If The US Presidential Election Was Held Today...

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• 1 - RJ

  Jul 22, 2004 at 12:09 am

  Er...
  
  Maybe Bush would win 274-264 in that case. I dunno. I goofed up somewhere.
  
  Anyway, if Bush wins Florida, he's likely re-elected under my scenario. If he doesn't he's toast.
  
  Enjoy! :)

• 2 - Bob A. Booey

  Jul 22, 2004 at 12:37 am

  Most of the pundits seem to believe Nader will cave to pressure and drop out of the race after the Democratic convention, so I don't know which states that would tip over to the blue side.
  
  Bush has trouble on his hands in Florida since there's apparently some law now that makes it harder for immigrants to visit and send money back to Cuba. I'm too lazy to do the research and find a link but this has been in several of the major papers. The Cuban vote is generally strongly Republican but this could mean that there's less turnout or a smaller percentage for Bush among Cubans. Kerry has yet to really establish himself in South Florida -- I'm guessing he'll head there after he and Edwards spend most of the summer toughening up their midsection in the industrial states.
  
  Kerry should dispatch Bill Clinton to Arkansas and have him speak every damn day after his book tour until the election on his behalf. Of course it won't happen, but that seems to be one of the few states where Clinton would help his cause. Clinton also fared well in Louisiana in his career, so perhaps he could be of use there as well. Clearly he won't be needed in California or New York.
  
  This all looks good now for the Kerry folks, but keep in mind that the polls are razor-thin and could shift either way in many of the swing states.
  
  I don't think anyone really reads these in-depth political discussions, but maybe I'll dig up some state-by-state polls.
  
  That is all.

• 3 - Eric Olsen

  Jul 22, 2004 at 7:51 am

  very interesting RJ, thanks! I would say this actually looks good for Bush because the overall situation in Iraq is likely to improve over the next several months, the economy will likely continue to improve, and Kerry excites his pets alone

• 4 - JR

  Jul 22, 2004 at 9:52 am

  I would say this actually looks good for Bush because the overall situation in Iraq is likely to improve over the next several months, the economy will likely continue to improve, and Kerry excites his pets alone
  
  But Bush will likely find something else to screw up by then. He's done so pretty consistently for the past three years, hence the inexorable slide in his approval ratings from something over 90% to below 50%.
  
  Stupid does as stupid is. Bush loses in November.

• 5 - Voxxy

  Jul 22, 2004 at 11:20 am

  I agree with Eric. By election day, you can put Iowa, Pennsylvania, maybe Minnesota and Washington in Bush's column. It won't be close.

• 6 - mike

  Jul 22, 2004 at 3:08 pm

  Notice how confident Bush is he's going to win? Remember that trial balloon floated a few weeks ago about cancelling the election if there is another terrorist attack, or the threat of one?
  
  We live in post-democratic and post-repubican America, my friends. Bush and Co. ain't leaving office. If it looks like they're going to lose, they're simply going to postpone the elections and introduce a modified form of military dictatorship.
  
  The only enjoyable part of it will be watching while all the advocates of spreading "democracy" to Iraq turn around and announce, that, sadly, reluctantly, they must support the President's action in these dark times. I'm keeping a list.

• 7 - Rodney Welch

  Jul 22, 2004 at 3:12 pm

  "It won't be close." Maybe not. Chew on this.

• 8 - Phillip Winn

  Jul 22, 2004 at 3:41 pm

  mike (#6), that's just crazy talking, man. Republicans have consistently shown themselves willing to turn on their own when they betray party principles. Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott leap to mind. If anybody were to pursue anything like the fantasy notion you've described, there would be blood in the streets -- that of the Bush administration.
  
  Seriously, I'm not sure what combination of events leads to someone making statements like that one, but it seems flat-out off the charts.

• 9 - boomcrashbaby

  Jul 22, 2004 at 4:01 pm

  Phillip, a lot of people in this country, to the tune of millions, believe exactly what Mike wrote. I don't want to believe it personally, but it is a fear of mine nagging in the back of my head nevertheless. My biggest concern is the republican controlled, paperless, unverifiable voting machines. It might sound crazy to you, but a lot of people feel that way.

• 10 - Mark Saleski

  Jul 22, 2004 at 4:10 pm

  ah fooey! none of this matters.
  
  if things keep moving along the way they are, economy slowly improving, no more major terrorist kaboomies...bush will win easily because:
  
  a. the bush camp will continue to roll out mountains of tv ads asserting that kerry is the worst thing this side of castro, liberal, liberal, liberal, liberal, liberal...
  
  b. the democrats, as usual, will do nothing to fight back.

• 11 - Rodney Welch

  Jul 22, 2004 at 4:39 pm

  Wake up, Mark -- it's 2004. Bush, Sr., learned the hard way in 1992 that the opposing party no longer sits back and lets them Willie Horton-ize issues. Whatever happens, it's going to be a relentlessly tough fight where NO ONE is going to be sitting down and every fist will be swinging.

• 12 - Bob A. Booey

  Jul 22, 2004 at 7:08 pm

  For what it's worth, I do think Bush will win (unfortunately). The reason is that he's seen the worst of the Iraq situation and has bounced back in the polls from it. Americans also refuse to hold a sitting President accountable for his national security blunders since they sympathize with his response to the tragedy he inadequately acted to prevent. The main reason, however, is that Americans are finally starting to believe that the economy is better even though statistics show that wages and job creation are still lagging behind overall growth. It took a while, but Americans feel better about the direction of the economy, which will be the bottom line in this election. Iraq is barely on the top 5 list of issues people care about.
  
  The biggest challenge for Kerry and Edwards will be mobilizing labor against Bush and keeping the blue-collar votes that Bush got in 2000 from getting him industrial states.
  
  Absent some huge scandal or absolute catastrophe, the election will be decided on people's perception of the economy in the last two months of the campaign. Everything else is window dressing.
  
  The debates will get a lot of the usual commentary from pundits and political geeks like me, but we already know what's going to happen. Kerry will out-argue Bush and we'll find Bush agreeable enough that people won't vote based on the debates.
  
  That being said, Kerry can win this if he runs a good, smart campaign. I think the electoral map lines up somewhat favorably for him at this point and Bush's numbers are precarious. His campaign staff (Rove, Dowd et al) know it'll be a dogfight. History proves that incumbents with his approval numbers and particularly the highly predictive "right direction - wrong direction" numbers that he has lose. I do expect those numbers to tick up after the convention, but he's in historic trouble strictly based upon the polls. There was also a recent study by Peter Nardulli of the U. of Illinois cited in the Chicago Tribune that showed that so-called "wartime" incumbent presidents get no boost at all from going to war and in fact are more likely to lose. History would seem to favor Kerry. I don't know that people's perceptions of national security and the economy are quite the same today as they have been in past elections, however. It'll be a hard race to predict because there's so much conflicting evidence and data -- the pundits were all wrong in 2000 and most of the talk now won't accurately predict what Americans will have on their mind as they go to the polls.
  
  Vonny: There is no way Bush is winning Minnesota. And it's also very unlikely that he'll win Washington. But he will center his efforts on states like Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida.
  
  My gut tells me that Bush will win. There's a lot of evidence to the contrary and perhaps it's my pessimism, but I think America refuses to hold him to high standards of accountability. We reward him for our low expectations of performance. Other factors like the ongoing culture war over gays and censorship will play a small, ancillary role, but this election will be more about the economy than social issues.
  
  The critical time for real analysis will be after the Republican convention. I'm interested to see then what the poll numbers say about the percentage of Americans who think we're headed in the "right/wrong direction" and the percentage of Americans who are confident in the economic recovery. We can't really say now though who will win this election with any certainty.
  
  That is all.

• 13 - Bob A. Booey

  Jul 22, 2004 at 7:12 pm

  Eric: out of curiosity, you're a Bush backer, right? You'll be voting Bush-Cheney in November? I'm assuming you also voted for them in 2000?
  
  Thanks.

• 14 - Eric Olsen

  Jul 22, 2004 at 7:45 pm

  I am undecided for 2004, leaning reluctantly toward Bush for foreign policy reasons. I have never voted for a Republican for president before.

• 15 - Hal Pawluk

  Aug 03, 2004 at 11:30 am

  Republicans have consistently shown themselves willing to turn on their own ...
  
  Only after they see which way the wind is blowing.

• 16 - Hal Pawluk

  Aug 03, 2004 at 11:33 am

  Bush, Sr., learned the hard way in 1992 that the opposing party no longer sits back and lets them Willie Horton-ize issues.
  
  That was then; this is now.
  
  Mike is right - the Dems need some grit.

• 17 - boss7777777

  Oct 01, 2004 at 1:55 pm

  i am a Bush supporter, i voted for him in 2000 and i will vote for him in 2004. he has done a great job during diffcult times and he has prove himself as a leader that does what he says weather public opinion/ or this so call U.N. we have. Kerry is not a leader and he changes his opinions like the wind. our ememys would love for kery to get the job because they could talk him into anything. GOd bless president Bush and may God give him wisdom for the next 4 years as our country is going through difficult times.

• 18 - Taloran

  Oct 01, 2004 at 2:34 pm

  Bush is counting on, and will receive, the support of the illiterate oafs out there like boss7777777 in comment 17. Since there are plenty of them, I fear Dubya will win the election.