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RJ’s NFL Picks, Week Fifteen

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I went 12-4 last week. That puts me at 130-78 for the season. For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.

Note: This week’s column will be very short due to several factors – a Thursday game, the author getting ready to go out of town in a few days, and the author feeling incredibly lazy. Please submit any complaints and/or computer viruses to Blogcritics Magazine Sports Editor Matt Sussman. Bonus points for attaching nude photographs of passable transsexuals.

Here are my picks for the NFL's Week 15:

*Thursday, December 13, 2007*

Denver (6-7) at Houston (6-7) – 8:15 pm (Sheridan's line: Houston by 1) [Worth Watching!]

Denver crushed the Chiefs last week, 41-7. The Broncos are just 2-4 on the road this season. Houston beat Tampa Bay last week. They are 4-2 at home this year. Sure thing first-ballot Hall of Famer Sage Rosenfels will start under center again this week for the Texans.

RJ's Pick – Houston by 11

*Saturday, December 15, 2007*

Cincinnati (5-8) at San Francisco (3-10) – 8:15 pm (Sheridan's line: Cincinnati by 8) [Worth Missing]

The Bengals are just 1-5 on the road this season. But the 49ers have gone 1-5 at home.

RJ's Pick – Cincinnati by 4

*Sunday, December 16, 2007*

Arizona (6-7) at New Orleans (6-7) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: New Orleans by 3.5) [Worth Watching!]

Arizona got spanked by the Seahawks last week, and now they only have a slim chance of making the postseason as a Wild Card. The Cardinals are just 2-5 on the road. New Orleans beat Atlanta on MNF last week to keep their meager playoff hopes alive. The Saints have lost four of six at home so far this season.

RJ's Pick – New Orleans by 1

Atlanta (3-10) at Tampa Bay (8-5) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Tampa Bay by 12) [Worth Missing]

It's been an interesting week for the Atlanta Falcons organization. They got blown out at home on MNF to a mediocre team, Michael Vick was sentenced to 23 months in federal prison, and their head coach, Bobby Petrino, resigned, meaning Emmitt Thomas will act as interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Atlanta is 1-5 on the road and has dropped four straight. (The curse of Joey Harrington lives on!) Tampa Bay is 5-1 at home and Jeff Garcia is expected to return this week.

RJ's Pick – Tampa Bay by 17

RJ'S LAME-GAME OF THE WEEK: Baltimore (4-9) at Miami (0-13) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Baltimore by 3) [Worth Watching!]

Baltimore has lost seven straight after a 4-2 start. They are just 1-5 on the road, and their offense is near the bottom of the league in most categories. This game is Miami's best remaining shot at avoiding an 0-16 season, but it isn't their last shot. After this week, the Dolphins play at New England (LOL), but then close out the season at home against the Bengals, which is at least arguably a winnable game for them. Still, they'd love to get it done this week instead of waiting until the last week of the season. I suspect they'll throw everything they've got into this game, knowing that an almost ritualistic slaughter awaits them next Sunday at the hands of Belichick's boys.

RJ's Pick – Miami by 4

Buffalo (7-6) at Cleveland (8-5) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Cleveland by 5.5) [MUST SEE]

The Bills have won two in a row, have a winning record, and are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot despite having allowed 76 more points than they have scored this season. The Browns have won three of their last four, have a winning record, and could possibly even win their division despite having allowed the most points and yards per game in the NFL. Cleveland is 5-1 at home, and has a vastly superior offense.

RJ's Pick – Cleveland by 9

Green Bay (11-2) at Saint Louis (3-10) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Green Bay by 9.5) [Worth Missing]

The Packers stomped Oakland last week, 38-7. The Rams lost to the Bengals last week with rookie Brock Berlin starting under center. The only question in this one is what the margin of victory will be.

RJ's Pick – Green Bay by 13

RJ'S GAME OF THE WEEK: Jacksonville (9-4) at Pittsburgh (9-4) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Pittsburgh by 4) [MUST SEE]

Jacksonville needs a win to make sure they stay a game ahead of Cleveland for the fifth seed Wild Card spot. Pittsburgh needs a win to make sure they stay a game ahead of Cleveland in the AFC North. (Both teams will be rooting for Buffalo this week.) Anyway, it should be a good, close, low-scoring game. I give the advantage to the Steelers only because they are 7-0 at home.

RJ's Pick – Pittsburgh by 1

New York Jets (3-10) at New England (13-0) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: New England by 24.5) [MUST SEE]

Two words: Revenge Game. Bill Belichick has had this date circled on his calendar (probably in elven blood) ever since Jets head coach Eric Mangina Mangini blew the whistle on "Tapegate" after the first week of the season. There will be no debate about whether or not the Patriots are "running up the score" this week; Belichick will put triple digits up on the scoreboard if he can. This ain't gonna be pretty. I don't care what the spread is, the Patriots are going to cover.

RJ's Pick – New England by 42

Seattle (9-4) at Carolina (5-8) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Seattle by 7) [Worth Missing]

Seattle has clinched their division. They have won five in a row. The only question is whether they'll get the third or fourth seed in the NFC playoffs. Carolina has been virtually eliminated from playoff contention after their ugly loss last week at Jacksonville. They are just 1-5 at home this season.

RJ's Pick – Seattle by 20

Tennessee (7-6) at Kansas City (4-9) – 1:00 pm (Sheridan's line: Tennessee by 4) [Worth Missing]

Tennessee lost a heart-breaker last week to San Diego in overtime. Vince Young looked awful as usual. The Titans have now lost four of their last five, and would find themselves missing the playoffs if the season ended today. They desperately need to win this game. Kansas City has dropped six straight, and they are just 2-5 at home this season. They have scored the second-fewest points in the NFL.

RJ's Pick – Tennessee by 8

Indianapolis (11-2) at Oakland (4-9) – 4:05 pm (Sheridan's line: Indianapolis by 10.5) [Worth Missing]

Indianapolis has all but secured yet another division title and a playoff bye. Oakland, on the other hand, is awful.

RJ's Pick – Indianapolis by 15

Detroit (6-7) at San Diego (8-5) – 4:15 pm (Sheridan's line: San Diego by 9.5) [Worth Watching!]

Detroit lost an absolute heart-breaker last week to the Cowboys, 28-27. If I was still capable of feeling normal human emotions, I would have wept. Thankfully, as a lifelong Lions fan, I am bereft of all affect during Sundays in December. San Diego is 5-1 at home this season, while the Lions are 2-4 on the road. I see little reason to expect anything other than a blowout by the Chargers. However, hope springs eternal among the terminally neurotic Lions faithful.

RJ's Pick – Detroit by 3

Philadelphia (5-8) at Dallas (12-1) – 4:15 pm (Sheridan's line: Dallas by 10) [Worth Missing]

The Eagles have dropped three straight, and have been pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. The Cowboys had a scare last week at Detroit, but were still able to pull out the last-minute win. Tony Romo has become sort of a secular god to Cowboys fans. I hear the most popular new sex toy among women in the Dallas area is a Tony Romo bobblehead. (Andrea Kremer apparently prefers the Tom Brady bobblehead. To each her own.)

RJ's Pick – Dallas by 14

Washington (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4) – 8:15 pm (Sheridan's line: New York Giants by 4) [Worth Watching!]

Hey, the Redskins actually won a game last week! They had dropped four in a row prior to that. At 6-7, they still have a credible chance of getting the final Wild Card playoff berth in the CFL NFC. The Giants have all but sewn up the fifth seed Wild Card spot. Expect a close one.

RJ's Pick – New York Giants by 2

*Monday, December 17, 2007*

Chicago (5-8) at Minnesota (7-6) – 8:30 pm (Sheridan's line: Minnesota by 9.5) [Worth Watching!]

The Bears are pretty much finished for the season after last week's loss. From the Super Bowl to last place in the NFC North in just one year; such is life in the present-day NFL. The Vikings have won four in a row, and would make the playoffs as the sixth seed if the season ended today. However, the season does not end today; there are still three more games to be played. QB Tarvaris Jackson has actually looked pretty good in his last three outings, so he's certainly due to have a four-interception game. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson was held to just 3 yards on 14 carries last week, showing just how inconsistent he can be. I'm going with the upset.

RJ's Pick – Chicago by 3

(If you're interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan's Odds and ESPN's NFL "Expert" Picks.)

2007 Weekly Results
Week One – 11-5
Week Two – 9-7
Week Three – 10-6
Week Four – 7-7
Week Five – 9-5
Week Six – 10-3
Week Seven – 9-5
Week Eight – 10-3
Week Nine – 9-5
Week Ten – 7-7
Week Eleven – 10-6
Week Twelve – 10-6
Week Thirteen – 7-9
Week Fourteen – 12-4

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About RJ

  • alessandro

    Houston.

    Gee, things sure are quiet ’round here without Suss. He’s a big shot writing about fugo or tofo or sofa or something. We’re nothing to him now. NOTHING.

  • zingzing

    but which sex toy do you prefer?

    (that’s for picking chicago.)

    *go vikes*

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Does anybody think I should continue writing these columns during the playoffs? I mean, instead of 13 or 14 or 16 games per week to write about, there would only be four games during the first two rounds, then just two games, and then of course the Super Bowl. Feedback appreciated.

  • http://www.my-virtual-income.com Christopher Rose

    sure, just go into a bit more detail.

  • Bennett

    Okay, here goes… Based on my own formula taking into account win/loss, gut feeling, coin toss, and uncertain brain chemistry

    Cincinnati
    New England
    Baltimore
    Cleveland
    Tennessee
    Tampa Bay
    Green Bay
    Jacksonville
    Seattle
    Indianapolis
    San Diego
    Dallas
    New York
    Minnesota

    I say keep up the column right through the SB.

  • Chris McVetta

    I think you should keep on, keepin’ on, RJ! Heck, if Matt Millen keeps going …why can’t you??? (That was NOT a jab at you, RJ …honest and true …but, seriously, what kind of blackmail material does this guy HAVE to keep his job, year after year…?)

  • Brian

    Couldn’t hurt to keep picking. I’m sure there are some crazy pick-um pools that start just for playoffs or continue that far.

    I have a question or ya R.J. about your picks though.

    When you have a spread like:
    Washington (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4) – 8:15 pm (Sheridan’s line: New York Giants by 4)

    And you Pick:
    RJ’s Pick – New York Giants by 2

    Are you saying the NYG’s will actually win by 2 and therefore not cover?

    Or that they will win by 2 over the spread… in this case 6 points?

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Bennett:

    Thanks for your picks, but you missed a couple of games (Denver-Houston and Arizona-New Orleans).

    Chris:

    I think William Clay Ford, Sr. simply hates the hometown fans. That’s the only thing I can think of.

    Brian:

    I pick the winner and the margin of victory for every game. So, for example, I believe the Giants will win this week by 2 points (say, a final score of 22-20). If you are counting straight-up pick ‘em, then I’m picking the Giants to win the game. If you are counting spread picks, then I don’t think the Giants will cover the 4 point spread. I keep track of both my straight-up picks and my spread picks over the course of the season.

    REMF:

    Wishing you a delightful holiday season.

  • eastcoastlb

    He means they will win by 2 and not cover.

    RJ you HAVE to keep on writing! I look forward to this every Thursday night. It’s part of my system when I make picks for my pool.

    Open to anyone – if you had to pick 1 game(team) this week to beat the spread who would you pick?

  • Bennett

    Ack! That’s the brain chemistry I mentioned…

    Houston (over the hated Broncos)
    Arizona (in honor of Temple Stark)

    Have a great weekend!

  • alessandro

    Definitely. Go for it. The playoffs are cool.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Texans 31, Denver 13 – RJ 1-0

  • alessandro

    RJ, you think the coming snow storm will effect NE’s chances? Weather may stand in the way of their perfect season. We’re expecting 40 to 60cm in Montreal. I’m going to be fucken buried in snow.

    Cincinnati, TB, Baltimore (I want to take Miami soooo bad), Cleveland (going with home field here), GB, NE, Seattle, Tennessee, Indy, SD, Dallas (fricken Cowgirls), NYG, Minnesota, Pittsburgh (for no better reason that home field. Jacksonville as good as they are have not topped the so-called big teams enough to merit a pick here) and NO (again playing it safe with the home side. Anything can happen in these games.)

    That Romo clip is priceless! Whoever chose Ti Amo for this is hilarious. Growing up in these parts that song was big for the slow dances. Huge hit in Italy.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Alessandro:

    Yes, the weather could be a factor. In fact, I would like to amend my pick.

    New England by 41

    ;-P

  • DOM @ HSU

    vikings
    chargers
    cardinals.. (red bird of some sort)
    49ers
    Baltimore.. does not want to be the team to lose against the fins.

    everything else the same…

  • http://alexandria-jackson.blogspot.com/ Alexandria

    CIN, SEA, CLE, TN, MIA (they gotta win one), NE, NO, PIT, GB, TB, IND, DAL, SD, NYG, MN

    RJ, keep writing if you can. I mostly like your anecdotal comments.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Score:

    SF 20, Bengals 13 – RJ 1-1

  • DOM @ HSU

    niners.. haha i money lined that spitt..

  • YuTang

    RJ, What effect and what cities is this storm going to hit, cheers.

  • Bennett

    I don’t like the weather factor in today’s NE/NYJ game. It brings the random element more into play. I’d rather this match up was in less severe weather…

    If the Pats go into this game overconfident, they could end up on the short end.

    What’s with Cincinnati?

    Bennett 1-1

  • alessandro

    Five minutes to kick off. Maybe it’s the wine kicking in but I’m amending my pick to Miami. Sue me.

  • Bennett

    I should have shared that bottle alessandro… Good pick!

    I’m 7-4 at this point

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Scores:

    NO 31, Arizona 24 – RJ 2-1

    TB 37, Atlanta 3 – RJ 3-1

    Miami 22, Baltimore 16 (in OT) – RJ 4-1

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Scores:

    Cleveland 8, Bills 0 (!) – RJ 5-1

    Gren Bay 33, Rams 14 – RJ 6-1

    Jacksonville 29, Pittsburgh 22 – RJ 6-2

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Scores:

    New England 20, Jets 10 – RJ 7-2

    Carolina 13, Seattle 10 – RJ 7-3

    Tennessee 26, KC 17 – RJ 8-3

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through 11 games:

    Wickersham 6-5
    Salisbury 6-5
    Hoge 7-4
    Jaworski 7-4
    Schlereth 6-5
    Allen 6-5
    Mortensen 8-3
    Golic 7-4
    Accuscore 6-5

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Colts 21, Oakland 14 – RJ 9-3

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Kitna just threw his fifth INT of the game…oy…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Scores:

    SD 51(!), Detroit 14 – RJ 9-4

    Eagles 10, Dallas 6 – RJ 9-5

  • DOM @ HSU

    9-5… luckily i started Warner this week.. heh..

  • Travis

    Your a cock…..Chicago….you must be retarded…or a lions fan.

    Fritz

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Score:

    Washington 22, Giants 10 – RJ 9-6

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Wickersham 8-7
    Salisbury 8-7
    Hoge 9-6
    Jaworski 9-6
    Schlereth 8-7
    Allen 8-7
    Mortensen 11-4
    Golic 9-6
    Accuscore 6-5(?)

  • Bennett

    9-6

    As long as good at this as the experts…

  • Bennett

    Foc,

    “as long as I’m as good at this as the experts”…

    Jeez, wake up before you type!

  • DOM @ HSU

    they screwed acuscore over so the experts would beat it..

  • DOM @ HSU

    10-6 this week…. that would of been heck of a call with Chicago RJ.. almost like dom picking the Niners over the Bengals.. Bears should of one…. they must of had a great inspirational speech at halftime.. (sarcasm)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Final Score:

    Vikings 20, Bears 13 – RJ 9-7

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    Wickersham 9-7
    Salisbury 9-7
    Hoge 10-6
    Jaworski 9-6
    Schlereth 9-7
    Allen 9-7
    Mortensen 12-4
    Golic 10-6
    Accuscore 9-7(?)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    I went 10-6 ATS this week…

  • YuTang

    Oh and Fritz, Chicago covered the spread, now who is the c*ck, lol.

  • eastcoastlb

    Today my worked blocked this site! Ugh totally not cool!

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ Elliott

    My Week 16 column is now available.