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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2012 Edition: Week Eleven

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I went 8-6 straight up last week, and 6-8 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 92-54 straight up and 66-75-5 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.com.

What follows are my picks for the NFL’s Week 11:

*Thursday, November 15*

Miami 4-5 @ Buffalo 3-6 at 8:20 p.m. (Line: BUFFALO BY 2.5)

The Dolphins have lost their last two games. The Bills have dropped three straight. It’s going to be cold in Orchard Park on Thursday night, giving the home team the advantage over their warm weather opponent.

—RJ’s Pick: Buffalo by 7

*Sunday, November 18*

Green Bay 6-3 @ Detroit 4-5 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: PACKERS BY 3.5)

Packers LB Clay Matthews is out of the lineup this week with a hamstring injury. The Lions are the only team in the NFC North with a losing record, but they are 2-1 at home this season.

—RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 2

Arizona 4-5 @ Atlanta 8-1 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: ATLANTA BY 9)

The Cardinals have lost five in a row. The Falcons suffered their first loss of the season last week, but they remain undefeated at home.

—RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 14

Cleveland 2-7 @ Dallas 4-5 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: DALLAS BY 7)

The Browns may have won just two games so far this season, but they’ve only lost one game by more than 10 points. The Cowboys play their next three games at home, all against teams with losing records.

—RJ’s Pick: Dallas by 3

Cincinnati 4-5 @ Kansas City 1-8 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: BENGALS BY 3.5)

The Bengals offense is averaging just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt this season. The Chiefs are winless at Arrowhead so far this season.

—RJ’s Pick: Cincinnati by 8

Philadelphia 3-6 @ Washington 3-6 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: WASHINGTON BY 3.5)

The Eagles will start rookie QB Nick Foles on Sunday in place of the injured Michael Vick, who suffered a serious concussion last week. The Redskins offense is averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt this season.

—RJ’s Pick: Washington by 1

Tampa Bay 5-4 @ Carolina 2-7 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: BUCCANEERS BY 2)

The Buccaneers have won three straight. Panthers WR Steve Smith leads the team in receiving yards, but has just one touchdown catch through nine games this season.

—RJ’s Pick: Tampa Bay by 6

RJ’s Mismatch Of The Week: Jacksonville 1-8 @ Houston 8-1 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: HOUSTON BY 14.5)

The Jaguars are just plain bad on both sides of the ball. RB Rashad Jennings is averaging just three yards per carry this season, on 74 attempts. Texans RB Arian Foster has two touchdown catches this season to go along with his 10 rushing TDs.

—RJ’s Pick: Houston by 28

New York Jets 3-6 @ St. Louis 3-5-1 at 1:00 p.m. (Line: ST. LOUIS BY 3.5)

The Jets have scored a combined 16 points – and just one offensive touchdown – since Week Seven. The Rams battled the 49ers to a rare tie last week in Candlestick.

—RJ’s Pick: St. Louis by 9

New Orleans 4-5 @ Oakland 3-6 at 4:05 p.m. (Line: SAINTS BY 5)

The Saints have won their last two games and are still in the playoff hunt after an awful 0-4 start to the season. The Raiders have allowed a combined 97 points over their last two games. Expect Drew Brees to throw for a minimum of three TDs and 300 yards this week.

—RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 11

San Diego 4-5 @ Denver 6-3 at 4:25 p.m. (Line: DENVER BY 7)

The Chargers need to win this matchup to have any shot at winning the AFC West, which is probably their only hope of making the playoffs. The Broncos have won four in a row and have not scored fewer than 31 points in a game since Week Five.

—RJ’s Pick: Denver by 4

Indianapolis 6-3 @ New England 6-3 at 4:25 p.m. (Line: NEW ENGLAND BY 8)

Colts QB Andrew Luck has thrown for fewer than 220 yards just once this season. Patriots DE Rob Ninkovich has 31 tackles, five sacks, and four forced fumbles so far this year. This should be a high-scoring affair, and a fun game to watch.

—RJ’s Pick: New England by 13

Baltimore 7-2 @ Pittsburgh 6-3 at 8:20 p.m. (Line: RAVENS BY 3.5)

The Ravens have a +9 turnover ratio this season, but are losing the time of possession battle by more than six minutes per game. The Steelers will be starting Byron Leftwich under center this week due to Ben Roethlisberger’s sprained shoulder. Nevertheless, I gotta go with the home team when they are 4-0 at home this season and the away team is just 2-2 on the road.

—RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 3

*Monday, November 19*

Chicago 7-2 @ San Francisco 6-2-1 at 8:30 p.m. (Line: SAN FRANCISCO BY 5)

Bears QB Jay Cutler suffered a concussion last week, and it is unknown at this time whether or not he will play. Veteran Jason Campbell is his backup. 49ers QB Alex Smith also suffered a concussion last week, but he looks likely to start. I think the home team will win in a low-scoring game regardless of who starts under center for the Bears.

—RJ’s Pick: San Francisco by 1

[Bye Week Teams: Tennessee 4-6, Minnesota 6-4, New York Giants 6-4, Seattle 6-4]

If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.

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About RJ

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORE:

    BILLS 19, MIAMI 14 – RJ 1-0 (1-0 ATS)

  • C2E

    Good analysis. I’m at 94-52 so far this season (straight up), but may fall this week due to some underdog picks.

    Bills over Dolphins
    Packers over Lions
    Falcons over Cardinals
    Buccaneers over Panthers
    Cowboys over Browns
    Eagles over Redskins
    Rams over Jets
    Chiefs over Bengals
    Texans over Jaguars
    Saints over Raiders
    Broncos over Chargers
    Patriots over Colts
    Ravens over Steelers
    Bears over 49ers

    (Picked the Bears when I thought Alex Smith was going to be out…)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Looks like Cutler is out instead…

  • C2E

    Yeah. I’m screwed on that pick with Jason Campbell playing…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    GB 24, LIONS 20 – RJ 1-1 (1-1 ATS)

    ATLANTA 23, ARIZONA 19 – RJ 2-1 (1-2 ATS)

    DALLAS 23, BROWNS 20 (IN OT) – RJ 3-1 (2-2 ATS…AND I NAILED THE SPREAD)

    BENGALS 28, KC 6 – RJ 4-1 (3-2 ATS)

    REDSKINS 31, EAGLES 6 – RJ 5-1 (3-3 ATS)

    TB 27, CAROLINA 21 (IN OT) – RJ 6-1 (4-3 ATS…AND I NAILED THE SPREAD AGAIN)

    HOUSTON 43, JACKSONVILLE 37 (IN OT) – RJ 7-1 (4-4 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    JETS 27, RAMS 13 – RJ 7-2 (4-5 ATS)

    NO 38, OAKLAND 17 – RJ 8-2 (5-5 ATS)

    DENVER 30, SD 23 – RJ 9-2 (5-5-1 ATS)

    NE 59, COLTS 24 – RJ 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Ravens 13, Steelers 10 – RJ 10-3 (7-5-1 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    SF 32, Bears 7 – RJ 11-3 (7-6-1 ATS)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through 11 weeks:

    103-57 straight up

    73-81-6 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s experts in Week Eleven:

    Allen
    11-3
    Golic
    13-1
    Hoge
    12-2
    Jaworski
    13-1
    Mortensen
    12-2
    Schefter
    10-4
    Schlereth
    13-1
    Wickersham
    12-2
    Jackson
    12-2
    Johnson
    9-5
    Ditka
    11-3
    Carter
    13-1
    Accuscore
    14-0
    Pick ‘em
    13-1

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s experts through 11 weeks:

    Allen
    94-66
    Golic
    104-56
    Hoge
    104-56
    Jaworski
    105-55
    Mortensen
    114-46
    Schefter
    99-61
    Schlereth
    103-57
    Wickersham
    115-45
    Jackson
    96-64
    Johnson
    95-65
    Ditka
    98-62
    Carter
    104-56
    Accuscore
    104-56
    Pick ‘em
    105-54