As a boy my day was incomplete if I didn’t spend at least a few hours in the dark recesses of the public library, hunting through stacks of Science Fiction - novels and shorts — for something I had yet to read. Heinlein, Asimov, Bradbury — so many more, the list goes on. Now that they tell us our favorite planets are gas, there’s not much to look forward to. But still, there is real science!
So, on that fateful summer morning in the year 2002, when those distracting little words that march across the bottom of ones TV screen during newscasts strolled similarly across mine — the heralds of future doom — I could hardly fail to notice; they made mention of a collision-course asteroid, coming in the years ahead! Young and romantic, in a lab-coat kind of a way, I jotted down the date for the world’s end, and created a poster for my bedroom door: “The World Will End on Friday, the 13th of April, in 2029!” I kept an eye on the TV screen, but oddly, the asteroid report vanished; there was not another word. Only the poster remained.
The coming devastation remained unreported until a televised 20/20 Special Presentation called "Final Days" aired in 2006, four years after the aforementioned blip. The program many will recall dealt with several ways in which the world might suddenly end. Gamma Ray Bursts, giant evil robots, and yes, the asteroid which had now been deemed “Apophis”, which translates from the Greek as "the Uncreator”, a “serpent that dwells in eternal darkness". Apophis — formerly known as 2002NY40 — the broadcasters said, was a "near miss" on August 17th and 18th of 2006. They went on to say the space wanderer is again due in 2029 (Friday, April 13), and will pass much closer than the August 2006 pass, “within the orbits of our communication satellites”. That same asteroid will again pass, even closer, on April 13, 2036. Now excuse me, but "within the orbits of our communication satellites" does indeed give me pause!
Article comments
1 - Dr Dreadful
These small uncertainties can cause up to 23 Earth radii of prediction error for Apophis by 2036.
In other words, while there is a chance that Apophis may impact the Earth, or at least pass at its predicted distance of a few thousand miles, it is just as likely that it will pass up to 23 Earth radii further away.
Can't say I'm losing much sleep over it at this stage.
2 - Jet Gardner
John I'd like your permission to use this as a base to update my own article with your permission. Unfortunately I can't do it to the BC article however...
I published it a few years ago on my own science page and I'm glad to see that the subject is still paid attention to.
I'd like to tack it on as an update giving you full credit if I could.
kudos
Jet
3 - John Lake
Sorry Jet-
I have included some links which should fill your needs.
John Lake
4 - John Lake
I make no pretences of being a scientific scholar. If someone out there can supply some useful information, I'm all for it.
BUT: an Earth Radii is 3963 miles. 23 Earth Radii is 84,870 miles. So the range of potential trajectories is nearly 85,000 miles. Wikipedia says a Low Earth Orbit Satellite is about 250 miles above the planet.
In any case, the NASA link clearly says there is an absolute need for intervention; they have a plan to cover Apophis with absorptive/reflective material, which will provide about 99.9 % assurance of no impact.
That's how I read it.
5 - Ruvy
I enjoyed this article much more than that previous piece you wrote for the Politics section a while back. I couldn't help but notice that one of the dates for the fly-by/collision was Friday, 13 April.... I always knew that triskedekaphobia would come in handy one day.
While it is good to know that NASA is thinking about how to attempt to counter Apophis, there is always that issue of money. If there isn't enough money to keep NASA afloat, whatever is done to attempt to counter Apophis may well have to be a volunteer effort. On the other hand, the stakes, survival, probably will generate more than just a few geeks wewaring Coke-bottle lens with good ideas willing to put in the time to do the work, whatever that may entail....
Nice job!
6 - John Lake
Sunday Morning! Here is a recent quote from CNN:
"If Apophis passes the earth (2029) at a distance of exactly 18,893 miles (or less, obviously) it will open a "gravitational keyhole" causing it to enter a new orbit that would put it on a direct collision course with earth seven years later. Current predictions are that Apophis will pass between 18,880 and 20,880 miles from earth.
"...Hitting the earth at 28,000 mph an asteroid the size and mass of Apophis would pack the energy of 58,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs"
7 - Ruvy
interesting an thought provoking article. Keep bringing em and maybe someone will wake up!
NU? Get out those shovels and start paying your young relatives to dig you all a nice rooomy family shelter DEEP below Chicago. You have 26 years to pull it off for about 100 or so of your relatives. Do it right, and you'll have a nice shelter 1,500 feet underground with lots of water, canned food, a few generators, some computer games and plenty of films, games and books of various varieties to keep everybody entertained....
8 - John Lake
an underground shelter.. ?
How very profound..
And if they wanted to, they could set up sirens, to warn the people. Try them out every week of so..
Seriously, some commentors at places I chose to link to this exclusive article here at BC (run on sentence !) have said "So what? 26 years from now we'll be old enough to enjoy a little excitment."
I reply, "Do you know that the Evening News now insists that people born today will have a 50/50 chance of living to see 100?"
I'm sure there's a viable point there somewhere; I'm still looking for it.
John Lake
9 - Fran
Very interesting article. I wondered what happened to all the news and updates on this.