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RJ’s 2011 NFL Season Picks: Week Three

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I went 13-3 last week straight-up, and 5-9-2 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 23-9 straight-up, and 16-13-3 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Three:


Houston 2-0 at New Orleans 1-1 1:00PM [Line: Saints by 4]

The Texans have allowed just 20 points, fewest in the NFL. The Saints are the only team in the NFC South with a positive point differential.

RJ’s Pick: Houston by 3

New York Giants 1-1 at Philadelphia 1-1 1:00PM [Line: Eagles by 7.5]

The Giants were accused of faking injuries in their win over the Rams last week. The Eagles may be without QB Michael Vick.

RJ’s Pick: Philadelphia by 4

Jacksonville 1-1 at Carolina 0-2 1:00PM [Line: Panthers by 3.5]

The Jaguars did not score a touchdown against the Jets last week. Panthers’ rookie QB Cam Newton has thrown for over 400 yards in each of his first two NFL regular season games.

RJ’s Pick: Carolina by 8

New England 2-0 at Buffalo 2-0 1:00PM [Line: Patriots by 9]

The Patriots have the NFL’s top offense in terms of total yards and passing yards. The Bills are first in the league in rushing yards per game.

RJ’s Pick: New England by 2

Miami 0-2 at Cleveland 1-1 1:00PM [Line: Browns by 2.5]

The Dolphins have started the season 0-2 at home after going 1-7 at home last season. The Browns are averaging just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt.

RJ’s Pick: Miami by 5

San Francisco 1-1 at Cincinnati 1-1 1:00PM [Line: Bengals by 3]

The 49ers are averaging the second fewest total yards per game in the NFL. Bengals’ rookie QB Andy “The Red Menace” Dalton has a passer rating of 105.7 so far this season.

RJ’s Pick: Cincinnati by 7

Denver 1-1 at Tennessee 1-1 1:00PM [Line: Titans by 7]

The Broncos are a little shorthanded at wide receiver, so they signed Quan Cosby earlier this week. Titans’ RB Chris Johnson has just 77 yards on 33 carries so far this season.

RJ’s Pick: Tennessee by 2

Detroit 2-0 at Minnesota 0-2 1:00PM [Line: Lions by 3.5]

The Lions have the NFL’s best point differential. The Vikings lost at home last week despite leading 17-0 at halftime.

RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 10

Baltimore 1-1 at St. Louis 0-2 4:05PM [Line: Ravens by 4]

The Ravens have allowed the fewest points in the AFC North. The Rams have allowed the most points in the NFC West.

RJ’s Pick: Baltimore by 9

New York Jets 2-0 at Oakland 1-1 4:05PM [Line: Jets by 3]

The Jets are averaging just 3.0 rushing yards per carry. The Raiders blew a 21-3 halftime lead last week against the Bills.

RJ’s Pick: New York Jets by 11

Kansas City 0-2 at San Diego 1-1 4:05PM [Line: Chargers by 15]

The Chiefs have scored just one touchdown so far this season, and have the worst point differential in the NFL. The Chargers rank third in the league in total yards per game.

RJ’s Pick: San Diego by 6

Arizona 1-1 at Seattle 0-2 4:15PM [Line: Cardinals by 3]

The Cardinals lost by a single point to the Redskins last week. The Seahawks have the worst point differential in the NFC.

RJ’s Pick: Arizona by 8

Atlanta 1-1 at Tampa Bay 1-1 4:15PM [Line: Buccaneers by 1.5]

The Falcons battled back against the Eagles last week, scoring the final two touchdowns to win 35-31. The Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 3

Green Bay 2-0 at Chicago 1-1 4:15PM [Line: Packers by 3.5]

The Packers have scored nine touchdowns through two games, tied for the most in the NFC. Bears’ QB Jay Cutler has already been sacked 11 times this season.

RJ’s Pick: Green Bay by 1

Pittsburgh 1-1 at Indianapolis 0-2 8:20PM [Line: Steelers by 10.5]

The Steelers have scored the fewest points in the AFC North. The Colts have the 29th ranked offense in the league.

RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 14


Washington 2-0 at Dallas 1-1 8:30PM [Line: Cowboys by 6]

Redskins’ rookie RB Roy Helu is averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo has a broken rib and a punctured lung, but he may still make the start under center on Monday Night Football.

RJ’s Pick: Cowboys by 3

If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds and ESPN’s NFL “Expert” Picks.

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About RJ

  • ESPN’s NFL “experts” through three weeks:

    Pick ’em

  • RJ through three weeks:

    31-17 straight-up

    24-21-3 against the spread

  • ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week Three:

    Pick ’em

  • Final Score:

    Dallas 18, Redskins 16 – RJ 8-8 [8-8 ATS]

  • C2E

    Actually, I’m 11-4 at the moment. I missed on Pats/Bills, Giants/Eagles, Falcons/Bucs and Cardinals/Seahawks. Got the rest!

  • C2E

    I’ve got the Cowboys tonight. Didn’t post picks earlier (busy) but I’m 10-5 at the moment for the week.

  • Final Score:

    Steelers 23, Colts 20 – RJ 7-8 [7-8 ATS]

  • Final Scores:

    TB 16, Atlanta 13 – RJ 5-8 [7-6 ATS]

    Packers 27, Bears 17 – RJ 6-8 [7-7 ATS]

  • Final Scores:

    SD 20, KC 17 – RJ 5-6 [7-4 ATS]

    Seattle 13, Arizona 10 – RJ 5-7 [7-5 ATS]

  • Final Scores:

    Ravens 37, Rams 7 – RJ 4-5 [6-3 ATS]

    Raiders 34, Jets 24 – RJ 4-6 [6-4 ATS]

  • Patrick

    No way the Cowboys win. Even if Romo is able to play, the Cowboys are too banged up to beat Grossman and a confident Redskins team.

  • Final Scores:

    Titans 17, Broncos 14 – RJ 2-5 [5-2 ATS]

    Lions 26, Vikings 23 (in OT) – RJ 3-5 [5-3 ATS]

  • Final Scores:

    Browns 17, Miami 16 – RJ 1-4 [4-1 ATS]

    SF 13, Bengals 8 – RJ 1-5 [4-2 ATS]

  • Final Scores:

    NO 40, Houston 33 – RJ 0-1 [0-1 ATS]

    Giants 29, Philly 16 – RJ 0-2 [1-1 ATS]

    Carolina 16, Jaguars 10 – RJ 1-2 [2-1 ATS]

    Bills 34, NE 31 – RJ 1-3 [3-1 ATS]

  • zingzing

    heh. vikings. amazing…

  • zingzing

    “You perceive it that way because it only gets intense attention here during the World Cup.”

    oh, i know all that. you pointed out exactly what i meant to point out. i can’t quite get behind the mls. and i don’t care enough about any of the european teams (other than hating man u) to follow any of those leagues. the new york team was supposed have a good season but the highly-touted mexican defender we picked up has been an arrogant bust. still, they’re in contention for the playoffs, so if they make it, maybe i’ll try to get behind them. fairweather, i know…

    but yeah, soccer only really comes alive for the world cup. i do follow the usmnt (and now the women’s as well) with religious intensity, but it’s a slow boil until the wc, when it turns into raging patriotic jihad. fuck ghana. i hate ghana.

  • Incidentally, I am no longer receiving email notifications when my articles get new comments.

  • I’ve got Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Steve Smith, and Jeremy Maclin on my Fantasy team. 2-0 so far.

  • Jordan Richardson

    Go Whitecaps!?

  • sounds like someone’s taken to the other side’s football.

    Only the NFL, really. Don’t really care about college football, it’s just that Fresno State is our local team so one pays a bit more attention.

    There was a brief period when David Carr was our quarterback that we toyed with crashing the big time. We beat several BCS teams – and there was one memorable game where we lost narrowly to the then #1-ranked USC in an epic that finished 53-52, or some such ridiculous score. Our downfall was that we would then turn round from one of those giant-killing acts and lose to teams in our conference that we should have been beating. So we ended up playing in things like the Silicon Valley Bowl, the Three-Day-Old Wilted Salad Bowl, the Toilet Bowl, and other underwhelming end-of-season invitationals, rather than on the big stage.

    soccer is my true love, but it only really happens once every four years

    You perceive it that way because it only gets intense attention here during the World Cup. That may change as MLS starts to attract more top players who aren’t winding down their careers, and now that ESPN, Fox Soccer and other channels are broadcasting an ever-increasing number of games. But in the meantime I assure you that for most of the rest of the world it’s as much a living and breathing part of the culture as baseball or football is in the US.

  • zingzing

    sounds like someone’s taken to the other side’s football.

    yay! soccer is my true love, but it only really happens once every four years, and it’s always disappointing (a feeling you should know); football is always and forever.

  • Yeah, you never know with QBs. Fresno State’s own David Carr was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread a few years back. Should have won the Heisman but didn’t go to the right school. Got drafted by the Texans and promptly disappeared without trace. Last I heard he was third string QB for the Giants or something.

    His little brother’s now QBing for the Bulldogs, so we’ll see how that goes. We’re 2-2 so far, which isn’t too shabby.

  • zingzing

    to be clear, manning is probably the best #1 pick ever made. while leaf would have been the worst, and is probably the worst #2 pick ever made.

  • zingzing

    thing is, there was a major argument as to who should be drafted first between leaf and peyton manning in that draft (’98, maybe).

    quarterbacks are a crapshoot. leaf isn’t the worst ever. but he’s certainly the biggest bust. and he was a dick for a while. but he seems to have grown up a bit now.

  • Confession: I Googled “worst quarterback ever”.

    Still, having read about him I’m rather sorry I missed his career. Even as a (now) Chargers fan the comedy would have been worthwhile.

  • zingzing

    heh. pretty good references for a brit. ryan leaf… that man. the thwarted millionaire.

    i think i had first pick in the draft for my fantasy league, but i missed the draft and let the computer do it for me. took adrian peterson… which i wouldn’t have taken, being a vikings fan. he’s great, but if he’s on my team, he’ll get injured. i tried to trade him… but no luck. i think everyone smelled my fan desperation.

    2-0 so far, and favored in nearly every game for the season. i’m gonna stomp.

  • She had first pick in the draft, and didn’t half piss everybody off when she snapped up Vick.

    She should be set if he’s even half as good this season as he was last. The guy was an absolute machine: made Tom Brady look like Ryan Leaf.

  • zingzing

    your wife hates bitches, doc. i’d address that with her. meh. everyone deserves a second chance, and vick has been a model citizen as far as i’ve seen. but i do enjoy watching him get hit. go gints!

    on more important things, i don’t think the vikings are going to pull out of their 2nd half malaise this week. i was thinking maybe letting mcnabb start and then bringing in ponder for the 2nd half might be a good idea. mcnabb gets it done early, but he can’t goddamn finish a game. it’s pathetic. pisses me off.

  • I’ll bet. 😉

  • Oh, good, my wife has him on her fantasy team.

  • Looks like Vick is playing.