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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2011 Edition: Week 12

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I went 11-3 last week straight-up, and 7-6-1 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 102-58 straight-up, and 80-74-6 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week 12 games:

*THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24*

Green Bay 10-0 at Detroit 7-3 12:30 P.M. [Line: Packers by 6]

Detroit suddenly has a running game, and his name is Kevin Smith. This is probably the toughest game left on unbeaten Green Bay’s schedule, on the road against a division rival with a good record, and in a short week.

–RJ’s Pick: Lions by 3

Miami 3-7 at Dallas 6-4 4:15 P.M. [Line: Cowboys by 7]

Miami has won three straight after demolishing Buffalo last week, 35-8. It did not allow a single touchdown in any of those three games. Dallas has also won three in a row, and is now tied for first place in the NFC East.

–RJ’s Pick: Cowboys by 2

San Francisco 9-1 at Baltimore 7-3 8:20 P.M. [Line: Ravens by 3]

San Francisco has not lost a game since Week Two. It has a five-game lead over second place Seattle in the NFC West. Baltimore is 5-0 at home this season.

–RJ’s Pick: Ravens by 7

*SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27*

Houston 7-3 at Jacksonville 3-7 1:00 P.M. [Line: Texans by 3]

With Matt Schaub likely out for the rest of the season with an injured foot, Matt Leinart will be starting under center for Houston this week. Jacksonville is averaging just 12.5 points per game, but it has the NFL’s third best ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game.

–RJ’s Pick: Texans by 8

Buffalo 5-5 at New York Jets 5-5 1:00 P.M. [Line: Jets by 8]

The Bills have lost three in a row, and would likely see their playoff hopes suffer a fatal blow with another loss this week. The Jets have also struggled of late, and desperately need a win here to have a realistic shot of playing in the postseason. The Jets are 4-1 at home, while the Bills are just 1-4 on the road.

–RJ’s Pick: Jets by 13

Cleveland 4-6 at Cincinnati 6-4 1:00 P.M. [Line: Bengals by 7.5]

Cleveland has the league’s top pass defense. Cincinnati has lost two straight.

–RJ’s Pick: Bengals by 4

Minnesota 2-8 at Atlanta 6-4 1:00 P.M. [Line: Falcons by 9.5]

Atlanta has a balanced offense and an excellent run defense. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson suffered a serious high ankle sprain last week and may not be able to play for a while.

–RJ’s Pick: Falcons by 15

Arizona 3-7 at St. Louis 2-8 1:00 P.M. [Line: Rams by 3]

RB Beanie Wells is the only Cardinals player with more than 100 yards rushing this season. The Rams have a point differential of minus-127, worst in the NFC.

–RJ’s Pick: Cardinals by 5

Carolina 2-8 at Indianapolis 0-10 1:00 P.M. [Line: Panthers by 3.5]

The Panthers have allowed the second most points in the NFL. The winless Colts have not scored more than ten points in a game since Week Six.

–RJ’s Pick: Panthers by 11

Tampa Bay 4-6 at Tennessee 5-5 1:00 P.M. [Line: Titans by 3.5]

Tampa Bay has lost four in a row. Tennessee RB Chris Johnson had 12 carries for just 13 yards last week.

–RJ’s Pick: Titans by 9

Chicago 7-3 at Oakland 6-4 4:05 P.M. [Line: Raiders by 3.5]

Bears QB Jay Cutler broke his thumb last week and is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season. Caleb Hanie will make his first career start in place of Cutler. The Raiders have won their last two, and sit alone atop the AFC West.

–RJ’s Pick: Raiders by 10

Washington 3-7 at Seattle 4-6 4:05 P.M. [Line: Seahawks by 4]

Washington has lost six straight. Seattle has won two in a row.

–RJ’s Pick: Seahawks by 8

Denver 5-5 at San Diego 4-6 4:15 P.M. [Line: Chargers by 6.5]

Broncos QB Tim Tebow is 4-1 as a starter this season despite failing to complete 50% of his passes in any of his starts. The Chargers have lost five in a row and have not held an opponent to fewer than 23 points in a game since Week Four.

–RJ’s Pick: Broncos by 3

New England 7-3 at Philadelphia 4-6 4:15 P.M. [Line: Patriots by 3]

Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has 1,019 rushing yards through ten games, best in the NFL. The Patriots have the NFL’s worst overall defense in terms of yardage allowed, but are ranked 10th in the league in points allowed.

–RJ’s Pick: Patriots by 12

Pittsburgh 7-3 at Kansas City 4-6 8:20 P.M. [Line: Steelers by 10.5]

The Steelers are one of only three teams in the league that have converted over 50% of the time on third down. The Chiefs have scored a total of just 16 points in their last three games.

–RJ’s Pick: Steelers by 25

*MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28*

New York Giants 6-4 at New Orleans 7-3 8:30 P.M. [Line: Saints by 6.5]

The Giants have dropped two straight, and have allowed as many points this season as they’ve scored. The Saints are 4-0 at home and have a +85-point differential.

–RJ’s Pick: Saints by 3

(If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.)

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About RJ

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    GB 27, Detroit 15 – RJ 0-1 [0-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Dallas 20, Miami 19 – RJ 1-1 [1-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Ravens 16, SF 6 – RJ 2-1 [2-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Houston 20, Jaguars 13 – RJ 3-1 [3-1 ATS]

    Jets 28, Bills 24 – RJ 4-1 [3-2 ATS]

    Bengals 23, Browns 20 – RJ 5-1 [4-2 ATS]

    Falcons 24, Vikings 14 – RJ 6-1 [5-2 ATS]

    Arizona 23, Rams 20 – RJ 7-1 [6-2 ATS]

    Carolina 27, Colts 19 – RJ 8-1 [7-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Titans 23, TB 17 – RJ 9-1 [8-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Raiders 25, Bears 20 – RJ 10-1 [9-2 ATS]

    Redskins 23, Seattle 17 – RJ 10-2 [9-3 ATS]

    Denver 16, SD 13 (in OT) – RJ 11-2 [10-3 ATS] (and I nailed the spread…)

    NE 38, Eagles 20 – RJ 12-2 [11-3 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Steelers 13, KC 9 – RJ 13-2 [11-4 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    NO 49, Giants 24 – RJ 14-2 [11-5 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week 12:

    Allen
    11-4
    Golic
    10-6
    Hoge
    11-4
    Jaworski
    10-5
    Mortensen
    13-3
    Schefter
    13-3
    Schlereth
    14-2
    Wickersham
    11-5
    Accuscore
    12-4
    Pick ’em
    13-3

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through twelve weeks:

    Allen
    117-58
    Golic
    115-61
    Hoge
    114-61
    Jaworski
    112-52
    Mortensen
    107-69
    Schefter
    108-68
    Schlereth
    118-58
    Wickersham
    117-59
    Accuscore
    123-53
    Pick ’em
    122-54

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through twelve weeks:

    116-60 straight-up

    91-79-6 against the spread