1) Apple will start to lose desktop/laptop market share.
While Apple has never really had a large share of the market, they have been making slow but steady gains the last few years. The biggest increase for Apple is in the college demographic. However, with the stumbling economy, the masses will buy fewer and fewer computers from Apple as they start to do a simple cost/benefit analysis. This will lead to a full reworking of Apple's marketing strategy and long-term plans, thus leading to the new market for Apple.
2) Apple releases a tablet/netbook/large iPod-Touch.
This new market, and new strategy, for Apple will be the release of a netbook/tablet that is essentially a large-screen iPod Touch. While this will get huge sales initially (helping to bump up the netbook market), it will quickly steady out and remain at the roughly 20% market share that Apple currently enjoys. The iNetBook will feature a touch screen, with a stylus as well, and OSX Snow Leopard. Unlike most netbooks, Apple's will be priced in the $500-$600 range, but that should not keep Apple from getting their normal support (I will be buying it the day it comes out).
3) The Netbook market takes off, but Windows XP remains the primary OS.
With the economy going towards the gutter and consumers spending far less than in years past, low-tech gear will gain in leaps and bounds. Most people want computers to e-mail, browse the Internet, and maybe look at pictures, and netbooks fill this niche perfectly. In 2009, netbooks will take about 20%-30% of the laptop market share and will remain in the sub 400$ range. Regardless of any Linux options or any future Apple OS, Windows XP will remain the king of netbook systems.
4) Microsoft will start a phone company, the iPhone will keep growing, Android will stumble.
The Apple iPhone, with its sexy look and easy-to-use touch screen will continue to grow in market share, while its app store makes millions for Apple. The iPhone, which will be available in larger sizes and memory configurations, will soon become the market leader of smart phones. Android, which launched with some fanfare, will soon plummet and disappear as most companies realize that it is better to have a company who can advertise their OS as opposed to you having to do it. Microsoft, in an attempt to keep Windows Mobile alive, will either create a Zune phone or make a play to purchase RIM (BlackBerry) which will give them a strong standing.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Mark
1. Agreed. Apple has been a pricey alternative, despite other gains you may experience. I wouldn't be surprised if some people are turning to cheaper alternatives.
7. This seems really unlikely. I can't think of any occasions where a technology or media format has been abandoned and then years later the same company said "Oh hey, maybe we should bring this back." By then it will be even more outdated, have a negative and skeptical perception and track record, and be expected to fail again.
8. It's natural for tech to sell fewer units in a bad economy. The Wii remaining in the lead and the X360 lowering price to compete are no-brainers. Sony pulling out of the race seems extremely unlikely, though, especially mid-lifespan of a console. Sega at least waited till the Dreamcast was well and dead at the hands of the PS2 before bowing out of the next-gen hardware race.
Sony also took a loss on PS2 hardware sales throughout most of the life of the system, but makes up the difference in software licensing (i.e., allowing other publishers to make games for their system). Microsoft is experiencing the same type of losses with the 360, though perhaps to a lesser degree.
Sony's bottom line is also padded by all their other enterprises (CDs, DVDs, movie publishing, appliance manufacturing, etc.). Simply put, Sony -- despite a lot of ridiculous and pompous behavior and claims over the last few years -- will not be leaving the console war before the end of the PS3's lifespan (the next 4-5 years at least), and likely won't leave then either. Again, refer to my response to #7. They know that quitting halfway through would undermine consumer confidence in all their future gaming products. Furthermore, the PS3 is the cheapest and most popular Blu-ray player on the market. Many users have bought their system just for that functionality, so it would be dumb of Sony to give up on it.
9. Ironically, your scenario here is exactly what Microsoft did to the Xbox to bring out the 360. They dropped all support for the predecessor to drive sales of the new one, which was first to market in this generation. Somehow they thought that being first implied they were the best, and would garner an unshakable market share. The underpowered Wii proved that completely wrong, as the PS2 did in its war with the Dreamcast a generation earlier. Sony has a track record where first to market does not equal success. Nintendo does as well.
In the end, it doesn't boil down to your release date or hardware specs, but rather your software library, price, and functionality. Granted, the PS3 isn't winning any medals here over its competition (except their consoles don't fail as often as the 360), but they're learning something new every day.
10. These companies merging is also extremely unlikely. EA and Activision "uniting" would be like Sony and Microsoft or Ford and GM joining forces. They're juggernauts in the biz, and they're too big to swallow each other whole. In terms of developers, Neversoft (GH) and Harmonix (RB) have had their own unique goals. Prior to these games, Neversoft (who inherited GH when Harmonix left Activision; it wasn't their franchise or concept originally) was the house that Tony Hawk built, and Harmonix was into weird music/game hybrid experiments (Frequency, Amplitude). Also being owned by different publishers makes a unity nigh impossible, let alone that it's probably not in either company's best interests.
As for a standard for music instuments, that I could (and would like to) see. While the patch to use GH instruments with RB did finally see light of day, having used both, I have to say GH guitars simply don't work as well or are as responsive as RB guitars with RB. The differences in features even now are iffy at best. Might as well agree on a standard that makes the games more affordable for the people.
2 - Robert M. Barga
7) It has been abandoned for less than a year, players are still being sold, and the HD-DVDs are still being sold. Basically, it is supported, just nothign new is being released. For any releases prior to this year, HD-DVD is perfect for those thinking of budgeting
8) The only reason Sony is still there is to keep Bluray propped up. The PS3 is probably able to last another 5 years, but by then the next generation will be upon us. Sony is making money in other ways, but they are making NO MONEY whatsoever right now in gaming, even in game sales
9)The dreamcast was far better than the gamecube and the PS2, in fact, Sony rushed production of the PS2 simply to take the buzz from the Dreamcast. You can argue sales all you want, but the Xbox is still selling out during christmas, and it has been out longer than the Wii. Basically, the Wii and the Xbox are equal, when you adjust for price, whereas the PS3 is far, far out of it (even adjusted)
10) Even if they do not join, either they, or a third party, will create a usable combo.
3 - Sterfish
This is a really interesting article. Here are my thoughts on it:
I pretty much agree on 1-4, although I'm not so sure about Android stumbling. It all depends on the next set of phones.
I disagree with some of 5. I think that they may just (finally) un-beta Gmail but I think Chrome will still be around and supported (Picasa the application still is). As for the OS, I think that's a really intriguing prediction.
I cannot for the life of me see HD-DVD suddenly coming back in any sort of mainstream way. It might get play in techie circles and we'll see articles on Wired.com about the "HD-DVD Underground" or some stuff like that.
Sega will jump back into the console game before Sony pulls out of it. If anything, Sony will take a cue from Microsoft and possibly release a PS3 with less features and a more attractive pricetag.
4 - Jimmy
This article is ridiculous. iv never read so much junk. i would be surprised if even one of theses came true
5 - Tan The Man
I don't think Gmail will ever get out of beta...
6 - JustMe
You have to be kidding right?
14 companies releasing phones with Android in 2009, more than 20 new phones just around the corner by, all the major cellphone providers.
Pleeeassee.... what is the basis of your claim?
And then when you consider that more G1s have been sold in 71 days compared to iphones in 74 (a million units). Your claim has no factual basis.
Having read that much clearly enlights your other predictions.
7 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
I,too, don't really agree with #7. I can definitely see people buying up HD-DVD titles & players due to the cost reduction & possibly for nostalgic reasons(that even happened with the XBOX 360 HD-DVD drive).Honestly, I don't see that format making a comeback,it has never happened before and BETA was a much better technology than VHS, especially due to the cost of Blu Ray players dropping from the fact that more & more "Third Party" companies are making them. Yes, the movies do cost quite a bit,but,most people rent and only buy the movies they truly love. Also,Netflix now offers Blu Ray rentals and that only tacks on a buck to your monthly fee.
Personally, I see people sticking with the regular DVD technology & with High Definition "On Demand" content from their cable provider until those prices come down even further. BUT,For quite a few people,including me,the price is pretty damn good($199)
8 - Mark Saleski
i predict that i'll buy a macbook this year and rid my home of microsoft.
as for windows 7, it'll be interesting to see the reaction in the business/development world. as with most firms, my company stuck with xp. microsoft is definitely aided by their entrenched position and super-deep pockets as they spent a boatload of money developing vista. i'm sure the same goes for windows7. we'll see. after all of these years, i'm still sort of amazed that they can't see that putting out a rock-solid product is more important than stuffing in piles of new features.
9 - Robert M. Barga
@sterfish
For Chrome, I see Google realizing that it is not selling nearly as well, and as they already work well with Mozilla, I see them either becoming the main funder or the owner. Pisca is a good program, and works perfectly with blogspot
A better PS3 release doesn't seem likely. Hell, they got rid of one of the main features (playing PS2 discs) which will hurt their sales. They have no idea what to do
10 - Robert M. Barga
@Jimmy
I intentionally picked some things out of left field. It would be really pointless for me to predict that both wireless USB and USB3.0 come out, that Snow Leopard is released, etc. Basically, I took some things that might happen, might not, and justified them. Sure, I will not be a 100%, but what fun would it be if I was?
11 - Robert M. Barga
@tantheman
LOL, it will eventually leave, but not for a while (i can see that if they bundle it in the cloud of a new OS)
12 - Robert M. Barga
@just me
No, I am not kidding, but I do have sales records to help me out. Your site has to be wrong, as according to it, the iPhone has not even sold a million units (do the math). It also doesn't source any of its claims...
Anyways, here is why I think Apple will continue to dominate:
the iPhone 3G sold 14 million units in two more months then the G1 sold 1 million. Notice the huge difference
Sure, aNDROID MIGHT be on other platforms, but then it will just dilute how much each is worth, as it loses its novelty. Apple is only Apple, period.
13 - Robert M. Barga
@Brian AKA ...can not spell it...
Okay, so the companies will not start to make HD-DVD players or new discs, but the sales will increase as an alternative.
I really do not like the HD on demand from cable. For years people have been saying that the internet/cable will take out other mediums for movies, and it just isn't happening
14 - Robert M. Barga
@mark saleski
HAve you used Vista for more than 5 minutes in time to learn the differences? Really, I have yet to find a person in real life who has used Vista for more than a trial (this includes my Mac fiend friends) who either didn't like it or though XP was better.
15 - Robert M. Barga
FYI, one of mine just became partially true
a third party released a guitar that works on all the games.
16 - Dr. Scott Testa
Good article but here are my predictions.
17 - Mark Saleski
re: #14. true enough, i've only had a cursory look at vista. the first thing that struck me was how it made a very powerful computer seem to be running at half speed. (i also hated what they did with the office interface, but that's not really an o/s thing).
you have to remember that i've been developing software for decades, and remember when an o/s was incredibly rock solid. i'll use bsd unix as an example. you never had to reboot it, except when dealing with a hardware issue (adding memory for example). even though xp has gotten better in this regard, you still have to reboot the system after several days of use because things just get weird.
in some ways, i wish i could 'unrememeber' the past, so things like random shutdowns and the like wouldn't be such a problem.
18 - Robert M. Barga
@Scott, post 16
thanks, off to go check them and create an opinion.
what do you think of the ones I have here?
19 - Robert M. Barga
@Mark, number 17
I personally like the ribbons, but am also annoyed with them. Seeing as I use OO.o, I do not have much problem with that...
What computer was it? I have seen Vista running on crap computers, comps. that would have problems running XP, and even on netbooks. Vista works well, so long as you turn off the bells and whistles (easy process), no matter what the computer is
20 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
For years people have been saying that the internet/cable will take out other mediums for movies, and it just isn't happening
Well, I think, again, it has to do with cost not technology. If you wanna spend some decent cash on a nice build(computer),pay for the proper service from your ISP & purchase a decent HI-Def Monitor then streaming HD online is a breeze.Plus, more & more broadcast companies are starting to offer HD content online. You can already stream HD from Netflix to an XBOX 360.
The physical medium for movies & music will become obsolete. It may not happen in 2009 but with the advent of solid state technology in Harddrives(HDD) & the amount of space that is becoming cheaper to purchase on your regular HDD technology(spinning disk(?) I see it more cost effective & easier to back up & access your media from a HDD then burning discs.
21 - Robert M. Barga
@ Brian, comment 20
I have 15mbs internet, a kick-ass computer and tv, and yet I can tell the difference. Until the pipes are big enough to stream true HD to my TV, with no lag, problems, or anything else, disc formats will remain in strong use
22 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
@Robert,
With Verizon, I can get 50/20Mbps,so,the pipes are already big enough. The lag has got more to do with your computer. Most people think they have a kick ass computer until they have to deal with HD video.
Here's my predicition: With the advent of solid state HDDs, Memristor technology & Internet 2.0., the physical medium will be history in 5 years!
23 - Mark Saleski
and pretty soon, when we figure out how to stuff food through the internet, we'll never have to leave the house and interact with pesky humans again.
oh, life will be so wonderful!
24 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
Hey Mark...
For a software engineer/programmer, you seem pretty cynical. I like it. I'm waiting for the day that I can download clothes...
25 - Mark Saleski
cynical's not the right word brian. i've worked on all sorts of technically advanced things in the medical and manufacturing world...but i'm very low-tech as far as my usage of it personally.
so maybe the right word is 'skeptic'. heck, on some days, maybe even 'luddite'.