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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2012 Edition: Week Five

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I went 11-4 last week straight up, and 9-5-1 against the spread. That puts me at 33-30 straight up for the season, and 26-34-3 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Five:

Thursday, October 4

Arizona (4-0) at St. Louis (2-2) 8:20 p.m. [Line: Arizona by 1]

The Cardinals are undefeated, but could easily be 1-3. They had a come-from-behind victory in Week One against Seattle, a win against New England in Week Two that would have been a loss if Stephen Gostkowski hadn’t missed a field goal in the closing seconds, and they beat Miami last week in overtime after tying the game up with less than a minute to go in the 4th quarter. The Rams are 2-0 at home.

-RJ’s Pick: Rams by 3

Sunday, October 7

Miami (1-3) at Cincinnati (3-1) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Cincinnati by 3.5]

The Dolphins have lost their last two games in overtime, which probably isn’t good for team morale. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has a passer rating of 103.0 through four games.

-RJ’s Pick: Bengals by 10

Green Bay (2-2) at Indianapolis (1-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Green Bay by 7]

Ask a Packers fan, and they’ll say Green Bay is really 3-1. But in reality, they are fortunate not to be 1-3 after a one point margin of victory at home against winless New Orleans last week. The Colts are coming off their bye week. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck has thrown four touchdowns and just one interception at home this season.

-RJ’s Pick: Packers by 2

Baltimore (3-1) at Kansas City (1-3) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Baltimore by 5]

The Ravens have allowed 296 passing yards per game, fourth most in the league. The Chiefs are 0-2 at home, and have allowed 35 or more points in three of their four games.

-RJ’s Pick: Ravens by 11

Atlanta (4-0) at Washington (2-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Atlanta by 3]

The unbeaten Falcons have scored at least 27 points in every game this season, and QB Matt Ryan has a 112.1 passer rating. The Redskins have the league’s top rushing offense, averaging 176 yards per game on the ground. Rookie RB Alfred Morris already has four rushing TDs and had his first 100-yard game last week.

-RJ’s Pick: Falcons by 8

Cleveland (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: New York Giants by 8.5]

The Browns have yet to win a game, but they’ve been competitive, with just a -25 point differential. The Super Bowl champion Giants have the NFL’s second best passing attack, averaging 322 yards per game through the air.

-RJ’s Pick: New York Giants by 4

The Battle of Pennsylvania: Philadelphia (3-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2) 1:00 p.m. [Line: Pittsburgh by 3.5]

The Eagles have gotten their three wins by margins of 1, 1, and 2. The Steelers are coming off their bye week. They have the league’s second worst rushing offense, but RB Rashard Mendenhall, who underwent knee surgery in the offseason, is expected to play his first game of the season this week.

-RJ’s Pick: Steelers by 9

Seattle (2-2) at Carolina (1-3) 4:05 p.m. [Line: Carolina by 3]

The Seahawks are 0-2 on the road this season. They have the league’s worst passing offense, averaging just 131 yards per game through the air. Rookie QB Russell Wilson has a passer rating of 73.5. Head coach Pete Carroll needs to make a change and start Matt Flynn under center if this team is going to have a shot at making the playoffs. Panthers QB Cam Newton has thrown more INTs (5) than TDs (4).

-RJ’s Pick: Seahawks by 1

Chicago (3-1) at Jacksonville (1-3) 4:05 p.m. [Line: Chicago by 5.5]

The Bears have the league’s third best run defense. The Jaguars have the most anemic offense in the NFL, averaging just 16 points and 254 yards per game.

-RJ’s Pick: Bears by 13

Tennessee (1-3) at Minnesota (3-1) 4:25 p.m. [Line: Minnesota by 5.5]

The Titans have the worst point differential in the league, at -70. They have allowed the most points per game in the NFL (38), and the second most yards per game (422). The surprising Vikings would quite possibly be undefeated if Indianapolis kicker Adam Vinatieri had not made a 53-yard field goal in the closing seconds of their Week Two matchup.

-RJ’s Pick: Vikings by 14

Denver (2-2) at New England (2-2) 4:25 p.m. [Line: New England by 6.5]

The Broncos are just .500, but it’s worth noting that they had the misfortune to start their season against three of last year’s playoff teams, which includes two of the three teams that remain unbeaten this season. The one weak team they’ve played is Oakland, and they beat them by 31 points and did not allow a touchdown.

The Patriots are also just .500, but both their losses were nail biters, losing because of a missed last-second field goal in Week Two, and losing in Week Three because of a last-second Baltimore field goal that some believe should have been ruled no good. Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. ‘Nuff said.

-RJ’s Pick: Patriots by 3

Buffalo (2-2) at San Francisco (3-1) 4:25 p.m. [Line: San Francisco by 9.5]

In their two losses, the Bills have allowed 50 points per game. In their two wins, they have allowed 16 points per game. The 49ers shut out the New York Jets last week 34-0 at MetLife Stadium. This game could be a thrashing.

-RJ’s Pick: 49ers by 17

San Diego (3-1) at New Orleans (0-4) 8:20 p.m. [Line: New Orleans by 3.5]

The Chargers are 2-0 on the road this season and sit atop the AFC West. However, the only good team they’ve played is Atlanta, who crushed them at home, 27-3. The Saints are the NFC’s only remaining winless team. Their defense has allowed the most rushing yards per game (187) and the most total yards per game (463) in the league. They have not allowed fewer than 27 points in a game this season. The over/under is 53.5 for this game, which is the most of any matchup this week, but I would still take the over.

-RJ’s Pick: Saints by 1

Monday, October 8

Houston (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2) 8:30 p.m. [Line: Houston by 7]

The Texans are the AFC’s only remaining undefeated team. They have given up just 14 points per game, the fewest in the league so far this season. The Jets have allowed 173 rushing yards per game, the second most in the NFL. QB Mark Sanchez has a 69.6 passer rating, the lowest in the league for a non-rookie. My clock is saying that it’s almost Tebow Time…

-RJ’s Pick: Texans by 15

Bye Week teams: Dallas (2-2), Detroit (1-3), Oakland (1-3), and Tampa Bay (1-3).

If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.

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About RJ

  • C2E

    Not as inventive as last week, but interesting anyway.

    Initially, we differ on a couple of picks, but I wait until tomorrow afternoon to finalize my picks. Food for thought, though.

    Still, I miss the sarcastic, snarky comments! You have a talent; use it!

    I hope to have time to post picks later. Not a good record through 4 weeks…

    Chris

  • E Howard Bailey

    If America only knew……

    The best Obama exposure site on the net:
    The Obama File

    The United States Library of Congress has selected TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collectionof Internet materials

    [edited]

    Obama’s books:

    In a sane world, having the following comments out in print via Obama’s racist books would have knocked him out of the running for president of the United States. (they would have crucified a white candidate for far less)

    From Dreams from My Father, ” I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER’S RACE”. Barack Hussein Obama

    From ‘Dreams from my Father’, “The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, THE OTHER RACE (WHITE) WOULD ALWAYS REMAIN JUST THAT: MENACING, ALIEN, AND APART.” Barack Hussein Obama

    From Dreams from My Father: “THAT HATE HADN’T GONE” he wrote, BLAMING “WHITE PEOPLE — some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives.” Barack Hussein Obama

    From ‘Dreams from My Father’, “There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs,” he wrote. “It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names” Barack Hussein Obama

    From ‘Dreams from My Father’, ‘I VOWED THAT I WOULD NEVER EMULATE WHITE MEN whose fates didn’t speak to my own. IT WAS INTO MY FATHER’S IMAGE, THE BLACK MAN, SON OF AFRICA, THAT I’D PACKED ALL THE ATTRIBUTES I SOUGHT IN MYSELF, THE ATTRIBUTES OF MARTIN AND MALCOLM, DUBOIS AND MANDELA’ Barack Hussein Obama

    From The Audicity of Hope: To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists.”

    From The Audicity of Hope: After graduating from college, Obama eventually went to Chicago to interview for a job as a community organizer. His racial attitudes came into play as he sized up the man who would become his boss: “There was something about him that made me wary,” Obama wrote. “A little too sure of himself, maybe. And white.”

    From The Audacity of Hope:..’the white race…”that ghostly figure that haunted black dreams.”

    From “Dreams”: (after making his first visit to Kenya, he wrote of being disappointed to learn that his paternal grandfather had been a servant to rich whites. that the revelation caused)”ugly words to flash across my mind. Uncle Tom. Collaborator. House n—–“.

    From ‘Audacity': “Her memories of the Christians who populated her youth were not fond ones,” Obama wrote. “For my mother, organized religion too often dressed up closed-mindedness in the garb of piety, cruelty and oppression in the cloak of righteousness.”

    “Malcolm X’s autobiography seemed to offer something different,” Obama wrote. “His repeated acts of self-creation spoke to me; the blunt poetry of his words, his unadorned insistence on respect, promised a new and uncompromising order, martial in its discipline, forged through sheer force

    Then there is his love of Islam:

    Quote from Barack Obama’s book, Dreams Of My Father:
    “THE PERSON WHO MADE ME PROUDEST OF ALL, THOUGH, WAS MY [half brother], ROY..HE CONVERTED TO ISLAM”.

    From ‘Dreams of my Father’, “IN INDONESIA, I SPEND TWO YEARS AT A MUSLIM SCHOOL” “..I STUDIED THE KORAN..”

    From ‘Audacity of Hope: “LOLO (Obama’s step father) FOLLOWED ISLAM….”I LOOKED TO LOLO FOR GUIDANCE”.

    From ‘The Audacity Of Hope, “I WILL STAND WITH THEM (MUSLIMS) SHOULD THE POLITICAL WINDS OF WAR SHIFT IN AN UGLY DIRECTION..”

    From The Audacity Of Hope, “WE ARE NO LONGER JUST A CHRISTIAN NATION, we are also a Jewish nation, a MUSLIM NATION, a Buddhist nation, a Hindu nation, and a nation of nonbelievers.”
    _________________________
    Don’t believe it? Think these comments taken ‘out of context’? Here it all here in his own works
    [edited]
    Obama mocks, makes fun of the Bible:
    [edited]
    ________________________________________
    Still need convincing?
    Race: [edited]
    Islam — early years [edited]
    Islam — candidate [edited]
    Dreams — Google books search [edited]
    Audacity — Google books search [edited]

    The “Search” box is in the left column of Google books. Enter a search phrase and hit enter.

    [Howard, if you want people to actually do all the research you urge them to do, it might be nice if you were to provide complete URLs rather than partial ones that peter out into ellipses… Thanks. Assistant Comments Editor]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Rams 17, Arizona 3 – RJ 1-0 (1-0 ATS)

  • Zingzing

    That was a good call… Hope you bet on it.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Thanks. No, I pretty much never bet on sports.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Chris: Thanks for your kind words and continued readership.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    MIA 17, Bengals 13 – RJ 1-1 (1-1 ATS)

    IND 30, GB 27 – RJ 1-2 (2-1 ATS)

    BAL 9, KC 6 – RJ 2-2 (2-2 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    ATL 24, Washington 17 – RJ 3-2 (3-2 ATS)

    Giants 41, Browns 27 – RJ 4-2 (3-3 ATS)

    Steelers 16, Eagles 14 – RJ 5-2 (3-4 ATS)

    Seattle 16, Carolina 12 – RJ 6-2 (4-4 ATS)

    CHI 41, Jags 3 – RJ 7-2 (5-4 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Vikes 30, Titans 7 – RJ 8-2 (6-4 ATS)

    NE 31, Denver 21 – RJ 9-2 (6-5 ATS)

    SF 45, Bills 3 – RJ 10-2 (7-5 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    NO 31, SD 24 – RJ 11-2 (7-6 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORE:

    HOU 23, JETS 17 – RJ 12-2 (7-7 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through five weeks:

    45-32 straight up

    33-41-3 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s experts in Week Five:

    Allen
    9-5
    Golic
    9-5
    Hoge
    10-4
    Jaworski
    10-4
    Mortensen
    10-4
    Schefter
    9-5
    Schlereth
    9-5
    Wickersham
    12-2
    Jackson
    10-4
    Johnson
    8-6
    Ditka
    10-4
    Carter
    11-3
    Accuscore
    10-4
    Pick ‘em
    10-4

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s experts through five weeks:

    Allen
    45-32
    Golic
    47-30
    Hoge
    46-31
    Jaworski
    45-32
    Mortensen
    55-22
    Schefter
    48-29
    Schlereth
    44-33
    Wickersham
    53-24
    Jackson
    43-34
    Johnson
    45-32
    Ditka
    44-33
    Carter
    46-31
    Accuscore
    45-32
    Pick ‘em
    47-30