100 possessions, they also give up five more points.
Some may say if Dallas pushes the pace, there will be no way for the Heat to keep up, but there is no statistical evidence that Dallas has been pushing the ball any faster than the Heat. During the playoffs, Dallas has averaged one more possession on offense and one less possession on defense, which is as close to equal one can get without it being identical.
Since this really does not give us a clue as to who will win the series, let's look at how each team gets its points and how they also defend.
Dallas Jump Shot Offense: 49.8 points
Miami Jump Shot Defense: 44.9 points
Dallas Close Offense: 22.0 points
Miami Close Defense: 21.5 points
Dallas Dunk Offense: 5.4 points
Miami Dunk Defense: 4.8 points
Dallas Tip Offense: 1.8 points
Miami Tip Defense: 1.2 points
While Dallas's offense matches up well against Miami's defense, the biggest difference comes in the jump shot department. Miami's perimeter defense has been susceptible the whole year, and if there is any offense that can exploit this weakness, it is one led by Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry.
In the other aspects of its offense, Dallas should be able to score at the rate they have so far with no problem.
Miami Jump Shot Offense: 39.4 points
Dallas Jump Shot Defense: 40.8 points
Miami Close Offense: 26.3 points
Dallas Close Defense: 27.4 points
Miami Dunk Offense: 11.5 points
Dallas Dunk Defense: 6.9 points
Miami Tip Offense: 0.2 points
Dallas Tip Defense: 0.8 points
Not surprisingly, the Miami Heat has a decided advantage when it comes to scoring in the paint, most notably on dunks. Their interior scoring prowess is not just a result of having Shaq down low, but also comes off Dwyane Wade's drives through the lane which usually end with an alley-oop to Shaq or a monstrous dunk of his own.
Article comments
1 - Q Bit
The numbers don't seem very helpful as some of the margins appear to be within the statistical errors.
I think the series will be decided on mismatches, and how effectively Heat can slow down the ultra quick guards of Dallas.
2 - David Barbour
What do you mean the numbers don't seem very helpful? They show you just how evenly matched the two teams are.
And saying that a series will be decided on "mismatches" is much less helpful.
3 - Q Bit
I also explained why. If what I said is less helpful, then fine, I don't have a problem with that.
I didn't intend to undermine your analysis, I only pointed out that slim margins are not clearcut indicators.
Relax (if you can).
4 - RJ Elliott
Dallas in 4...
5 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 1-0...
6 - David Barbour
Every series has to start 1-0. Let's not get too excited here.
7 - Matthew T. Sussman
Actually every series starts 0-0.
</nitpick>
8 - David Barbour
Very good point.
9 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 2-0... ;-)
10 - David Barbour
Boy, was I way off.
11 - David Barbour
Or maybe not. And that, boys and girls, is why you don't leave a comment until after a game is over.
12 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 2-1 after a huge comeback by Miami in the 4th quarter...
Shaq is still playing relatively poorly, however...