In the history of competitive sport you’d be hard pressed to find a more negative situation with regard to someone breaking a record. As Barry Bonds staggers across the finish line of 755 career home runs, his biggest accomplishment will that he tarnished one of the most hallowed records in all of sport.
Where Hank Aaron stood tall in the face of enormous pressure and was ever the gentleman despite every opportunity to turn sour, Bonds has been a selfish, unappealing anti-hero. Face it: only the most hardcore San Francisco Giants fans are rooting for Bonds to hit 756.
The bad news is that barring any recurrence of his knee problems, the doddering old Bonds – baseball’s Norma Desmond - looks like he’ll pass Hammerin’ Hank later this season and “earn” his place in the record books as the all-time home run king.
The good news is that it’s a pretty good bet that Bonds’ reign will be over almost as soon as it starts. Like Pope John Paul I and Bud Fox, Bonds won’t spend too much time on top.
You may have heard of a guy by the name of Alex Rodriguez who plays third base for the New York Yankees. A-Rod, as he’s commonly known, started the 2007 season as a 31-year old with 464 career homers. As I write this he’s sitting at 478 and has gotten off to a record setting start, hitting 14 home runs in April.
Going into this season Rodriguez averaged 42 round-trippers per season for the past 10 years since becoming a full-time player as a 20-year old in 1996. Barry Bonds hit only 292 home runs during his first 10 seasons, and were it not for his * cough cough * power surge over the past 11 seasons, where he hit 442 homers and averaged 40 per season, he would be lucky to be sniffing the 600-career home run mark.
But we all know that story by now. So let’s move on, because this is surely what baseball will do.
Assuming Bonds can gimp past 755 this season, there will probably be a lull of a season or two before the “A-Rod Watch” begins. As baseball looks to get the taint of the scandal-plagued and unpleasant Bonds scrubbed off of the game, they will turn to Alex Rodriguez - wherever he is then.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - RJ
Great post. I'm not an A-Rod fan, but the guy is just plain talented. Hitting 800 homers is certainly within his capacity. And I'll root for him to do it, if only to remove BB from the top of the list...
2 - fhgfgh
Good article and all, but none of this proves that Arod is better than Bonds - Only someone who is fascinated by raw counting statistics would only think such conclusions. Arod played in massive hitters parks, in a very high run scoring environment - When adjusting for this, his best seasons don't come close to pre Balco Bonds best seasons. Say what you will about Bonds post 00 numbers, but the fact of the matter is he was still one of the five best players ever prior to bulking up - And whether or not he would of been " lucky " to hit 600 oir not doesn't change this fact.
3 - jsk
Anyone who truly understands the game of baseball would be offended by this post. A-Rod disappears when his team needs him the most. There was a point during his last year at Texas when they were 2 games out. It was the closest they got all year, and that was when ARod decided to disappear. What is the Yankees record at this point in the season, with ARod's streak?
The Giants fortunes have followed Bonds'; he is hitting, and the team has won seven in a row. He has had a rough time in the playoffs, but he has won everywhere he has gone. What did Pittsburgh do with and without him? He then rebounded to have one of the best playoffs ever against the Angels.
4 - sal m
save me the sanctimonious nonsense about how someone could be offended by this post. i mean come on now, how ridiculous is that?
by your comment, it's apparent that you missed this part, so i'll highlight it for you.
i wrote:
"In the aftermath, the Rangers were failures and A-Rod bore the brunt of the fans' ire, and he was traded to the Yanks prior to the 2004 season. The anti-A-Rod faction likes to point out that he hasn't performed well in the clutch and as a result can't be considered a truly great ballplayer, and to a point this may be so. However, Barry Bonds hasn't exactly been Mr. October himself. Since we are talking about the all-time home run king here, and not the all-time best ballplayer, matters of "clutch" don't really matter that much."
5 - MCH
In the category of speculation, let's consider what Babe Ruth might've done had he not started his career as a part-time player. As a pitcher for the Red Sox from 1915-1918, Ruth hit only 20 home runs. He first started playing fulltime in 1919, and over the rest of his career, the Babe blasted 694 homers in 16 seasons, for an average of 43.4 taters per year.
If Ruth had played fulltime those first four years and averaged just 30 homers per season during that period, his career total would've been 814 home runs.
One thing that's always fascinated me about the Babe, is before he became one of the greatest hitters in history, he was one of the games' best pitchers.
6 - HST
Even if Bonds does pass Aaron, and even if A-Rod does pass him, the slugger who is going to top them all is Albert Pujhols. In his first six full seasons, Albert, to the best of my knowledge, has hit more homers than anyone else in their first six seasons. When it comes to Bonds, don't forget that everybody, repeat, everybody cheats. But he's the whipping boy because of his status. Also keep in mind there has not been one positive test, it's all allegations.
7 - sal m
first off, since there are no urine tests for hgh there will NEVER be positive tests. secondly, since designer steroids are created so that they cannot be detected by urine tests those using these steroid variants will NEVER get caught. don't forget, if it wasn't for trevor graham sending the authorities samples, we'd never know about the clear and the cream.
and while i agree about pujols, he's that much further away from getting there...once he's 10 years in we'll probably be able to start the pujols watch. although if ARod keeps playing and stays healthy, he could set the bar extremely high.
and while bonds has been A whipping boy, he hasn't been THE whipping boy as mark mcguire has taken just as much grief. but since "little mac" isn't playing anymore, he isn't subjected to the daily attention enjoyed by bonds.
8 - MCH
Ruth cheated, too...
...way too much beer, cigars, hot dogs and sex...
9 - zingzing
mch, there is no such thing as "too much... sex." also, there is no such thing as too many hotdogs. mmm, hotdogs. here in seattle, they're big things, brauts almost, with grilled onions and cream cheese all over them. my god. i want one now. beyond tasting good, they also keep you quite (suddenly) regular. is there no end to the pleasures of hotdogs?
10 - Tuffy
Sal, we all thought Junior Griffey, Alex's teammate in Seattle, would be the one to best Aaron, so we have seen recently how fortunes can change. How does Junior compare to Rodriguez at the same age and how will they compare going forward?
11 - sal m
tuffy:
great point.
amazingly as a 31 year old junior had hit 460 homers in 13 seasons...so almost exactly the same as AROD.
however, the year he was 31 was the year he started to slow down, and he's only hit 103 in the 5 seasons since.
12 - tony
Barry Bonds is the greatest baseball player in history. Even in the hyper-sensitive post-balco era (with him being severely drug tested and scrutinized) Bonds has produced like a champion. The steroids stuff is just a story that Barry "Haters" like to hide behind because they don't like Bonds in the first place. Alex Rodriguez is a great player, Bonds will hit at least 825 to 850 hrs before he's done. That means that A-Road would have to average 40 home runs per year for the next 8 years to even threaten the record.
13 - sal m
tony:
interesting...
actually, without the sideshow that was balco, and the horrendous decision bonds made to hook up with greg anderson, bonds would have probably been considered one of the best ballplayers ever, and might have hit 650 home runs. there is no coherent argument that can be made to support the position that bonds would have hit any more than 650 home runs.
however, not content with this non-specific title of greatest all-around player, bonds was jealous of mcgwire and made his deal with the devil in order to hit homeruns. ironically, the iconic mcgwire has been reduced to a joke as a result of his obvious steroid use.
and so bonds' rep will be tarnished forever, and he will be underappreciated as time goes on precisely because he was irrationally obsessed with the home run.
bonds supporters like to invoke the phrase " "barry haters" to explain away fans who make the very real and valid observations that he has cheated.
saying bonds will hit 800 home runs is like saying babe ruth will come back from the dead just so he can surpass anyone who has passed him.
14 - fhgfgh
Sal - Your arguements about where Bonds would end up without steroids are still flawed. We still don't know for a fact how much steroids played in anyone's performance, and your ignoring the fact that before 2000, Bonds managed to hit 445 homeruns, despite leading the league in intentional walks from 1992-1998. He also was clean, while he was playing in a league where position players and pitchers in their physical primes were taking massive amounts of steroids, amphetamines, and god knows what else - How do you know That Bonds didn't lose homeruns because of rampant cheating that went on in the 90's? What about MVP'S? If Mcgwire and Sosa hadn't cheated in 1998, would Barry's incredible 400/400 achievement have enabled him to win another MVP? Would he have won in 1996 while jacking 40 bombs, stealing 42 bases, and walking 151 times, a national league record?
The term " Barry hater " is very accurate - You can be against his steroid use all you want, but the fact of the matter is you don't know where Barry would be at if he didn't start juicin' in 2000, and you don't know if Barry was cheated out of homeruns and awards during his clean run of the 90's thanks to cheats like Mcgwire, Caminiti, Sosa, etc.
15 - RJ
"saying bonds will hit 800 home runs is like saying babe ruth will come back from the dead just so he can surpass anyone who has passed him."
With modern advances in DNA-mapping and cloning... ;-P
16 - fhgfgh
And I love the HGH arguement, as if that can enhance anyone's performance - Being a PT sal, you should know this. It's mainly a recovery tool when used alone, nothing more, nothing less.
HGH doesn't increase your homerun power, or your velocity, steroids do.
17 - sal m
the comments regarding what HGH can do reveals a lack of understanding of the subject about both the hormone and the role that recovery plays in performance.
the assertion that i somehow have shorted bonds and that my estimates of his legit home run total is flawed ignores over 100 years of baseball history, but for this example let's look at the past 50 or so years.
here are the numbers of the 5 sluggers whose acheivements have been overshadowed by the efforts of bonds and the other steroid era sluggers.
aaron; 398 hr at 31, 755 @ 42
mays; 368 @31, 660 @42
robinson; 400 @31, 586 @40
jackson; 313 @31, 586 @41
schmidt; 314 @ 31, 548 @39
barry bonds; 334 @31; 741 @ 42
so history shows us that some of the greatest sluggers in the history of the game do NOT double their home run output over the second half of their careers. even in the non-juiced ball era these 5 slugger all averaged just about 30-33 hrs per year during the first half of their careers, while bonds playing in the juiced ball era, before he went juiced averaged 30 hrs per year.
so it is quite reasonable to say that bonds at the absolute best would have been lucky to reach his godfather willie mays on the all-time list.
18 - fhgfgh
Sal - No, your the one who's misunderstanding HGH'S benefits. It's not a performance enhancing drug, it's as simple as that. Recovery? Creatine aids in recovery, and I wouldn't place it in steroid territory.
And you still haven't refuted my point - HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT BONDS DIDN'T LOSE HOMERUNS WHEN HE WAS CLEAN?
I don't care about past sluggers, and when they hit their homeruns, I care about the subject at hand - Which is how many homeruns Bonds would have if the steroid era never existed, and you have failed to give legitimate estimates of it. Telling me About Bonds doubling his homerun output does NOT answer the question of whether or not Bonds was cheated out of homeruns due to roided up opponents during the 90's when he was clean.
19 - sal m
keep talking about hgh and keep revealing how little you know about the hormone and what it does. i'm sure WADA is concerned with hgh simply because of how it aids in recovery. to compare creatine to hgh is laughable and again reveals how little you know about the endocrine system and the role that hormones play in the development of human beings.
and how can a point be refuted when it has no point? how does someone "lose" home runs? is your point that bonds somehow lost home runs when he was clean because others were not? is your point that because bonds was late to the cheating party that he got gypped out of homeruns? if this is your point, you probably are right.
however, history shows that non-juiced sluggers do not increase their production over the second half of their careers.
i certainly do give legit estimates as to how many home runs bonds would have hit if the steroid era never occured by providing you with the numbers of the clean sluggers of the past 50 years and how their numbers decreased over the second half of their careers. based on this history how can anyone look at bonds' numbers and make the case that he would have hit that much more than 600 home runs?
20 - MCH
"mch, there is no such thing as "too much... sex."
- zingzing
You're right, I guess I should've clarified. Too much adultery, from a role model standpoint, I guess.
The acts of sex alone most likely did not diminish his accompolishments. Shit, Babe Ruth hit three home runs in his very last game, at an OLD 42 years of age and 75 pounds overweight.
Look at Pete Rose, he probably shagged more different babes than his career hit total. Or Wilt Chamberlain, although most beleive he exagerrated the alledged 20,000 by at least double.
21 - fhggh
Sal - I know plenty about HGH. You don't. I don't care about what WADA is concerned with, as long as it poses a health risk, there is a concern. The fact that YOU are making a comparison of HGH and steroids is laughable. It's funny that your a PT, yet don’t recognize the night and day difference between HGH and anabolic-androgenic steroids. Studies have shown that HGH supplementation will increase muscle mass; but there is little, if any, evidence of strength gains in these studies. This is a fact, not an opinion. When there has been HGH supplementation studied in normal males, there are reports of small gains in muscle mass, but there seems to be no evidence from a randomized, double-blind study that you gain strength from HGH alone. None, nada, zip. If there is any effect of HGH, it is likely to be a small effect, especially compared to how anabolic steroids improve strength and baseball performance. So, there really shouldn't be anything funny about me comparing creatine to HGH, because it's a legitimate comparison. Infact, given that creatine does enable you to increase your strength, this comparison is pretty much moot.
And My point is clear - You are given estimates about where Bonds would " end up " if he didn't start cheating in 2000. You keep comparing him to other historical sluggers, which doesn't prove my point at all. First and foremost, Bonds is a modern player, so of course longevity is a factor here. Second, Bonds isn't like everyone. Other steroid cheats such as Mcgwire and Canseco didn't improve their performance in their 30's, so are they " normal sluggers " while Barry isn't?
" if this is your point, you probably are right. "
I am right, which is why your estimates are flawed. Bonds could very well be close to 700 homeruns if he was able to play against clean players during the early part of his career if his opponents weren't cheating in their physical primes - Which is the most steroids benefit you.
So, yes, your estimates are flawed because you are making all kinds of assumptions in every atbat Bonds has had, and assuming every Atbat was steroid aided, and you are assuming that his opponents he was facing were clean. You are making too many assumptions, it's as simple as that. It could very well be argued that bonds was still less advantaged than others during his steroid years due to the fact that he was an already aging athlete facing young, in their prime, roided up opponents.
22 - sal m
keep going as you continue to make my point for me. your understanding of performance enhancing drugs and the studies that have been done to study their effects is as incomplete as your knowledge of baseball.
the fact that you discount WADA is yet another illustration of your ignorance with regard to the subject of PEDs. the "evidence" that you site in support of your positon that hgh isn't performance enhancing is nothing of the sort, as there haven't been double-blind studies to examine the affects of hgh - or any steroids for that matter - on performance in athletes as these drugs are used in the real world. the clincal application of these drugs have no bearing to the manner in which these drugs are used and/or abused by pro athletes. you can make many arugments with regard to hgh and steroids, but to say that hgh is not a performance enhancer is foolish.
your lack of knowledge about baseball is revealed in your statement about mark mcgwire and canseco. he hit 226 home runs from the ages of 23-29 (7 seasons) and hit 354 from the ages of 30-37. his worst season in this stretch was when he hit 9 as a 30-year old.
canseco is on record as saying he used steroids in his early 20s so his numbers can be viewed differently, as he broke down as he approached his mid 30s. however, his career high for hrs was when he hit 46 as a 33-year old.
you can make all of the wild claims that you like with regard to bonds being able to hit 700 if he was playing against clean players when he was clean. the fact - and the problem for bonds - is that HE was the guy who got caught up in the balco mess. he'll hit around 760, but ultimately nobody will care because he'll be passed by at least two more guys, the first in about 7 seasons.
bonds fans will just have to deal with the fact the he is tainted and no matter how many home runs he hits he will always be tainted.
23 - fhggh
Sal, what point have I made for you? Please tell me. You keep harping on HGH being this mythic performance enhancer, and yet you fail to provide legitimate evidence as to why it is, other than WADA banning it, which has everything to do with percieved health risks.
What makes you think the way Athletes abuse it will make a difference? Abuse of steroids does remotely nothing close to enhancing performance. Barry Bonds had this problem when he started, and ended up on the DL. Mcgwire's career was cut short. Please Sal, your arguement has no merit, and you know it - And FTR, there has been multiple athletes such as Devid Segui and Adjabbar who've admitted HGH use, and found it laughable that people actually think it's something more than a recovery tool - But let me guess Sal, they are wrong too because the PT says so?
And please tell me how was I wrong about Mcgwire. Mcgwire saw nothing remotely close to the gigantic leap in performance that Bonds did. Mcgwire was always a steady slugger throughout his career - It was injuries in the early 90's that kept him from Ruthian power numbers. The fact of the matter is, Bonds isn't like other athletes, including the roided up ones - And if you can't see this obvious fact, that's your choice.
And you can keep calling me a "Bonds Fan", despite the fact that I reside in newyork, and root for the mets, if it helps you feel better that I called you out on your slipshod analysis, and lack of knowledge regarding PED'S.
24 - sal m
the internet is great for randoms who can hide behind the cloak of anonymity, make baseless claims and create facts along the lines of "pop rocks and cola can make your stomach explode" with the attitude of "i don't know about it so it can't be true."
hgh is banned by baseball, football, the olympics, cycling as well as tennis and other sports. the problem is that team sports don't use blood tests as part of their testing protocols, which will guarantee that there won't be any positive tests in this area. people need to do a little more homework before misspeaking on this subject.
i'll stand with the scientists at WADA and men like Dr. Charles Yesalis, Dr. Gary Wadler and other experts in the field over anonymous posters who have repeatedly made factual errors and displayed a remarkable lack of knowledge on all subjects involved.
to say that mcgwire hitting 354 home runs in his 30s versus 226 in his 20s is not somehow indicative of the benefits he received from juicing is just another off-base remark. people can beleive otherwise, but it speaks to a lack of knowledge on the subject.
incoherence, inconsistency and inattention to facts are characteristics of many anonymous posters but these people should feel free to keep coming back to be corrected!
25 - David B.
Not a huge Bonds fan, but I must say SAL everybody during that era used steroids, and the stuff they took wasn't banned at the time. So if if 5 years from now they find out that advil has harmful qualities, and ban it, would the millions of people who use it be cheaters. Barry Bonds has never been proven to take anything. The day they can prove he took steroids will be the day he is tried and convicted of perjury. Seeing as he has not been tried and convicted for perjury, you can't say he doesn't deserve what he HAS done. Like or not, there is just as much hearsay and anecdotal evidence to say the holy Roger Clements took steroids as well, or did he just "hit the gym" really hard to get better, bigger and stronger as he has aged as well. Pitchers have been shown to use more so than hitter, and I think that is the point fhggh is trying to make. If just about all the stars are cheating especially pitchers, it becomes an even playing field in regards to current players who juice, right. So if one does not do what others are doing, they would be at a disadvantage, in regards to the people who they compete against. But even besides all of that, you people seem to forget that this is a sport. Meant to entertain. I dont personally give a damn what you have to take to hit home runs, entertain me, and put on a good show. 50 years from now the training, nutrition and modern medicine will make what those guys do seem superior in comparison to what we have now. 100 years from now the training, nutrition and modern medicine will make those guy seem superior to what they will have in 50 years. Everything changes, evolves, and athletes get better. Pretty much every guy in the MLB today, is infinitely better conditioned, skilled, and really just plain a better athlete than Babe could ever be. Get over it and get a life. ITS A GAME!!!