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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2012 Edition: Week Nine

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I went 10-4 straight up last week, and 7-7 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 72-46 and 50-63-5 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.com.

What follows are my picks for the NFL’s Week Nine:

**Thursday, November 1**

Kansas City 1-6 at San Diego 3-4 – 8:20 p.m. (Line: SD by 7)

The Chiefs have lost four in a row. They are ranked 29th in the league in both points scored per game and points allowed per game. Matt Cassel has thrown 10 INTs and lost six fumbles so far this season. The total time of possession the Chiefs have played with the lead this year is 0:00. (They earned their only victory with a game-ending field goal in overtime.) The Chargers have lost three straight and have the second best run defense in the league.

- RJ’s Pick: San Diego by 3

**Sunday, November 4**

Detroit 3-4 at Jacksonville 1-6 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Lions by 3.5)

The Lions surprisingly (perhaps shockingly) have a top 10 pass defense. Matthew Stafford is averaging more than 300 passing yards per game. The Jaguars have scored just 103 total points this season, the fewest in the NFL and have dropped four straight.

- RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 7

Denver 4-3 at Cincinnati 3-4 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Broncos by 3.5)

Broncos QB Peyton Manning has thrown 17 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. His passer rating is 109.0, best in the league. The Bengals have lost their last three.

- RJ’s Pick: Denver by 8

Baltimore 5-2 at Cleveland 2-6 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Ravens by 3.5)

The Ravens are just 1-2 on the road this season. The Browns have won their last two home games.

- RJ’s Pick: Cleveland by 3

Arizona 4-4 at Green Bay 5-3 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: GB by 10.5)

The Cardinals, who began the season by winning their first four games, have now lost four straight and are at .500. The Packers have won three in a row. Aaron Rodgers has not thrown in INT since Week Five. He’s had a triple-digit passer rating in five of his last six games.

- RJ’s Pick: Green Bay by 15

Chicago 6-1 at Tennessee 3-5 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Bears by 3.5)

The Bears have won five straight. Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman have each returned two INTs for TDs this season. Tim Jennings has six interceptions including one he returned for a touchdown. Major Wright has three interceptions, one of which he returned for a TD. The Bears defense is on pace to smash the league record for total pick-sixes in a season, which is nine. The Titans have allowed 257 points, most in the NFL.

- RJ’s Pick: Chicago by 9

Miami 4-3 at Indianapolis 4-3 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Dolphins by 2.5)

Not many would have predicted before the season began that this matchup would feature two legitimate Wild Card contenders. The Dolphins have won three in a row. They are allowing just 18 points per game. The Colts have won their last two. Reggie Wayne leads the league in receiving yards.

- RJ’s Pick: Indianapolis by 4

Carolina 1-6 at Washington 3-5 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: WASH by 3.5)

The Panthers have lost five straight. They are winless on the road this season. Cam Newton has more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (five). The Redskins have the league’s worst defense against the pass. Rookie RB Alfred Morris is third in the NFL in yards rushing.

- RJ’s Pick: Washington by 6

RJ’s Mismatch Of The Week: Buffalo 3-4 at Houston 6-1 – 1:00 p.m. (Line: HOU by 10)

The Bills have the league’s worst defense against the run, and are allowing over 32 points per game. The Texans are scoring almost 31 points per game. You will definitely want to start Arian Foster on your fantasy football team this week.

- RJ’s Pick: Houston by 21

Minnesota 5-3 at Seattle 4-4 – 4:05 p.m. (Line: SEA by 4.5)

The Vikings are just 1-2 on the road this season. The Seahawks are unbeaten at home.

- RJ’s Pick: Seattle by 2

Tampa Bay 3-4 at Oakland 3-4 – 4:05 p.m. (Line: OAK by 2)

Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has thrown nine TD passes and just one INT since the team’s bye week. The Raiders have won two straight and are 2-1 at home this season.

- RJ’s Pick: Tampa Bay by 5

Pittsburgh 4-3 at New York Giants 6-2 – 4:25 p.m. (Line: NYG by 3)

The Steelers defense is ranked in the top 10 in all major categories. Jonathan Dwyer has provided some life to their run game with two straight 100+ yard performances. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just three interceptions in 268 passing attempts. The Giants have won four in a row. They are averaging over 29 points scored per game.

- RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 6

Dallas 3-4 at Atlanta 7-0 – 8:20 p.m. (Line: ATL by 4)

Pity the poor Cowboys. They are ranked seventh in the league in total yards of offense per game and fourth in the league in total yards allowed per game, but they have a losing record nonetheless. Tony Romo leads the NFL in interceptions with 13. The Falcons remain the NFL’s only undefeated team. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both on pace for over 1000 receiving yards this season.

- RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 10

**Monday, November 5**

Philadelphia 3-4 at New Orleans 2-5 – 8:30 p.m. (Line: NO by 3.5)

This is a matchup between two disappointing teams. The Eagles have lost three straight and Michael Vick is on the cusp of getting benched. The Saints are ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards per game and also last in total yards allowed per game.

- RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 8

(Bye Week teams: St. Louis 3-5, New England 5-3, New York Jets 3-5, and San Francisco 6-2)

If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.

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About RJ

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORE:

    SD 31, KC 13 – RJ 1-0 (0-1 ATS)

  • C2E

    Good analysis, but I miss the humor!

    I think I have a one or two game avantage on outright YTD win-loss percentage, but I don’t have that info here at the office.

    We differ on two matchups this week:

    Chargers over Chiefs
    Packers over Cardinals
    Lions over Jaguars
    Bears over Titans
    Broncos over Bengals
    Redskins over Panthers
    Browns over Ravens
    Colts over Dolphins
    Texans over Bills
    Seahawks over Vikings
    *Raiders over Buccaneers
    *Giants over Steelers
    Falcons over Cowboys
    Saints over Eagles

    Good luck!
    Chris

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    LIONS 31, JACKSONVILLE 14 – RJ 2-0 (1-1 ATS)

    DENVER 31, BENGALS 23 – RJ 3-0 (2-1 ATS)

    RAVENS 25, BROWNS 15 – RJ 3-1 (2-2 ATS)

    GB 31, ARIZONA 17 – RJ 4-1 (3-2 ATS)

    BEARS 51, TITANS 20 – RJ 5-1 (4-2 ATS)

    COLTS 23, MIAMI 20 – RJ 6-1 (5-2 ATS)

    CAROLINA 21, WASHINGTON 13 – RJ 6-2 (5-3 ATS)

    TEXANS 21, BILLS 9 – RJ 7-2 (6-3 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    SEATTLE 30, VIKINGS 20 – RJ 8-2 (6-4 ATS)

    TB 42, OAKLAND 32 – RJ 9-2 (7-4 ATS)

    STEELERS 24, GIANTS 20 – RJ 10-2 (8-4 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Atlanta 19, Dallas 13 – RJ 11-2 (9-4 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    NO 28, Eagles 13 – RJ 12-2 (10-4 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through nine weeks:

    84-48 straight up

    60-67-5 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s “experts” in Week Nine:

    Allen
    10-4
    Golic
    10-4
    Hoge
    9-5
    Jaworski
    12-2
    Mortensen
    10-4
    Schefter
    9-5
    Schlereth
    11-3
    Wickersham
    11-3
    Jackson
    10-4
    Johnson
    9-5
    Ditka
    10-4
    Carter
    11-3
    Accuscore
    10-4
    Pick ‘em
    12-2

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s “experts” through nine weeks:

    Allen
    77-55
    Golic
    82-50
    Hoge
    83-49
    Jaworski
    83-49
    Mortensen
    92-40
    Schefter
    80-52
    Schlereth
    81-51
    Wickersham
    94-38
    Jackson
    75-57
    Johnson
    79-53
    Ditka
    78-54
    Carter
    82-50
    Accuscore
    82-50
    Pick ‘em
    84-47