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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2011 Edition: Week 17

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I went 9-7 last week straight-up, and 6-10 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 158-82 straight-up, and 121-112-7 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the NFL “experts” over at ESPN.

What follows are my picks for the NFL’s Week 17 games. (Note: I will be making all of my picks for the NFL playoffs in the comments section of this article.)

*SUNDAY, JANUARY 1ST, 2012*

Carolina 6-9 at New Orleans 12-3 1:00 [Line: Saints by 9]

The Saints need a win and a San Francisco loss in order to clinch the 2nd seed (and a first round bye) in the NFC playoffs. Panthers QB Cam Newton looks likely to win the Offensive Rookie Of The Year Award.

—RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 15

Buffalo 6-9 at New England 12-3 1:00 [Line: Patriots by 11.5]

The Patriots can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win here. The Bills are 1-6 on the road this season.

—RJ’s Pick: New England by 19

Chicago 7-8 at Minnesota 3-12 1:00 [Line: Bears by 1]

The Bears have dropped five straight but still have a shot at a .500 season. The Vikings are 0-5 against division rivals this season.

—RJ’s Pick: Minnesota by 4

New York Jets 8-7 at Miami 5-10 1:00 [Line: Dolphins by 1]

The Jets can still make the playoffs as a wild card with a win and losses by the Titans, the Bengals, and either the Broncos or the Raiders. The Dolphins have gone 5-3 since starting the season 0-7, and two of those three losses were in close games on the road against good teams.

—RJ’s Pick: Miami by 6

San Francisco 12-3 at St. Louis 2-13 1:00 [Line: 49ers by 10.5]

The 49ers will clinch the 2nd seed in the NFC with a win. The Rams will clinch the top pick in the NFL draft with a loss and an Indianapolis win.

—RJ’s Pick: San Francisco by 16

Detroit 10-5 at Green Bay 14-1 1:00 [Line: Lions by 3]

The Packers have already clinched the top seed in the NFC and will likely be resting a lot of starters. The Lions can clinch the 5th seed in the NFC with a win and would then travel to face either the Cowboys or the Giants in the first round.

—RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 8

 

Washington 5-10 at Philadelphia 7-8 1:00 [Line: Eagles by 9]

Redskins WR Jabar Gaffney needs just 81 more receiving yards to reach 1000 for the season. The Eagles are on a three game winning streak and can finish the season at .500 with a win here.

—RJ’s Pick: Philadelphia by 3

Indianapolis 2-13 at Jacksonville 4-11 1:00 [Line: Jaguars by 4]

The Colts can draft Andrew Luck with a loss. Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert has the lowest passer rating in the NFL (among players who have thrown at least 14 passes per game).

—RJ’s Pick: Indianapolis by 2

Tennessee 8-7 at Houston 10-5 1:00 [Line: Titans by 2.5]

The Texans are locked into the AFC’s 3rd seed regardless of the outcome of this game. The Titans need a win and a bunch of help in order to earn a wild card spot.

—RJ’s Pick: Tennessee by 7

Seattle 7-8 at Arizona 7-8 4:15 [Line: Cardinals by 3]

The Cardinals are 5-2 at home this season. The Seahawks have the NFL’s 5th ranked defense (in points allowed).

—RJ’s Pick: Arizona by 9

Kansas City 6-9 at Denver 8-7 4:15 [Line: Broncos by 3]

The Broncos will win the AFC West with a victory this week, and will then host either the Steelers or the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs. Chiefs QB Kyle Orton hopes to get revenge against the team that released him earlier this season.

—RJ’s Pick: Denver by 6

Tampa Bay 4-11 at Atlanta 9-6 4:15 [Line: Falcons by 13]

The Falcons have clinched a wild card spot in the NFC and can land the 5th seed with a win and a loss by Detroit. The Buccaneers are allowing nearly 30 points per game, worst in the league.

—RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 10

Baltimore 11-4 at Cincinnati 9-6 4:15 [Line: Ravens by 2.5]

The Ravens can clinch the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win and can clinch the top seed with a win and a New England loss. The Bengals can clinch the 6th seed in the AFC with a win.

—RJ’s Pick: Baltimore by 7

Pittsburgh 11-4 at Cleveland 4-11 4:15 [Line: Steelers by 7]

The Steelers can clinch the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win and a Baltimore loss, and can clinch the top seed with a win and a loss by both the Ravens and the Patriots. The Browns have not scored 20 points in a game since November.

—RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 14

San Diego 7-8 at Oakland 8-7 4:15 [Line: Raiders by 3]

The Raiders can win the AFC West with a victory and a Denver loss, and have a shot at a wild card spot with a win and a loss by both Cincinnati and Tennessee, or a win and a loss by the Bengals and a win by the Jets. The Chargers have the best point differential in the AFC West, but will not be playing this postseason.

—RJ’s Pick: Chargers by 5

Dallas 8-7 at New York Giants 8-7 8:20 [Line: Giants by 3]

This one is rather simple: The winner of this game gets in as the 4th seed in the NFC, and the loser watches the playoffs on the couch. If there is a tie, the Giants would be the winners of the NFC East. The Cowboys have a plus-39 point differential, compared to the Giants at minus-23. The Giants are just 3-4 at home this season, while the Cowboys are 3-4 on the road. I believe the Cowboys are the better team, but I fully expect another epic Tony Romo choke job.

—RJ’s Pick: New York Giants by 1

(If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.)

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About RJ

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    (Posting for a friend…)

    HC’s picks:

    JETS
    PHILLY
    COLTS
    GB

    NE
    SF
    NO
    HOUSTON

    BEARS
    RAVENS
    DENVER
    STEELERS

    SEATTLE
    TB
    SD
    DALLAS

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    NO 45, Carolina 17 – RJ 1-0 [1-0 ATS]

    NE 49, Bills 21 – RJ 2-0 [2-0 ATS]

    Bears 17, Vikings 13 – RJ 2-1 [2-1 ATS]

    Miami 19, Jets 17 – RJ 3-1 [3-1 ATS]

    SF 34, Rams 27 – RJ 4-1 [3-2 ATS]

    GB 45, Lions 41 – RJ 4-2 [3-3 ATS]

    Eagles 34, Redskins 10 – RJ 5-2 [3-4 ATS]

    Jaguars 19, Colts 13 – RJ 5-3 [3-5 ATS]

    Titans 23, Houston 22 – RJ 6-3 [3-6 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    KC 7, DENVER 3 – RJ 6-4 [3-7 ATS]

    ATLANTA 45, TB 24 – RJ 7-4 [3-8 ATS]

    RAVENS 24, BENGALS 16 – RJ 8-4 [4-8 ATS]

    STEELERS 13, BROWNS 9 – RJ 9-4 [4-9 ATS]

    SD 38, RAIDERS 26 – RJ 10-4 [5-9 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORE:

    ARIZONA 23, SEATTLE 20 (in OT) – RJ 11-4 [5-9-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORE:

    GIANTS 31, DALLAS 14 – RJ 12-4 [5-10-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ’s final regular season standings:

    170-86 straight-up

    126-122-8 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    HC in Week 17:

    9-7

    HC for the season (weeks 16 and 17):

    21-11

    RJ in weeks 16 and 17:

    21-11

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week 17:

    Allen
    12-4
    Golic
    7-9
    Hoge
    10-6
    Jaworski
    9-7
    Mortensen
    7-9
    Schefter
    8-8
    Schlereth
    10-6
    Wickersham
    10-6
    Accuscore
    13-3
    Pick ‘em
    11-5

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through the entire regular season:

    Allen
    165-89
    Golic
    161-95
    Hoge
    162-93
    Jaworski
    155-85
    Mortensen
    155-101
    Schefter
    158-98
    Schlereth
    167-89
    Wickersham
    167-89
    Accuscore
    174-82
    Pick ‘em
    172-84

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final regular season winning percentages:

    Mortensen 155-101 60.5%
    Schefter 158-98 61.7%
    Golic 161-95 62.9%
    Hoge 162-93 63.5%
    Jaworski 155-85 64.6%
    Allen 165-89 65.0%
    Schlereth 167-89 65.2%
    Wickersham 167-89 65.2%
    RJ 170-86 66.4%
    Pick ‘em 172-84 67.2%
    Accuscore 174-82 68.0%

    (That’s right, ladies and gentlemen. I beat every other *human* at ESPN this season. Every single self-described “expert” had a lower winning percentage than some idiot blogger from Florida who never even played high school football. Happy New Year!)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ’s NFL Picks, Wild Card Round:

    *SATURDAY, JANUARY 7TH*

    Cincinnati 9-7 at Houston 10-6 4:30 PM [LINE: HOUSTON BY 3]

    HOUSTON HAS LOST 3 IN A ROW, AND ARE DEPENDING ON AN INJURED ROOKIE QB.

    RJ’S PICK: BENGALS BY 3

    Detroit 10-6 at New Orleans 13-3 8:00 PM [LINE: SAINTS BY 10.5]

    NO RATIONAL PERSON WOULD PICK THE LIONS TO WIN THIS ONE. THANKFULLY, I’M NOT RATIONAL.

    RJ’S PICK: LIONS BY 1

    *SUNDAY, JANUARY 8TH*

    Atlanta 10-6 at Giants 9-7 1:00 PM [LINE: GIANTS BY 3]

    THE FALCONS ARE SIMPLY THE BETTER TEAM.

    RJ’S PICK: ATLANTA BY 4

    Pittsburgh 12-4 at Denver 8-8 4:30 PM [LINE: STEELERS BY 8]

    THIS WILL BE A LOW SCORING GAME. AND A LOW SCORING GAME MEANS A CLOSE GAME. I EXPECT TIM TEBOW TO WIN IT IN THE END, BUILDING UPON HIS LEGEND.

    RJ’S PICK: DENVER BY 2

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    (Posting for a friend)

    HC’s Picks:

    Bengals over Texans, Saints over Lions, Falcons over Giants, Steelers over Broncos.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Houston 31, Bengals 10 – RJ 0-1 [0-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    NO 45, Lions 28 – RJ 0-2 [0-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Giants 24, Atlanta 2 – RJ 0-3 [0-3 ATS]

    Denver 29, Steelers 23 (in OT) – RJ 1-3 [1-3 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in the Wild Card Round:

    Allen
    2-2
    Golic
    2-2
    Hoge
    2-2
    Jaworski
    2-2
    Mortensen
    1-3
    Schefter
    2-2
    Schlereth
    2-2
    Wickersham
    1-3
    Accuscore
    3-1
    SportsNation
    2-2

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    “HC” in the Wild Card Round:

    1-3

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    *Divisional Round*

    SATURDAY, JANUARY 14

    New Orleans at San Francisco 4:30 PM [Saints by 3.5]

    I don’t think even San Francisco’s defense can stop the Saints.

    RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 8

    Denver at New England 8:00 PM [Patriots by 13.5]

    I expect a lot of scoring and a lot of lead changes in this one.

    RJ’s Pick: Denver by 3

    SUNDAY, JANUARY 15

    Houston at Baltimore 1:00 PM [Ravens by 7.5]

    The Ravens are pretty much unbeatable at home, but Houston should keep it close.

    RJ’s Pick: Ravens by 2

    New York Giants at Green Bay 4:30 PM [Packers by 8.5]

    It will probably be another close one between these two teams.

    RJ’s Pick: Packers by 4

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    HC’s picks:

    GB, NO, NE, Texans

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    NE 45, Denver 10 – RJ 0-1 [0-1 ATS]

    SF 36, NO 32 – RJ 0-1 [0-2 ATS]

    Ravens 20, Houston 13 – RJ 1-2 [1-2 ATS]

    Giants 37, Packers 20 – RJ 1-3 [2-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ so far in the playoffs:

    2-6 straight up

    3-5 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in the Divisional Round:

    Allen
    1-3
    Golic
    2-2
    Hoge
    4-0
    Jaworski
    2-2
    Mortensen
    4-0
    Schefter
    3-1
    Schlereth
    2-2
    Wickersham
    4-0
    Accuscore
    2-2
    SportsNation
    2-2

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” so far in the postseason:

    Allen
    3-5
    Golic
    4-4
    Hoge
    6-2
    Jaworski
    4-4
    Mortensen
    6-2
    Schefter
    5-3
    Schlereth
    5-3
    Wickersham
    5-3
    Accuscore
    5-3
    SportsNation
    4-4

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    HC’s playoff record:

    Divisional Round: 1-3

    Postseason so far: 2-6

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ***SUNDAY, JANUARY 22ND***

    AFC Championship Game:

    Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – 3:00 PM [LINE: PATS BY 7.5]

    The Patriots destroyed Denver last week, and they have not lost a game since Week Nine against…the New York Giants. The Ravens edged Houston last week to advance, but is Joe Flacco any match for Tom Brady?

    RJ’S PICK: NEW ENGLAND BY 13

    NFC Championship Game:

    New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers – 6:30 PM [LINE: SAN FRAN BY 2.5]

    The 49ers were quite lucky to beat New Orleans last week. The Giants dominated the 15-1 Packers on the road.

    RJ’S PICK: GIANTS BY 4

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    HC’s picks:

    Giants and Patriots.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    NE 23, RAVENS 20 – RJ 1-0 [0-1 ATS]

    GIANTS 20, SF 17 – RJ 2-0 [1-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    HC – 2-0

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ IN THE PLAYOFFS:

    4-6 STRAIGHT UP
    4-6 AGAINST THE SPREAD

    HC IN THE PLAYOFFS:

    4-6

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’S NFL “EXPERTS” THIS WEEK:

    Allen
    2-0
    Golic
    1-1
    Hoge
    2-0
    Jaworski
    2-0
    Mortensen
    2-0
    Schefter
    2-0
    Schlereth
    2-0
    Wickersham
    0-2
    Accuscore
    1-1
    SportsNation
    1-1

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’S NFL “EXPERTS” IN THE PLAYOFFS:

    Allen
    5-5
    Golic
    5-5
    Hoge
    8-2
    Jaworski
    6-4
    Mortensen
    8-2
    Schefter
    7-3
    Schlereth
    7-3
    Wickersham
    5-5
    Accuscore
    6-4
    SportsNation
    5-5

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ’s Super Bowl 46 Pick:

    *Sunday, February 5th, 2012*

    New York Giants vs. New England Patriots – 6:20 pm [Line: Patriots by 3]

    A rematch of Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning has proven himself to be an elite QB this season, but he’s still no Tom Brady. Expect Chad Ochocinco to get a deep pass or two thrown his way, and expect Wes Welker to catch at least ten passes for 100 yards.

    RJ’s Pick: New England by 7

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    HC’s Super Bowl pick:

    New England

  • Igor

    Maybe someday we’ll be rid of this football curse that leaves so many of it’s participants dead or brain damaged.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Giants 21, Patriots 17 – RJ 0-1 [0-1 ATS]

    HC 0-1

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ IN THE PLAYOFFS:

    4-7 STRAIGHT UP
    4-7 AGAINST THE SPREAD

    HC IN THE PLAYOFFS:

    4-7

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” picking the Super Bowl:

    Allen
    1-0
    Golic
    1-0
    Hoge
    1-0
    Jaworski
    1-0
    Mortensen
    1-0
    Schefter
    0-1
    Schlereth
    0-1
    Wickersham
    1-0
    Accuscore
    0-1
    SportsNation
    0-0 (no pick)

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in the playoffs:

    Allen
    6-5
    Golic
    6-5
    Hoge
    9-2
    Jaworski
    7-4
    Mortensen
    9-2
    Schefter
    7-4
    Schlereth
    7-4
    Wickersham
    6-5
    Accuscore
    6-5
    SportsNation
    5-5

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    That’s it. I’m done until next season. :)