Earth has been hit and is constantly at risk of attack by interlopers from space. These are called “near earth objects” (NEOs). Major players are asteroids. Most burn harmlessly during their trip through the atmosphere. However, just as in the intensely mediocre films, Armageddon and Deep Impact, there is more than a zero chance that a large one will threaten earth in the near future.
Quietly in the background of our already nervous world, scientists have been making plans for how to prevent a catastrophe whether or not Bruce Willis is available. NASA recently presented its report to Congress. More recently Rusty (Russell) Schweickart, lashed out at NASA for a recent study on the threat from NEOs (Near Earth Objects) impacting our planet. Schweickart was the lunar module pilot for Apollo 9. He is now Chairman of the B612 Foundation and a member of the Association of Space Explorers (ASE) where he is on the Committee on Near Earth Objects.
B612 is a group of astronomers, astronauts and scientific specialists who have dedicated time to working on methods to deflect the orbit of asteroids in order to prevent another catastrophic “event” like the 1908 Tunguska explosion which has been shown to have been caused by a 45-50 meter diameter asteroid exploding in Siberia. It destroyed 2000 square kilometers of Siberian forest “... and maybe a few reindeer.” Schweickart noted that, "Had it hit a couple of hours later it might have wiped out London or Moscow...”
Both groups call for early warning detection systems, “deflection capability”, and an ability to coordinate the responses internationally. The possibilities of such an impact are becoming less as time goes on. Partly because we are now cataloging the objects that present possibly dangerous trajectories.
By 2019, he said, there will be more than 10,000 objects “...with a non-zero probability of impacting Earth." “A non-zero probability.” What great euphemisms scientists can invent!
At this time, we were warned, there is no one and no agency of the U.S. government or of any other on the planet that is responsible for dealing with the potential threat nor for developing “Mission Rules” for the deflection of NEOs.
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Article comments
1 - High Heels
I really enjoyed this article! Very informative and lively.... thanks. *Ducks for cover in a tin hat*
:)
HH
2 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Very well written, sir..
I knew a lot of this stuff - planning for such world altering events is my little "specialty" in public administration. You know, an earthquake hits Jerusalem, collapses the Temple Mount, etc... How does Haim Yisraeli get to the makolet to buy eggs, who collects the garbage...
Anyway, back to Tunguska. Such an event can be prevented, if it can be prevented at all, from a great distance from earth - like out near Mars or something. It has to be detected real early, and blown up into little bits in such a way that the pieces do not this way come. The trouble with such ideas is the law of unintended consequences. But either you take the risk or you don't.
The other possible solution would be to try to install little rockets in the meteorite that would direct it away from here.
3 - Little fart
My Daisy BB gun can destroy any assterhemroid before it hit's the earth unless it's headed for San Fran. They could just throw condoms and dildo's at it.
4 - Dr Dreadful
Contrary to the celluloid ravings of Hollywood, blowing up an asteroid with Earth's name on it would only make things worse. Instead of one large lump of rock on a collision course you would have many smaller lumps, still on a collision course and still with the same total mass, and now new and improved with lots of lovely radioactive fallout.
And distance wouldn't necessarily improve the odds any. Remember Comet Shoemaker-Levy that lost an argument with Jupiter a few years back? The comet broke up into several pieces some time before the collision, but still impacted with enough force to have obliterated Earth if we had been unfortunate enough to get in the way.
A much more boring, but better way to avert a collision would be, as Ruvy points out, to strap a few rocket boosters to the surface of the object and gently persuade it to wander off in another direction. They wouldn't need to be huge honkin' boosters, either - a couple of ion rocket engines would probably do the trick.
All of this, of course, is contingent on our identifying the nasty before it actually slams into us. Not easy.
5 - Dr Dreadful
#3: sr, just how many frickin' aliases do you need? You realize that the more alter egos you have, the greater the chance that one of them will be hit by a meteorite.
6 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Hey, DD, you don't happen to have a couple of them ion engines in the back yard that I could borry and strap to me back. I was plannin' to fly into J-lem to do Sabbath shopping and save on bus fare. Twenty two shekels back and forth each day adds up, you know...
Anything big enough to move an assteroid around should propel me also...
7 - Dr Dreadful
A bit like James Bond in - which movie was it? You Only Live Twice, I think.
Unfortunately, ion rocket technology provides (a) very low thrust/weight ratio and (b) slow acceleration, so for journeys not measured in astronomical units (such as Jerusalem and back from, well, pretty much anywhere on the planet) you'd probably still be better off taking the bus.
However, I do have a prototype warp drive in my shed. I'll let you know once I've perfected it.
8 - Little fart
Dear Doctor Dragfuller. Would like to work with you on your prototype warp drive. I have a Flux Capasiter fueled with Dilitium crystal's. I keep them stored in toilet paper roll's. My fomula which I cant disclose will be sent to you by snail mail. MC=23/6.=458/Neptune may give you a small clue. Make sure you dont mix 458 with peanut butter or mustard.
9 - Andrei Ol'khovatov
"A scientific group in 1993 studied the records and were later corroborated when Russian scientists found rocks of the same composition as "common stone meteorites" blasted into trees at the site.
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Some strange statement. Till now overwhelming majority of the Russian [Tunguska] researchers think that no any substance of the hypothetical "Tunguska spacebody" is discovered.
10 - Dr Dreadful
It's thought that the object which hit Earth above Tunguska exploded in the upper atmosphere, resulting in widespread blast damage but no crater.
11 - Christopher Rose
Ruvy, your scenario of destroying Earth-threatening objects in space is absolutely wonderful - except for the minor detail that we do not currently have the technology to do it.
The main problem with all such potential disasters is that the majority of such objects are not tracked properly and we would probably only become aware of the danger a few seconds before the offending item struck us.
12 - MAOZ
Ruvy, I reckon after something like this, Haim Yisraeli can forget about going to the makolet to buy eggs. The chickens have no doubt all been scared sh*&*less, and the only thing they're laying is bets -- on who's next in the henhouse to come down with the flu.
And on that cheery note, I wish you a hearty Shabbat Shalom!
13 - Alec
Think billiards. It might be interesting to try to redirect such an object into Jupiter or Saturn (large masses which might be able to absorb the object's impact, even though this might be a dicey proposition). Blowing it to bits within the solar system might have all kinds of negative consequences, such as millions of tiny particles which might damage satellites or (if done near Mars) render future space exploration more dangerous. Simply re-directing it away from Earth without an ability to track it or to project its future path or which in the intermediate future sends it directly into a more dangerous body might simply be substituting one disaster for another.
The fun thing here is that as we become more aware of and play more above our planet's surface, the more we have to begin thinking with an awareness of space and of Earth as part of a larger cosmic neighborhood, not just with a terrestrial logic.
Or, to break it down, more simply, as Spock said of Khan's limitations as a starship captain in Star Trek II:
He is intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates 2 dimensional thinking.