Astronomers anticipate the approach of a prominent-sized asteroid as it passes Earth just beyond the orbit of the moon.
Discovered by Lincoln Laboratory Near Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) on December 10, 2004, Asteroid 2004 XP14, is due to come uncomfortably close to Earth during the early hours of Monday, July 3, 2006.
The LINEAR project, funded by the United States Air Force and NASA, uses technology that was developed to monitor satellites orbiting the Earth, in an attempt to locate and record potential cosmic threats to our planet. To date, the LINEAR project has confirmed 1622 Near Earth Objects (NEOs), which also includes comets with a close approach orbit to the Earth. The greatest current potential impact risk, at an estimated diameter of 300 metres, is asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) when it approaches Earth in April of 2036. The probability of 99942 Apophis impacting the Earth is 0.0026% or 1 in 38,000.
Believed to be 600 metres or more in diameter, Asteroid 2004 XP14 was originally thought to be an impact threat, but further studies of its orbit later revealed the big rock is not an immediate danger to the Earth. Classed as a PHA (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid), 2004 XP14 is one of 796 within this classification, which is defined as an asteroid with a Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with the Earth of 0.05 AU or less, and an absolute magnitude of 22.0 or brighter.
The asteroid will pass just beyond the orbit of the moon at 1.1 LD (lunar distance from Earth) and is expected to reach an absolute magnitude of 12, so amateur and professional astronomers will be readying their telescopes in order to catch a glimpse of the fly-by. It will be traveling at a relative velocity of 17.41 kilometres per second.
At a distance of 1.7 LD, the most recent close approach by an NEO was only a few days ago on June 28th 2006, by 2006 MB14, but at an estimated diameter of 24-53 metres, it was a mere pebble compared to 2004 XP14. NEOs at such distances are somewhat rare. The next known asteroid expected to pass at a comparable distance of 1.4 LD, is 2005 YU55 in November of 2011; and then another, 1999 AN10, in August of 2027 at a distance of 1.0 LD. NASA reports that asteroid 1999 AN10 is at least 1 kilometre in diameter, and with the projected distance of this asteroid relative to the moon, we can certainly anticipate apocalyptic stories to accompany its approach.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - sr
Maybe if were lucky, it will hit ted kennedy house.
2 - Warren
I can't imagine anything worse except nuclear war if that thing hit our world!!! Are people so uneducated to not realize that these things have hit Earth thousands of times in the past and WILL hit Earth again!!! We need to tell our governments to DO SOMETHING!!!!
3 - wolfe
^^ Chill..
4 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Warren,
What is the government going to do? If they try to nuke an incming asteroid, they'll create MORE asteroids.
Repeat after me...
When de univoise toins its back you, you hafta toin your back on de univoise!
Hakuna Matata!
Maybe there are times, you just have to pray to G-d that we are all worthy of being spared such a disaster - and then behave in such a way as to convince Him.
5 - Victor Plenty
In reality there is a great deal we can do to protect our planet from future impacts by large asteroids or comets. However, all of the best protective measures involve having an active human presence in space.
The key to preventing this type of disaster is early detection. Our chances of early detection will be much better if we have a detection system that is no longer limited to our own planet.
Right now we have detected only a fraction of the objects that could potentially smash into our world, because there is only so much we can see when all our telescopes are stuck here.
6 - Dark
can we hack it ? :D
7 - jose
There is not human power to stop this type of disaster. We can not turn the earth in another direction as a car nor send a missile. If is going to happen, is going to happen... Good luck!!!
8 - rakim
The gov in my opinion is doing all he can... for the moment they only count the asteroids :D :D :D :D :D
9 - John Roush
My personal theory (and I have yet to hear of it in any scientific journal or article) of how to best avoid a catastrophic collision with a NEO is to send a spacecraft to the object and have it drill into its interior to anchor itself to the object and then deploy a huge parachute that can be adjusted to the varing solar wind intensities so that a somewhat controlled force can be applied to it to slow it down and alter its timing of intersection with earth's solar orbit. The ideal goal of such alteration of its trajectory would probably be to stear the object into the sun, itself, where it could have a chance of totally being destroyed and permanently ending its threat to humankind. I hope a good scientist reads this and analyzes its feasability.
10 - Victor Plenty
Humans do in fact have the power to stop such disasters, provided we know about them early enough.
When a large object is only a few days away from striking our planet, by then it is far too late for us to stop it. This much is true.
If our warning comes a few months or a couple of years before the impact, this also is probably too late to help us.
However, it's a different story if we can track the orbits of such objects well enough to know when one might hit us several years from now, and even better if we can see their orbits several decades ahead. It would take only a very small change in such an object's orbit to make it miss our planet completely. This tiny deflection is well within the capabilities of our current technology.
If we are prudent enough to invest in the early detection systems, and we get enough advance warning, we could easily prevent potential impacts that would become unstoppable later on.
11 - Victor Plenty
John, various types of solar sail techniques have been discussed many times as possible methods for asteroid deflection.
Steering an asteroid into the sun would be a terribly wasteful act, however. There are far better uses for any such object once it has been brought under human control.
Scientific study of such an object can give us insights into the early history of our solar system. Many asteroids are rich sources of precious metals such as iron and iridium that could be used to develop space infrastructure, and others are rich in even more precious metals such as platinum.
Letting such a thing crash into the sun is almost as crazy as letting it smash into the earth.
12 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Victor, John,
You both express great ideas. Do you think your country has enough money to pull them off, not to mention the moxie?
13 - Victor Plenty
Ruvy, if an object is detected early enough, deflecting it away from our planet would not be much more difficult than landing a spacecraft on Mars.
Granted, we've had plenty of trouble with our Mars missions, so we shouldn't depend on any one spacecraft to handle the impact deflection mission if it becomes necessary.
However, we certainly have enough money to do it several times over. All we lack right now is the political will to prepare our defenses. That part could change rapidly if astronomers confirm a specific impact event well enough to set a particular date for the disaster.
14 - sr
We have a better chance of getting hit with blue ice then any asteroid. NUKE THE UNBORN GAY ASTEROIDS.
15 - Jet in Columbus
With Bush diverting funds for science and astronomy projects to the war and his moon/mars mission, there's not much chance of us detecting anything on in time.
Also many asteroids are not solid rock but a cluster of smaller ones brought together by gravity. Pushing against one would be more likely to break it apart than to dislodge it from its course.
The only reliable method is the one in front of our faces, the moon's gravity diverting it off course, but only if it's in the right position to do so. You only have to look at our lunar friend to see how many times that's happened already.
Of course there's always that silly garbage bag commercial...
16 - Matthew T. Sussman
There you have it, ladies and gents. If an asteroid hits us, it's Bush's fault.
If something does come our way, just find the world's best Atari player and those asteroids will be history.
17 - Victor Plenty
Every president since the Apollo moon landings has done stupid things to reduce the agency's effectiveness, so I don't accept any effort to lay all the blame for its current troubles on Bush.
As for the asteroid types that might be easily broken apart, all the more reason to achieve early detection so we can minimize the force applied to any object we need to deflect.
Of course no human technology is going to reach 100% effectiveness, just as the lunar deflection effect has not provided our world 100% protection from impacts. However, we might feel rather foolish if it turns out we all get killed by an object that was indeed one of the types we could have easily deflected.
18 - sr
Hello Jet, hope all is well for you. Comment #15 you mentioned lunar friend. Did you mean looney friend with many hits to the head from blue ice and asteroids? Was married to this very large women and she had many assdroids. She married later to a bigfoot if I recall. Have a great 4th dude and drink much rum for me. sr
19 - Jet in Columbus
In the last six years we could've made huge strides in this area and to childishly say that since other presidents didn't-that gives Bush an excuse not to either, is the ultimate in irresponsibility.
During past presidencies this problem wasn't as well known, researched or urgent as it has been in the last six years.
If we were hit by one that wasn't detected, you damn well better believe I'll lay the blame squarely on Bush. The billions we've spent and thousands of lives we've wasted on his useless war could've been better spent on cures for world diseases or science.
At the end of his USELESS war, the middle east will be NO BETTER OFF than it was before we invaded Iraq and you know it!
20 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Good to see you back in action, Jet. Kept this short chapter length comment just for you, guy...
Hope the eyes are not bothering you too much...
I knew somebody would drag Bush into this discussion somehow. Maybe what you Americans need for the Fourth is a "burning Bush." Then you can "turn in to see this less than great sight."
21 - Jet in Columbus
"Kept this short chapter length comment just for you" IT-it's the big one 'lizabeth-I'm comin' for ya honey!!!
22 - Victor Plenty
Wow. I'm guilty of the ultimate in irresponsibility? Quick work for a Monday morning, I guess. Welcome back, Jet.
However, please note that I did not entirely absolve Bush of any responsibility for the sad state of affairs over at NASA. Of course he could have provided much better leadership than he has. It just doesn't make any sense to lay all the blame on him, because the American people have spent decades letting every single president get away with neglecting or outright damaging the capabilities of NASA.
Ultimately, we the people are the ones responsible because we have failed to make official mismanagement of NASA have any real political consequences for our elected representatives.
23 - Jet in Columbus
Oh that clears it up... thanks
24 - Matthew T. Sussman
Get a load of Jet "Waah, My Opinion Is As Valid As Yours" in Columbus, in Comment 19, invalidating anyone who disagrees with him on a subject completely unrelated to the topic at hand.
25 - sr
Now Im confused. What does this subject have to do with Michael Jackson, pit bulls and Capt Morgan? From the village idiot. sr