I went 11-4 last week straight up, and 9-5-1 against the spread. That puts me at 33-30 straight up for the season, and 26-34-3 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.
Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Five:
Thursday, October 4
Arizona (4-0) at St. Louis (2-2) 8:20 p.m. [Line: Arizona by 1]
The Cardinals are undefeated, but could easily be 1-3. They had a come-from-behind victory in Week One against Seattle, a win against New England in Week Two that would have been a loss if Stephen Gostkowski hadn’t missed a field goal in the closing seconds, and they beat Miami last week in overtime after tying the game up with less than a minute to go in the 4th quarter. The Rams are 2-0 at home.
-RJ’s Pick: Rams by 3
Sunday, October 7
Miami (1-3) at Cincinnati (3-1) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Cincinnati by 3.5]
The Dolphins have lost their last two games in overtime, which probably isn’t good for team morale. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has a passer rating of 103.0 through four games.
-RJ’s Pick: Bengals by 10
Green Bay (2-2) at Indianapolis (1-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Green Bay by 7]
Ask a Packers fan, and they’ll say Green Bay is really 3-1. But in reality, they are fortunate not to be 1-3 after a one point margin of victory at home against winless New Orleans last week. The Colts are coming off their bye week. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck has thrown four touchdowns and just one interception at home this season.
-RJ’s Pick: Packers by 2
Baltimore (3-1) at Kansas City (1-3) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Baltimore by 5]
The Ravens have allowed 296 passing yards per game, fourth most in the league. The Chiefs are 0-2 at home, and have allowed 35 or more points in three of their four games.
-RJ’s Pick: Ravens by 11
Atlanta (4-0) at Washington (2-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Atlanta by 3]
The unbeaten Falcons have scored at least 27 points in every game this season, and QB Matt Ryan has a 112.1 passer rating. The Redskins have the league’s top rushing offense, averaging 176 yards per game on the ground. Rookie RB Alfred Morris already has four rushing TDs and had his first 100-yard game last week.
-RJ’s Pick: Falcons by 8
Cleveland (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: New York Giants by 8.5]
The Browns have yet to win a game, but they’ve been competitive, with just a -25 point differential. The Super Bowl champion Giants have the NFL’s second best passing attack, averaging 322 yards per game through the air.
-RJ’s Pick: New York Giants by 4
The Battle of Pennsylvania: Philadelphia (3-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Pittsburgh by 3.5]
The Eagles have gotten their three wins by margins of 1, 1, and 2. The Steelers are coming off their bye week. They have the league’s second worst rushing offense, but RB Rashard Mendenhall, who underwent knee surgery in the offseason, is expected to play his first game of the season this week.
-RJ’s Pick: Steelers by 9
Seattle (2-2) at Carolina (1-3) 4:05 p.m. [Line: Carolina by 3]
The Seahawks are 0-2 on the road this season. They have the league’s worst passing offense, averaging just 131 yards per game through the air. Rookie QB Russell Wilson has a passer rating of 73.5. Head coach Pete Carroll needs to make a change and start Matt Flynn under center if this team is going to have a shot at making the playoffs. Panthers QB Cam Newton has thrown more INTs (5) than TDs (4).
-RJ’s Pick: Seahawks by 1
Chicago (3-1) at Jacksonville (1-3) 4:05 p.m. [Line: Chicago by 5.5]
The Bears have the league’s third best run defense. The Jaguars have the most anemic offense in the NFL, averaging just 16 points and 254 yards per game.
-RJ’s Pick: Bears by 13
Tennessee (1-3) at Minnesota (3-1) 4:25 p.m. [Line: Minnesota by 5.5]
The Titans have the worst point differential in the league, at -70. They have allowed the most points per game in the NFL (38), and the second most yards per game (422). The surprising Vikings would quite possibly be undefeated if Indianapolis kicker Adam Vinatieri had not made a 53-yard field goal in the closing seconds of their Week Two matchup.
-RJ’s Pick: Vikings by 14
Denver (2-2) at New England (2-2) 4:25 p.m. [Line: New England by 6.5]
The Broncos are just .500, but it’s worth noting that they had the misfortune to start their season against three of last year’s playoff teams, which includes two of the three teams that remain unbeaten this season. The one weak team they’ve played is Oakland, and they beat them by 31 points and did not allow a touchdown.
The Patriots are also just .500, but both their losses were nail biters, losing because of a missed last-second field goal in Week Two, and losing in Week Three because of a last-second Baltimore field goal that some believe should have been ruled no good. Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. ‘Nuff said.
-RJ’s Pick: Patriots by 3
Buffalo (2-2) at San Francisco (3-1) 4:25 p.m. [Line: San Francisco by 9.5]
In their two losses, the Bills have allowed 50 points per game. In their two wins, they have allowed 16 points per game. The 49ers shut out the New York Jets last week 34-0 at MetLife Stadium. This game could be a thrashing.
-RJ’s Pick: 49ers by 17
San Diego (3-1) at New Orleans (0-4) 8:20 p.m. [Line: New Orleans by 3.5]
The Chargers are 2-0 on the road this season and sit atop the AFC West. However, the only good team they’ve played is Atlanta, who crushed them at home, 27-3. The Saints are the NFC’s only remaining winless team. Their defense has allowed the most rushing yards per game (187) and the most total yards per game (463) in the league. They have not allowed fewer than 27 points in a game this season. The over/under is 53.5 for this game, which is the most of any matchup this week, but I would still take the over.
-RJ’s Pick: Saints by 1
Monday, October 8
Houston (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2) 8:30 p.m. [Line: Houston by 7]
The Texans are the AFC’s only remaining undefeated team. They have given up just 14 points per game, the fewest in the league so far this season. The Jets have allowed 173 rushing yards per game, the second most in the NFL. QB Mark Sanchez has a 69.6 passer rating, the lowest in the league for a non-rookie. My clock is saying that it’s almost Tebow Time…
-RJ’s Pick: Texans by 15
Bye Week teams: Dallas (2-2), Detroit (1-3), Oakland (1-3), and Tampa Bay (1-3).
If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.Powered by Sidelines