The Big One

Californians — particularly those living in the southern half of that state — are living on borrowed time. Scientists have predicted with near certainty that the San Andreas Fault will produce an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6.7 and likely higher than that.

Earthquakes, of course, are nothing new to Californians. Their state is riddled with fault lines, and minor earthquakes occur all the time. During the week of November 5 – November 12, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) recorded over four hundred minor earthquakes in California. Granted, only three of these registered above a 3.0 on the Richter scale, but the vast quantity of seismic activity cannot be ignored.

Earthquakes are a way of life in California, so much so that the population has learned to live with them. Buildings are designed to withstand a minimum level of earthquakes. Furniture is bolted to the walls of houses. Schools have earthquake drills. Fortunately, most earthquakes are so insignificant that people don’t even feel them. Every so often, though, a quake of serious magnitude hits, resulting in property damage, injury, and sometimes even loss of life.

In the past, four major earthquakes have been recorded in California due to the San Andreas Fault, which is the largest fault line in California. The first was the Fort Tejon earthquake in 1857, with an estimated magnitude of about 8.0. Only two deaths were reported. The second was the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which registered a magnitude of 7.8. An estimated 3000 people were killed from the quake and subsequent fires. Next was the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, a 7.1 on the Richter. Sixty-three people died. Most recently, the 2004 Parkfield earthquake hit with a magnitude of 6.0, though no deaths or major injuries were reported.

Another one of these big ones is now looming on California’s horizon. For many years, scientists have tried to project what chance there was of an earthquake with a magnitude 6.7 or greater occurring in California in the next 30 years. In 1988, United States Geological Survey (USGS) believed that there was a 50 percent chance of such an earthquake. In 2003, that number increased to a 62 percent chance of a 6.7 or greater. A recent 2008 study by the USGS now places the 30-year chance of a large-magnitude earthquake at over 99 percent. An earthquake of this scale is described as “capable of causing extensive damage and loss of life.” The chances of an even more devastating 7.5 magnitude earthquake are thought to be 46 percent.

Article Author: Brian Murff

Brian Murff is a college student studying professional writing at the University of Oklahoma. He spends an absurd amount of his time reading, listening to music, and playing video games. He also likes playing the occasional game of bocce.

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