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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2011 Edition: Week 13

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I went 14-2 last week straight-up, and 11-5 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 116-60 straight-up, and 91-79-6 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week 13 games:

*THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1*

Philadelphia 4-7 at Seattle 4-7 – 8:20 P.M. [Line: Eagles by 2.5]

The Seahawks looked to be on the way to their third consecutive victory last week before imploding in the fourth quarter against the Redskins. Meanwhile, Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and defensive line coach Jim Washburn got into a physical altercation on the sideline last week during their team’s blowout loss to the Patriots.

–RJ’s Pick: Seattle by 4

*SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4*

Carolina 3-8 at Tampa Bay 4-7 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Buccaneers by 3.5]

The Buccaneers have dropped five straight. The Panthers held an opponent under 20 points for the first time since Week Three in their 27-19 win over the Colts last Sunday.

–RJ’s Pick: Carolina by 3

Cincinnati 7-4 at Pittsburgh 8-3 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Steelers by 7]

The Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincinnati 24-17 back in Week 10.

–RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 2

Atlanta 7-4 at Houston 8-3 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Falcons by 2.5]

The Falcons have not lost a game in regulation since losing to the undefeated Packers in Week Five. The Texans will start rookie quarterback T.J. Yates this week, who replaces the injured Matt Leinart.

–RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 9

New York Jets 6-5 at Washington 4-7 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Jets by 3]

The Jets are 1-4 on the road this season. Redskins rookie RB Roy Helu is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

–RJ’s Pick: Washington by 5

Indianapolis 0-11 at New England 8-3 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Patriots by 20.5]

The winless Colts will start Dan Orlovsky under center this week, replacing the ineffective Curtis Painter. The Patriots have won three in a row, and they have allowed just 39 total points in those three victories.

–RJ’s Pick: New England by 35

Oakland 7-4 at Miami 3-8 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Dolphins by 2.5]

The Raiders have won three straight games, and are 4-1 on the road this season. Dolphins QB Matt Moore has thrown just one interception in his last four games, while tossing seven touchdown passes.

–RJ’s Pick: Miami by 7

Denver 6-5 at Minnesota 2-9 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Vikings by 1]

The Broncos are the only team in the league that averages more rushing yards per game than passing yards. The Vikings have lost three in a row.

–RJ’s Pick: Denver by 8

Tennessee 6-5 at Buffalo 5-6 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Bills by 1.5]

Titans RB Chris Johnson ran for 190 yards last week against the Buccaneers. The Bills have dropped four straight.

–RJ’s Pick: Tennessee by 6

Kansas City 4-7 at Chicago 7-4 – 1:00 P.M. [Line: Bears by 8]

The Chiefs will likely play new addition Kyle Orton at QB, although it’s possible Tyler Palko and his 47.5 passer rating will get another start. The Bears are 5-1 at home this season.

–RJ’s Pick: Chicago by 1

Baltimore 8-3 at Cleveland 4-7 – 4:05 P.M. [Line: Ravens by 6.5]

The Browns have scored just 16 touchdowns all season, only three of which were rushing TDs. The Ravens have the NFL’s third ranked defense.

–RJ’s Pick: Baltimore by 13

Dallas 7-4 at Arizona 4-7 – 4:15 P.M. [Line: Cowboys by 4.5]

The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFC right now (not counting the unbeaten Packers, of course). Cardinals running back Beanie Wells rushed for 228 yards last week.

–RJ’s Pick: Dallas by 10

Green Bay 11-0 at New York Giants 6-5 – 4:15 P.M. [Line: Packers by 7]

The Packers, who are still perfect going into Week 13, have a point differential of +155, by far the best in the league. The Giants have lost three in a row.

–RJ’s Pick: Green Bay by 18

St. Louis 2-9 at San Francisco 9-2 – 4:15 P.M. [Line: 49ers by 13]

The 49ers have allowed just 161 points in 11 games, fewest in the NFL. The Rams have scored just 140 points in 11 games, fewest in the NFC.

–RJ’s Pick: San Francisco by 9

Detroit 7-4 at New Orleans 8-3 – 8:20 P.M. [Line: Saints by 9]

The Lions have dropped four of their last six, and star DT Ndamukong Suh has just been suspended for two games. The Saints are 5-0 at home, and have the league’s top rated passing attack.

–RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 3

*MONDAY, DECEMBER 5*

San Diego 4-7 at Jacksonville 3-8 – 8:30 P.M. [Line: Chargers by 2.5]

The Chargers have lost six straight, the longest current losing streak in the NFL (not counting the winless Colts, of course). Longtime Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio was just fired; defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has been named the team’s interim head coach.

–RJ’s Pick: San Diego by 1

(If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.)

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About RJ

  • Steve

    New England by 35! Wow! It’s pretty uncommon to see a line +20 points for a team but Indy is terrible.

  • http://blogcritics.org/writers/dr-dreadful/ Dr Dreadful

    At this point, the Chargers would still manage to lose to them.

  • http://blogcritics.org/writers/toddt/ Todd Thompson

    I think you’re right on Seattle and Phillie. Detroit beating N.O. at home stretches my imagination too far. Bold pick.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Seattle 31, Eagles 14 – RJ 1-0 [1-0 ATS]

  • C2E

    Well, I’m 120-56 Straight Up through Week 12. This week, we differ on several matchups:

    Eagles-Seahawks: Obviously, I missed this one! Eagles are done. Shoulda listed to JJ when he said it was time to stick a fork in them.

    Panthers-Bucs: Here, I just went with the home team. CN is impressive, but team needs to chalk up a few more Ws.

    Falcons-Texans: Can the Texans deal with much more adversity? What brought on this kind of Karma?
    Actually, Yates is like Schaub but more athletic. Still, he was drafted as a project. I don’t think he can be worse than Leinart, but can he be at least as good as Schaub? Can he get timing down with receivers in a week? Probably not, but maybe he can get lucky. Texans by 3.

    Jets-Redskins: Both teams are not good. Helu is doing well. Here, I just think it’s time for the Jets to win another road game. Jets by a missed Washington field goal.

    Raiders-Dolphins: Dolphins have played well recently. Raiders will have jet lag and begin drinking early that day. Nothing like that initial buzz to get you going…

    Titans-Bills: I’m not a fan of either team, but the Bills will take this one. Both play inconsistently, so the Titans should slip and the Bills get it together this Sunday.

    Won’t comment on the Lions pick…I seem to remember you always picked them, regardless.

    Good luck this week! Still enjoy your column, even when I can’t get my picks listed in time.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Thanks for your continued readership, C2E.

  • Arch Conservative

    Indy may win a game this year but it won’t be against the Patriots in New England. The Colts seem content to piss away the rest of the season say goodbye to Peyton and hello to Andrew Luck.

  • C2E

    So far, looks like I should have read your column BEFORE I made my picks!

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Carolina 38, TB 19 – RJ 2-0 [2-0 ATS]

    Steelers 35, Bengals 7 – RJ 3-0 [2-1 ATS]

    Houston 17, Atlanta 10 – RJ 3-1 [2-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Jets 34, Washington 19 – RJ 3-2 [2-3 ATS]

    NE 31, Colts 24 – RJ 4-2 [2-4 ATS]

    Miami 34, Oakland 14 – RJ 5-2 [3-4 ATS]

    Denver 35, Vikings 32 – RJ 6-2 [4-4 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Titans 23, Bills 17 – RJ 7-2 [5-4 ATS] (and I nailed the spread!)

    KC 10, Bears 3 – RJ 7-3 [6-4 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Ravens 24, Browns 10 – RJ 8-3 [7-4 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    SF 26, Rams 0 – RJ 9-3 [7-5 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Arizona 19, Dallas 13 (in OT) – RJ 9-4 [7-6 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    GB 38, Giants 35 – RJ 10-4 [7-7 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    NO 31, Lions 17 – RJ 10-5 [7-8 ATS]

  • http://theinternetfever.blogspot.com Tariq Rashid

    nice it is

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    SD 38, Jaguars 14 – RJ 11-5 [7-9 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week 13:

    Allen
    8-8
    Golic
    9-7
    Hoge
    9-7
    Jaworski
    7-8
    Mortensen
    9-7
    Schefter
    9-7
    Schlereth
    10-6
    Wickersham
    8-8
    Accuscore
    10-6
    Pick ‘em
    9-7

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through thirteen weeks:

    Allen
    125-66
    Golic
    124-68
    Hoge
    123-68
    Jaworski
    119-60
    Mortensen
    116-76
    Schefter
    117-75
    Schlereth
    128-64
    Wickersham
    125-67
    Accuscore
    133-59
    Pick ‘em
    131-61

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through thirteen weeks:

    127-65 straight-up

    98-88-6 against the spread