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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2011 Edition: Week 11

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I went 7-9 last week straight-up, and 8-8 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 91-55 straight-up, and 73-68-5 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week 11 games:

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17

Jets 5-4 at Broncos 4-5 8:20 PM [Line: Jets by 6.5]

Tim Tebow for MVP.

–RJ’s Pick: Denver by 1**

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20

Tampa Bay 4-5 at Green Bay 9-0 1:00 PM [Line: Packers by 14]

The Battle Of The Bays isn’t going to be much of a fight.

–RJ’s Pick: Green Bay by 20

Carolina 2-7 at Detroit 6-3 1:00 PM [Line: Lions by 7]

The Lions have lost three of their last four. Another loss this week would pretty much end their playoff hopes. But they should be able to handle the Panthers at Ford Field.

–RJ’s Pick: Lions by 11

Jacksonville 3-6 at Cleveland 3-6 1:00 PM [Line: Browns by 1]

There won’t be much scoring in this one.

–RJ’s Pick: Browns by 6

Oakland 5-4 at Minnesota 2-7 1:00 PM [Line: Vikings by 1.5]

The Raiders are in first place in the AFC West despite their minus-25 point differential and all-around porous defense.

–RJ’s Pick: Raiders by 3

Buffalo 5-4 at Miami 2-7 1:00 PM [Line: Dolphins by 2]

The Dolphins have won two straight after starting the season 0-7. The Bills, on the other hand, have dropped three of their last four, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown eight interceptions over that span. But ignore everything I just wrote; the Bills are the better team and the Dolphins seem to have a home field disadvantage.

–RJ’s Pick: Bills by 5

Dallas 5-4 at Washington 3-6 1:00 PM [Line: Cowboys by 7]

It’s usually a close game when the Cowboys play the Redskins, regardless of records or standings.

–RJ’s Pick: Cowboys by 2

Cincinnati 6-3 at Baltimore 6-3 1:00 PM [Line: Ravens by 6.5]

The Ravens are undefeated at home and 2-0 against divisional opponents so far this season. The Bengals are 4-1 on the road and have the second best run defense in the league. The performance of Joe Flacco will determine the outcome.

–RJ’s Pick: Ravens by 3

Arizona 3-6 at San Francisco 8-1 4:05 PM [Line: 49ers by 10.5]

The Cardinals have won two straight, but the 49ers have won seven in a row.

–RJ’s Pick: 49ers by 6

Seattle 3-6 at St. Louis 2-7 4:05 PM [Line: Rams by 3]

The Rams have scored the fewest points in the NFL.

–RJ’s Pick: Seahawks by 4

Tennessee 5-4 at Atlanta 5-4 4:15 PM [Line: Falcons by 6]

Solid matchup between two teams with legitimate chances of earning a Wild Card spot.

–RJ’s Pick: Falcons by 1

San Diego 4-5 at Chicago 6-3 4:15 PM [Line: Bears by 3.5]

The Chargers have dropped four consecutive games after starting the season 4-1. The Bears have won four straight and are 4-1 at home. Both streaks will end this week.

–RJ’s Pick: Chargers by 2

Philadelphia 3-6 at New York Giants 6-3 8:20 PM [Line: Giants by 4.5]

Eli Manning this season: 17 TDs, 8 INTs, 97.0 passer rating. Michael Vick this season: 11 TDs, 11 INTs, 79.8 passer rating. So is it a good thing for the Eagles that Vince Young is starting this week? Probably not.

–RJ’s Pick: Giants by 10

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Kansas City 4-5 at New England 6-3 8:30 PM [Line: Patriots by 14.5]

The Chiefs have lost games by margins of 34, 45, and 28 this season. This should be another blowout. Tyler Palko will be making his first career start this week, replacing the injured Matt Cassel.

–RJ’s Pick: Patriots by 24

[Bye Week: Indianapolis 0-10, New Orleans 7-3, Pittsburgh 7-3, & Houston 7-3]

(If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.)

**Note: Although this article was published after Thursday night’s game, I did offer my prediction for the Jet-Broncos matchup on Wednesday night in the comments section of my Week 10 column.

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About RJ

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    Denver 17, Jets 13 – RJ 1-0 [1-0 ATS]

    GB 35, TB 26 – RJ 2-0 [1-1 ATS]

    Lions 49, Carolina 35 – RJ 3-0 [2-1 ATS]

    Browns 14, Jaguars 10 – RJ 4-0 [3-1 ATS]

    Raiders 27, Vikings 21 – RJ 5-0 [4-1 ATS]

    Miami 35, Bills 8 – RJ 5-1 [4-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    Dallas 27, Redskins 24 (in OT) – RJ 6-1 [5-2 ATS]

    Ravens 31, Bengals 24 – RJ 7-1 [5-3 ATS]

    SF 23, Arizona 7 – RJ 8-1 [5-4 ATS]

    Seattle 24, Rams 7 – RJ 9-1 [6-4 ATS]

    Bears 31, SD 20 – RJ 9-2 [6-5 ATS]

    Atlanta 23, Titans 17 – RJ 10-2 [6-5-1 ATS]

    Eagles 17, Giants 10 – RJ 10-3 [6-6-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    NE 34, KC 3 – RJ 11-3 [7-6-1 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week 11:

    Allen
    10-4
    Golic
    10-4
    Hoge
    10-4
    Jaworski
    10-3
    Mortensen
    10-4
    Schefter
    7-7
    Schlereth
    10-4
    Wickersham
    13-1
    Accuscore
    11-3
    Pick ‘em
    10-4

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through eleven weeks:

    Allen
    106-54
    Golic
    105-55
    Hoge
    103-57
    Jaworski
    102-47
    Mortensen
    94-66
    Schefter
    95-65
    Schlereth
    104-56
    Wickersham
    106-54
    Accuscore
    111-49
    Pick ‘em
    109-51

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through eleven weeks:

    102-58 straight-up

    80-74-6 against the spread