It's not like QB is not an issue for them. Let's see, they've been through Fiedler, Frerotte, Feely, Rosenfels, Griese, Harrington, and Culpepper, leaving them with Trent Green (age 37), Cleo Lemon (unproven) and John Beck (rookie). No wonder Dan Marino bailed as their GM after only a couple of days. There is no way this ends well. Belichick must giggle like a schoolgirl every time he thinks about being in the same division as the Dolphins.
New England Patriots 8/5
I picked the Bradys to go all the way last year and they missed it by one failed last minute drive. (They would have handled the Bears at least as easily as the Peytons.) By all accounts, they are better this year. They have a potential locker room cancer named Randy Moss, but in a complete 180 from last year they have enough receiving depth that they could just bench him if he misbehaves and go on their merry way. Besides, I think Moss is finally maturing just as a result of the natural aging process and realizing he could have been stuck trying to catch passes from guys like Aaron Brooks for a the rest of his career.
The odds are less than 2 to 1, but they are about right. The Pats are not just at the top of the list this year; they are the 800 lb. gorillas. With apologies to Dennis Green, I say we crown their asses.
New York Jets 38/1
The Jets could be found in the dictionary next to the definition of 'reversion to the mean' if there was such an entry in any dictionary, which there isn't because it's a phrase, not a word, so the most likely place you'd find it is in the glossary of a statistics textbook, where they don't have pictures, but if they had pictures next to the glossary entries in statistics textbooks, the Jets would be there.
DVOA, that cold-hearted, analytical statistic developed by the folks at Football Outsiders, ranks the 2006 Jets defense as 26th in the league. That is based on observation and evaluation of every individual play of every game in the 2006 season. In terms of points allowed, however, the Jets were 6th. What are the chances that a defense that, on an average play, performs 26th best in the league will end up only giving up the 6th most points again in 2007? Pretty small. I gotta look for a little backslide from the Jets this year.