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RJ’s NFL Picks, 2011 Edition: Week 10

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I went 8-6 last week straight-up, and 8-6 against the spread as well. For the season, that puts me at 84-46 straight-up, and 65-60-5 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week 10 games:

Thursday, November 10

Oakland 4-4 at San Diego 4-4 8:20 PM [Line: Chargers by 7]

The winner of this game will be at least tied for the division lead in the AFC West. The Raiders are 2-1 on the road this season; the Chargers are 3-1 at home.

–RJ’s Pick: San Diego by 3

Sunday, November 13

Arizona 2-6 at Philadelphia 3-5 1:00 PM [Line: Eagles by 14]

Philadelphia has the top rushing game in the league, are ranked third in total yards per game, and have the best point differential in the NFC East, but are below .500 halfway through the season. The Eagles are just 1-3 at home this season; the Cardinals are winless on the road.

–RJ’s Pick: Philadelphia by 6

Tennessee 4-4 at Carolina 2-6 1:00 PM [Line: Panthers by 3.5]

Titans RB Chris Johnson had arguably his best game of the season last week. Panthers rookie QB Cam Newton has had a triple digit passer rating the past two weeks.

–RJ’s Pick: Tennessee by 2

Houston 6-3 at Tampa Bay 4-4 1:00 PM [Line: Texans by 3]

The Texans have won three straight. Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has just eight TD passes through eight games, but has thrown 10 interceptions.

–RJ’s Pick: Houston by 7

Washington 3-5 at Miami 1-7 1:00 PM [Line: Dolphins by 3.5]

The Dolphins won their first game of the season last week, spanking the Chiefs in Kansas City 31-3. The Redskins have lost four in a row.

–RJ’s Pick: Washington by 1

Jacksonville 2-6 at Indianapolis 0-9 1:00 PM [Line: Jaguars by 3]

The Jaguars are the only NFL team that still hasn’t scored at least 100 points this season. The Colts have allowed 283 points this season, by far the most in the league.

–RJ’s Pick: Jacksonville by 10

Denver 3-5 at Kansas City 4-4 1:00 PM [Line: Chiefs by 3]

Broncos QB Tim Tebow threw two touchdown passes and ran for 118 yards with no fumbles and no interceptions in a win last week against the Raiders in Oakland. The Chiefs have been held to seven points or less three times already this season.

–RJ’s Pick: Denver by 3

Buffalo 5-3 at Dallas 4-4 1:00 PM [Line: Cowboys by 5.5]

The Cowboys are 3-1 at home this season; the Bills are just 1-2 on the road. Buffalo has overachieved so far this season, with an offense ranked 12th in yards but 4th in points, and a defense ranked 26th in yards allowed but 14th in points allowed.

–RJ’s Pick: Dallas by 1

New Orleans 6-3 at Atlanta 5-3 1:00 PM [Line: Pick ‘em]

The winner of this matchup will sit atop the NFC South. The Saints are just 2-3 on the road, but have the league’s fourth best point differential. The Falcons have won three in a row.

–RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 9

St. Louis 1-7 at Cleveland 3-5 1:00 PM [Line: Browns by 3]

The Rams have the worst record in the worst division in the NFL. The Browns have the next-to-last ranked running game in the league, but the top ranked pass defense.

–RJ’s Pick: Cleveland by 8

Pittsburgh 6-3 at Cincinnati 6-2 1:00 PM [Line: Steelers by 3]

The Bengals are winners of their last five, making them the hottest team in the AFC. The Steelers have allowed at least 17 points in seven of their nine games this season.

–RJ’s Pick: Cincinnati by 4

Baltimore 6-2 at Seattle 2-6 4:05 PM [Line: Ravens by 6.5]

The Ravens have the AFC’s second best point differential. The Seahawks have lost three straight. Expect a blowout, possibly a shutout.

–RJ’s Pick: Baltimore by 20

New York Giants 6-2 at San Francisco 7-1 4:15 PM [Line: 49ers by 3.5]

The Giants shocked the Patriots in Gillette Stadium last week, 24-20. The 49ers have held teams to 11 points or less four times this season.

–RJ’s Pick: New York Giants by 5

Detroit 6-2 at Chicago 5-3 4:15 PM [Line: Bears by 3]

Detroit won the Week Five meeting between these two teams, 24-13 on Monday Night Football. The Lions are 4-0 on the road this season, and are well rested coming off their Bye Week. The Bears have won three in a row. It’s very likely that one of these two teams will make the playoffs, and the outcome of this game could very well determine which team that is.

–RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 6

New England 5-3 at New York Jets 5-3 8:20 PM [Line: Jets by 2]

The winner of this matchup will be at least tied for the division lead in the AFC East. The Patriots beat the Jets earlier this season in Week Five by a score of 30-21. Jets QB Mark Sanchez has had a passer rating of at least 85 in seven of eight games this season. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league.

–RJ’s Pick: New York Jets by 7

Monday, November 14

Minnesota 2-6 at Green Bay 8-0 8:30 PM [Line: Packers by 12.5]

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 24 touchdown passes and just three INTs this season. His lowest passer rating for a game this season was 111.4 in Week Three against the Bears in Chicago. The Vikings are 0-3 against division rivals so far this season.

–RJ’s Pick: Green Bay by 24

(If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.)

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About RJ

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Oakland 24, SD 17 – RJ 0-1 [1-0 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    NO 26, Falcons 23 (in OT) – RJ 1-1 [2-0 ATS]

    Tennessee 30, Carolina 3 – RJ 2-1 [3-0 ATS]

    Steelers 24, Bengals 17 – RJ 2-2 [3-1 ATS]

    Rams 13, Browns 12 – RJ 2-3 [3-2 ATS]

    Dallas 44, Bills 7 – RJ 3-3 [3-3 ATS]

    Jaguars 17, Colts 3 – RJ 4-3 [4-3 ATS]

    Broncos 17, KC 10 – RJ 5-3 [5-3 ATS]

    Miami 20, Redskins 9 – RJ 5-4 [5-4 ATS]

    Arizona 21, Eagles 17 – RJ 5-5 [6-4 ATS]

    Houston 37, TB 9 – TJ 6-5 [7-4 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    Seattle 22, Ravens 17 – RJ 6-6 [7-5 ATS]

    SF 27, Giants 20 – RJ 6-7 [7-6 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Bears 37, Lions 13 – RJ 6-8 [7-7 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    Patriots 37, Jets 16 – RJ 6-9 [7-8 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Score:

    GB 45, Vikings 7 – RJ 7-9 [8-8 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week 10:

    Allen
    10-6
    Golic
    5-11
    Hoge
    7-9
    Jaworski
    6-9
    Mortensen
    7-9
    Schefter
    6-10
    Schlereth
    8-8
    Wickersham
    9-7
    Accuscore
    9-7
    Pick ‘em
    10-6

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through ten weeks:

    Allen
    96-50
    Golic
    95-51
    Hoge
    93-53
    Jaworski
    92-44
    Mortensen
    84-62
    Schefter
    88-58
    Schlereth
    94-52
    Wickersham
    93-53
    Accuscore
    100-46
    Pick ‘em
    99-47

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    RJ through ten weeks:

    91-55 straight-up

    73-68-5 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    I probably won’t have my Week 11 column up by tomorrow night, so…

    RJ’s pick for Thursday, November 17th, 2011:

    Jets 5-4 at Broncos 4-5 8:20 PM [Line: Jets by 6.5]

    Tim Tebow for MVP.

    –RJ’s Pick: Denver by 1