Well, someone's gotta win the NFC, right? That's the rules. Playoff teams will be selected and there are no ties in the playoffs, so no matter what, come February one of these teams will be in the Super Bowl getting its ears boxed by the Patriots (see my AFC preview). Odds were snagged from Bodog.com around mid-August.
Arizona Cardinals 45/1
Ken Whisenhunt was the one everyone expected to take over the Steelers. A long time assistant to Bill Cowher and generally admired by the players, he was leapfrogged by an outsider, Mike Tomlin, and left feeling severely dissed. His consolation prize was the helm of the Cardinals, which would be like giving the loser on Jeopardy a steaming pile of turds as a parting gift.
Matt Leinart clearly has talent and will show it even more this year, which means it's a matter of time before he asks to get traded.
Atlanta Falcons 60/1
Joey Harrington gets a third chance, and he's probably exactly the person the Falcons need. Harrington is the anti-Vick in virtually every way possible. You can diss Harrington's skills, but you can't diss the man's behavior and attitude. For most football players, the high school image you have of them is abusing the nerdy kids. Harrington probably dropped in on the AV club now and then to tell them what a great job they were doing. He never talks out of school. Never has a bad word about his teammates. And he survived all those years with the Lions, so adversity is no challenge to him. Even though those who think he could succeed in the right environment now only consists of his friends and immediate family, he is just the guy to hold the Falcons together through the upcoming P.R. controversies, fan abandonment, and hopeless games — and that will be most of their games this year. In the future, if the Falcons turn things around, they'll have Harrington to thank for hanging on through these dark days.
By the way, Football Outsiders has two stats they use to evaluate individual players. One is DVOA, which we have discussed before, the other is DPAR, Defense Adjusted Points Above Replacement, which is a essentially a measure of how well a player did compared to what a could be expected from a replacement player. In 2006, Joey Harrington outperformed Michael Vick in both measures.
Article comments
1 - The Haze
Is Michael Strahan's act that transparent or is it just me? Bet money on this: real soon the NFL shortens or does away/ modify the preseason. not so as to lose money now,thank you very much, but to insure the safety of our product to bring you the fan the full enjoyment that you so richly deserve.Oh yeah,don't forget that dumbass pro bowl. now there's a game that we would miss,huh? too much money involved now though. tell me how many people can toss 500,000 dollars out the window because they don't feel like working? God, I love America!
2 - Matthew T. Sussman
"All Calvin Johnson is going to learn this year is how to tell when he can quit on his route by the sound of the fan's boos."
If he does it that way, he'll never leave from his set position on the line of scrimmage.
3 - david mazzotta
Haze, I think I see what you're getting at. It amazes me that no one in the press takes a deeper look at this. Older, "wiser" players are always finding ways to cruise during the pre-season. I am completely convinced that T.O. does this all the time. And though they don't say so, I'm sure the coaches are cool with it.
Push the philosophy to it's limit and you get Roger Clemens signing contracts for half the year so he can keep playing well into middle age.
4 - alessandro Nicolo
"Have I mentioned you shouldn't be betting on futures?"
You bet. Just penny stocks and options. Duh.
The Iggles give me the giggles. They will hunt and kill the inefficient and the weak - like the Cowgirls. Giggle.
5 - The Haze
To a certain degree David,I see their(older players)point,to an extent. The "way" the game is played today is different than how it was "back in the day"(remember when it was a game?),everything is so f**king skilled that it kills me sometimes,but yet,it is. On the other hand though,what was gained in skill and art form,disguised as entertainment,a certain degree of character and loyalty was just shucked out the proverbial window in the name of....what?,money? I don't know. It seems sometimes that sports individuals thrive on adulation like a junkie thrives for his next hit. and don't forget,"and the crowd goes wild!" The fans of sports in this country has changed more than the athletes themselves!! I swear the violent tendencies of the sports base in this country has reached new lows.Their lust for more,more,more is comical at times but yet,under the surface there is a fine line that is being trampled under foot. This behavior + time is gaining ground on the way we as a society functions. I fear the future looks bleak.Where have you gone?
6 - themurph544
Hey David, it's week 7, where are you?? I enjoy your column ever week and always hate waiting until week 6 to read it... are you throwing in the towel this year?
7 - david mazzotta
Not throwing in the towel. First set of picks should come roughly Wednesday-ish. In few weeks you'll be sick of me. ;-)
8 - Diesel
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