Dallas (4) vs. Miami (2)
Before the season even began, many "experts" and fans alike had decreed that the 2006 NBA Finals would be a repeat of the 2005 version, starring the team-oriented San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons. Instead, the 2006 Finals pits the Dallas Mavericks against the Miami Heat, two teams who finished second in their respective conferences' regular season standings, and dispatched the supposed "top team" during their playoff runs.
Now, not only does this series promise to be supremely exciting, but there are myriad storylines which even the most casual of NBA fans will want to follow. Some of these include: will Pat Riley go down as the most overtanned, leathery head coach to win an NBA title, will Shaq feel "vindicated" after being traded by Kobe Bryant to the Heat, how many hugs must be shrugged off and high-fives ignored before Mark Cuban learns paying his players does not make them his friends, and more importantly, how many times will Avery Johnson hit Josh Howard in the penis while frantically trying to make a substitution.
Still, the most important question is who is going to win the series? I have studied some numbers in order to provide the answer.
Each team has played seventeen playoff games, only 3.5 games short of a quarter of the NBA season. Therefore, the way they are playing in the postseason provides a better indicator than any regular season team stats. For this reason, all of the stats I use will be strictly from the postseason.
First, let's look at how efficiently each team plays, both offensively and defensively. Since teams usually play at different tempos, the best way to compare their efficiency is to pro-rate their possession to 100, thus putting them on a level playing field and eliminating the confounding variable that is tempo.
Dallas Mavericks Offense: 114 points per 100 possessions
Dallas Mavericks Defense: 108 points per 100 possessions
Miami Heat Offense: 109 points per 100 possessions
Miami Heat Defense: 103 points per 100 possessions
Article comments
1 - Q Bit
The numbers don't seem very helpful as some of the margins appear to be within the statistical errors.
I think the series will be decided on mismatches, and how effectively Heat can slow down the ultra quick guards of Dallas.
2 - David Barbour
What do you mean the numbers don't seem very helpful? They show you just how evenly matched the two teams are.
And saying that a series will be decided on "mismatches" is much less helpful.
3 - Q Bit
I also explained why. If what I said is less helpful, then fine, I don't have a problem with that.
I didn't intend to undermine your analysis, I only pointed out that slim margins are not clearcut indicators.
Relax (if you can).
4 - RJ Elliott
Dallas in 4...
5 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 1-0...
6 - David Barbour
Every series has to start 1-0. Let's not get too excited here.
7 - Matthew T. Sussman
Actually every series starts 0-0.
</nitpick>
8 - David Barbour
Very good point.
9 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 2-0... ;-)
10 - David Barbour
Boy, was I way off.
11 - David Barbour
Or maybe not. And that, boys and girls, is why you don't leave a comment until after a game is over.
12 - RJ Elliott
Mavs up 2-1 after a huge comeback by Miami in the 4th quarter...
Shaq is still playing relatively poorly, however...