Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) vs. Florida Gators (12-1)
University of Phoenix Stadium (not Pink Taco Stadium), Glendale, Arizona.
Vegas says ADVANTAGE: BUCKEYES
Ohio State is favored by 7.5, and the total points line is set at 48.5 — that extra half point could come into play very easily if this game is as close and low scoring as expected when two of the nation's best defenses meet in the arid desert.
Gotta give an edge on the expectation scale to Ohio State with their 9-3 against the spread (ATS) record this year, whereas the Gators played many games much tighter than the smart money thought, only finishing 4-8 ATS. While the Gators come through in the clutch (5-0 in games decided by less than 7 this year), there are few teams in the nation with that poor of a cover record. No like opponents.
EFFICIENCY STATS - BIG ADVANTAGE TO BUCKEYES
Looking at my favorite efficiency stats illustrate just how hard each team has to work to score, as well as how hard they make the opponent work.
- "yards per play" (yppl)
- "yards per point" (yppt)
- turnover margin
- 3rd down conversions
Let us start with defense: both teams are in the top ten in points allowed, but a look under the hood shows that this game result stands on the Gators' ability to move the ball. The Gator offense is only average with 13.8 yards per point, placing 52nd in the nation — the Buckeyes led the nation making opponents churn out 26.3 yppt over their 12 games. By comparison, 15.5 is the median, so OSU is almost 170% more stingy than average.
The other number strongly in the Ohio State favor is turnover margin. both teams forced 27 turnovers, but the Gators gave it up 24 times and the Buckeyes only 16 times.
On third down, the standout number is the Buckeyes 51 percent conversion rate on offense (4th in Division I-A). As for the Gators? Just 33.9% allowed (35th).
The rest of the comparisons are pretty tight, but it's still an overwhelming edge to the Buckeyes here. Of course this only highlights potential results. These same numbers suggested that Rice had a big edge over Troy earlier in the bowl season, but when the Owls backup QB couldn't make anything happen, Troy kicked their behinds.
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