I went 8-6 straight up last week, and 6-8 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 92-54 straight up and 66-75-5 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.com.
What follows are my picks for the NFL’s Week 11:
*Thursday, November 15*
Miami 4-5 @ Buffalo 3-6 at 8:20 p.m. (Line: BUFFALO BY 2.5)
The Dolphins have lost their last two games. The Bills have dropped three straight. It’s going to be cold in Orchard Park on Thursday night, giving the home team the advantage over their warm weather opponent.
—RJ’s Pick: Buffalo by 7
*Sunday, November 18*
Green Bay 6-3 @ Detroit 4-5 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: PACKERS BY 3.5)
Packers LB Clay Matthews is out of the lineup this week with a hamstring injury. The Lions are the only team in the NFC North with a losing record, but they are 2-1 at home this season.
—RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 2
Arizona 4-5 @ Atlanta 8-1 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: ATLANTA BY 9)
The Cardinals have lost five in a row. The Falcons suffered their first loss of the season last week, but they remain undefeated at home.
—RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 14
Cleveland 2-7 @ Dallas 4-5 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: DALLAS BY 7)
The Browns may have won just two games so far this season, but they’ve only lost one game by more than 10 points. The Cowboys play their next three games at home, all against teams with losing records.
—RJ’s Pick: Dallas by 3
Cincinnati 4-5 @ Kansas City 1-8 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: BENGALS BY 3.5)
The Bengals offense is averaging just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt this season. The Chiefs are winless at Arrowhead so far this season.
—RJ’s Pick: Cincinnati by 8
Philadelphia 3-6 @ Washington 3-6 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: WASHINGTON BY 3.5)
The Eagles will start rookie QB Nick Foles on Sunday in place of the injured Michael Vick, who suffered a serious concussion last week. The Redskins offense is averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt this season.
—RJ’s Pick: Washington by 1
Tampa Bay 5-4 @ Carolina 2-7 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: BUCCANEERS BY 2)
The Buccaneers have won three straight. Panthers WR Steve Smith leads the team in receiving yards, but has just one touchdown catch through nine games this season.
—RJ’s Pick: Tampa Bay by 6
RJ’s Mismatch Of The Week: Jacksonville 1-8 @ Houston 8-1 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: HOUSTON BY 14.5)
The Jaguars are just plain bad on both sides of the ball. RB Rashad Jennings is averaging just three yards per carry this season, on 74 attempts. Texans RB Arian Foster has two touchdown catches this season to go along with his 10 rushing TDs.
—RJ’s Pick: Houston by 28
New York Jets 3-6 @ St. Louis 3-5-1 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: ST. LOUIS BY 3.5)
The Jets have scored a combined 16 points – and just one offensive touchdown – since Week Seven. The Rams battled the 49ers to a rare tie last week in Candlestick.
—RJ’s Pick: St. Louis by 9
New Orleans 4-5 @ Oakland 3-6 at 4:05 p.m. (Line: SAINTS BY 5)
The Saints have won their last two games and are still in the playoff hunt after an awful 0-4 start to the season. The Raiders have allowed a combined 97 points over their last two games. Expect Drew Brees to throw for a minimum of three TDs and 300 yards this week.
—RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 11
San Diego 4-5 @ Denver 6-3 at 4:25 p.m. (Line: DENVER BY 7)
The Chargers need to win this matchup to have any shot at winning the AFC West, which is probably their only hope of making the playoffs. The Broncos have won four in a row and have not scored fewer than 31 points in a game since Week Five.
—RJ’s Pick: Denver by 4
Indianapolis 6-3 @ New England 6-3 at 4:25 p.m. (Line: NEW ENGLAND BY 8)
Colts QB Andrew Luck has thrown for fewer than 220 yards just once this season. Patriots DE Rob Ninkovich has 31 tackles, five sacks, and four forced fumbles so far this year. This should be a high-scoring affair, and a fun game to watch.
—RJ’s Pick: New England by 13
Baltimore 7-2 @ Pittsburgh 6-3 at 8:20 p.m. (Line: RAVENS BY 3.5)
The Ravens have a +9 turnover ratio this season, but are losing the time of possession battle by more than six minutes per game. The Steelers will be starting Byron Leftwich under center this week due to Ben Roethlisberger’s sprained shoulder. Nevertheless, I gotta go with the home team when they are 4-0 at home this season and the away team is just 2-2 on the road.
—RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 3
*Monday, November 19*
Chicago 7-2 @ San Francisco 6-2-1 at 8:30 p.m. (Line: SAN FRANCISCO BY 5)
Bears QB Jay Cutler suffered a concussion last week, and it is unknown at this time whether or not he will play. Veteran Jason Campbell is his backup. 49ers QB Alex Smith also suffered a concussion last week, but he looks likely to start. I think the home team will win in a low-scoring game regardless of who starts under center for the Bears.
—RJ’s Pick: San Francisco by 1
[Bye Week Teams: Tennessee 4-6, Minnesota 6-4, New York Giants 6-4, Seattle 6-4]
If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.