A Look Back at "Ten Amazingly Accurate Tech Predictions for 2009"

This is part of the "2009 in Review" group writing project. To find out more about this project, please check out Daily Blog Tips.

Last year, I wrote an article detailing Ten Amazingly Accurate Tech Predictions for 2009 here on Blogcritics. At the time, the article generated pages of comments and debate, all of which centered around how insane I was. Though some of the predictions were outright crazy, several of them actually came true. Here, to get you pumped up for the 2010 version, is a recap of my predictions along with a look at how accurate they turned out to be.

1. Apple will start to lose desktop/laptop market share.

With Apple growing by leaps and bounds, my prediction seemed like an idiotic thing to assume. However, according to IDC, it was not a bad prediction at all. While sales of computers and laptops declined over 2009, some companies were able to take advantage of the smaller economy. Companies like Acer and HP released netbooks, allowing them to take control of the market. This boost in their sales harmed other companies, notably Dell and Apple. As a result, Apple's market share fell from 8.5% to 7.6%, placing them back in sixth place in the market.

Score: Robert Barga - 1, Evil Companies Out to Get Me - 0

2. Apple will release a tablet/netbook/large iPod Touch.

Let me just say that I was not alone in thinking that Apple would jump on the netbook bandwagon. Sure, they would have their own style and make it unique, but I thought that in 2009, Apple would release a netbook. Engadget, Macworld, and Crave all seemed to agree with me, making me feel better about this prediction. That said, Apple never released this product, and I got stuck looking like a moron.

Score: Robert Barga - 1, Evil Companies Out to Get Me - 1

3. The Netbook market takes off, but Windows XP remains the primary OS.

While Apple may be ignoring the netbook market, the rest of the world isn't. In 2009, the market grew an amazing seven times what it had been before, amounting to 8% of all PC shipments! While the market share was taking off, the OS inside of these machines was staying pretty stable; while Microsoft claims that 93% of the computers are running XP, Linux is claiming that 33% are running Linux. Obviously, neither side is truthful, so the proper number probably falls somewhere in the10-20% Linux range. Either way, Windows XP is still dominating the netbook OS market, and clearly will until people upgrade to Windows 7.

Article Author: Robert M. Barga

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