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RJ’s 2011 NFL Season Picks: Week Four

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I went 8-8 last week straight-up, and 8-8 against the spread as well. For the season, that puts me at 31-17 straight-up, and 24-21-3 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Four:

Sunday, October 2nd

Detroit 3-0 at Dallas 2-1 – 1:00 PM [Line: Cowboys by 1]

The Lions have scored the second most points in the NFC. The Cowboys won without scoring a touchdown last week against Washington.

RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 3

Carolina 1-2 at Chicago 1-2 – 1:00 PM [Line: Bears by 6.5]

The Panthers got their first win of the season last week against Jacksonville. The Bears lost at home to Green Bay last week, 27-17.

RJ’s Pick: Chicago by 10

Buffalo 3-0 at Cincinnati 1-2 – 1:00 PM [Line: Bills by 3]

The Bills shocked New England last week, 34-31. The Bengals are the only team in the AFC North with a losing record.

RJ’s Pick: Buffalo by 8

Tennessee 2-1 at Cleveland 2-1 – 1:00 PM [Line: Pick ‘em]

The Titans have allowed the second fewest points in the NFL. The Browns narrowly beat Miami last week, 17-16.

RJ’s Pick: Tennessee by 9

Minnesota 0-3 at Kansas City 0-3 – 1:00 PM [Line: Vikings by 1.5]

The Vikings blew a double-digit halftime lead for the third straight week last Sunday, eventually falling to Detroit in overtime. The Chiefs have scored just 27 points through three games, fewest in the league.

RJ’s Pick: Minnesota by 5

Washington 2-1 at St. Louis 0-3 – 1:00 PM [Line: Redskins by 1.5]

The Redskins suffered their first defeat of the season last week, losing to division rival Dallas on MNF. The Rams have the worst point differential in the NFC.

RJ’s Pick: Washington by 6

New Orleans 2-1 at Jacksonville 1-2 – 1:00 PM [Line: Saints by 6.5]

The Saints have the second best passing offense in the league. The Jaguars have the least productive passing offense in the NFL.

RJ’s Pick: New Orleans by 11

Pittsburgh 2-1 at Houston 2-1 – 1:00 PM [Line: Texans by 4]

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has more INTs than TDs through three games; he has also lost four fumbles. The Texans allowed 40 points last week; they had given up just 20 total points through their first two games.

RJ’s Pick: Houston by 1

San Francisco 2-1 at Philadelphia 1-2 – 1:00 PM [Line: Eagles by 9]

The 49ers are in first place in the weak NFC West (combined record so far: 4-8). The Eagles are in last place in the tough NFC East (combined record: 7-5).

RJ’s Pick: Philadelphia by 2

New York Giants 2-1 at Arizona 1-2 – 4:05 PM [Line: Giants by 1]

Giants QB Eli Manning has a passer rating of 104.3 through three games. The Cardinals lost at Seattle last week, 13-10.

RJ’s Pick: New York Giants by 7

Atlanta 1-2 at Seattle 1-2 – 4:05 PM [Line: Falcons by 4]

Falcons RB Michael Turner is averaging 5.6 yards per carry so far this season. The Seahawks have scored just three touchdowns in 12 quarters of football.

RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 13

Miami 0-3 at San Diego 2-1 – 4:15 PM [Line: Chargers by 7]

The winless Dolphins are the only team in the AFC East with a losing record or a negative point differential. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has thrown six interceptions already this year.

RJ’s Pick: San Diego by 15

New England 2-1 at Oakland 2-1 – 4:15 PM [Line: Patriots by 4]

The Patriots have the NFL’s best offense in terms of total yards per game. The Raiders have the NFL’s top rushing offense.

RJ’s Pick: New England by 9

Denver 1-2 at Green Bay 3-0 – 4:15 PM [Line: Packers by 12]

The Broncos lost to Tennessee last week, 17-14. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has an incredible passer rating of 120.9 coming in to Week Four.

RJ’s Pick: Green Bay by 20

New York Jets 2-1 at Baltimore 2-1 – 8:20 PM [Line: Ravens by 3.5]

The Jets lost to Oakland last week, 34-24. The Ravens have the best point differential in the AFC.

RJ’s Pick: Baltimore by 8

Monday, October 3rd

Indianapolis 0-3 at Tampa Bay 2-1 – 8:30 PM [Line: Buccaneers by 10]

The Colts lost a close one to Pittsburgh last week, 23-20. The Buccaneers edged Atlanta in Week Three, 16-13.

RJ’s Pick: Tampa Bay by 4

If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds and ESPN’s NFL “Expert” Picks.

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About RJ

  • C2E

    I’m 35-13 straight up so far. I think we picked the same this week except for the Lions/Cowboys. My picks:

    Cowboys over Lions
    Saints over Jaguars
    Eagles over 49ers
    Redskins over Rams
    Titans over Browns
    Bills over Bengals
    Vikings over Chiefs
    Bears over Panthers
    Texans over Steelers
    Giants over Cardinals
    Falcons over Seahawks
    Chargers over Dolphins
    Packers over Broncos
    Patriots over Raiders
    Ravens over Jets
    Buccaneers over Colts

  • RJ

    Final Scores:

    Lions 34, Dallas 30 – RJ 1-0 [1-0 ATS]

    Bears 34, Carolina 29 – RJ 2-0 [1-1 ATS]

    Bengals 23, Bills 20 – RJ 2-1 [1-2 ATS]

    Titans 31, Browns 13 – RJ 3-1 [2-2 ATS]

    KC 22, Vikings 17 – RJ 3-2 [2-3 ATS]

    Redskins 17, Rams 10 – RJ 4-2 [3-3 ATS]

    NO 23, Jaguars 10 – RJ 5-2 [4-3 ATS]

    Texans 17, Steelers 10 – RJ 6-2 [4-4 ATS]

    SF 24, Eagles 23 – RJ 6-3 [5-4 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Scores:

    Giants 31, Arizona 27 – RJ 7-3 [6-4 ATS]

    Falcons 30, Seattle 28 – RJ 8-3 [6-5 ATS]

    SD 26, Miami 16 – RJ 9-3 [7-5 ATS]

    NE 31, Oakland 19 – RJ 10-3 [8-5 ATS]

    GB 49, Denver 23 – RJ 11-3 [9-5 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Score:

    Ravens 34, Jets 17 – RJ 12-3 [10-5 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Score:

    TB 24, Colts 17 – RJ 13-3 [11-5 ATS]

  • RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week Four:

    Allen
    11-5
    Golic
    12-4
    Hoge
    13-3
    Jaworski
    11-4
    Mortensen
    12-4
    Schefter
    10-6
    Schlereth
    13-3
    Wickersham
    11-5
    Accuscore
    12-4
    Pick ‘em
    13-3

  • RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through four weeks:

    Allen
    42-22
    Golic
    47-17
    Hoge
    46-18
    Jaworski
    42-18
    Mortensen
    40-24
    Schefter
    44-20
    Schlereth
    47-17
    Wickersham
    45-19
    Accuscore
    44-20
    Pick ‘em
    46-18

  • RJ

    RJ through four weeks:

    44-20 straight-up

    35-26-3 against the spread