Down to 9962.22, the Dow was off 178 points, or 1.75 percent for the week, and is off 4.7 percent so far this year. It was the fifth weekly loss in a row.For long-term, buy-and-hold investors, however, the more significant statistic is that the Dow is back to where it was before it initially broke the 10,000 mark on its way up in 1999. In five years, Wall Street's 30 most-watched stocks have gone nowhere.
The Nasdaq Stock Market composite index and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell in parallel. The S&P lost 15 points, or 1.4 percent, and at 1086.20 is off 2.3 percent year to date. The Nasdaq composite fell 34 points — 1.8 percent — leaving if off 7.7 percent for the year at 1849.09.
[...] Rick Bensignor, chief technical strategist at Morgan Stanley, does not think this week marked the end of the decline, even though the S&P managed to hold above its year-to-date low of 1076, a minor technical victory Friday in an otherwise destructive week.
Many investors, professional and novice alike, think another term for President Bush would be better for stocks. But the market has posted more significant gains under Democratic presidents. Going back to 1945, whenever a Democrat was in office, the Standard & Poor's 500 gained an average 10.7 percent per year, versus only 7.6 percent during Republican administrations.But incumbents definitely held an edge during the same period. During the same time frame, whenever they have been re-elected, the markets rose an average 7.5 percent in the subsequent year. When a sitting president has lost, the market has declined an average 4.7 percent the following year.
[...]
And no matter who wins, many of the current concerns will remain, said Stovall, of S&P. They include decelerating corporate earnings, rising interest rates and a persistent worry that the upturn Wall Street recently experienced was merely a cyclical bull market within a secular — or long-term — bear market.
Article comments
1 - Hal Pawluk
It's not that clear that the economy is improving, unless you're a corporation or rich.
Corporate profits have risen 42% but real wages have dropped (2.6% down in June).
Part of the reason for the wage drop is the deficits, which have devalued the dollar to the point of increasing prices of imports, especially oil. Food, housing and commodity prices are also up.
Consumer spending was on a roll, but that was largely driven by the low-interest home re-financing boom (most refi's were mostly spent). High end purchases continue, but low end purchases are starting to fall back (in the past year, Bulgari sales are up over 20% while Wal-Mart sales are up 2.2%).
Jobs still suck.
While the unemployment rate remained flat in the latest figures, this does not take into account the 750,000 unemployed who ran out of benefits and are no longer in the statistics.
It also does not take into account those who are no longer looking for work, and this figure has increased by 3 million during the Bush administration.
The jobs increase of 1.4 million during the last year is deceptive because it just about matches the number of new workers entering the labor market (at about 135,000/month). Overall, employment is still short about 4 million jobs lost during this adminstration.
2 - Bernard
I am willing to bet, most terrorists prefer Bush to win the elections. Or they'll have to come up with a marketingstrategy all by their lonesome selves.
You see RJ, all conservatives everywhere want Bush to win. He can't loose. Don't worry.
3 - Shark
Shark's Stock Market Investment Advice:
Invest in China!
They'll soon replace the US in every economic category, (including ownership of US land, firms, etc.) while we ride the Wal-Martianization trend into Third World status.
4 - Hal Pawluk
You're luckier than the seven million put out of work during this administration, RJ.
And of those who still have jobs, many are finding that their companies are no longer offering health coverage, or asking the employees to pay much more for the coverage.
5 - Mark Saleski
there's a pretty interesting article in the (i think) 6/28 edition of the new yorker about offshoring of jobs.
they actually profile a guy who works for a company in channai.
the extent of jobs shipped away is, plus future plans, is frightening.